Kansas City Chiefs (7-3, 8-2 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (0-10, 5-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -7.5 (42.5)
Significant Injuries
Kansas City: TE Anthony Fasano (questionable– knee), CB Jamell Fleming (questionable– hamstring), WR Donnie Avery (out– groin), WR A.J. Jenkins (out– shoulder), CB Chris Owens (out– knee)
Oakland: G Gabe Jackson (questionable– knee), TE David Ausberry (out– foot), CB T.J. Carrie (out– ankle), S Jonathan Dowling (out– back), CB Carlos Rogers (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC West opponents
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC West opponents
Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Kansas City’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Oakland’s last 5 home games
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. Who do you want to trust with your money: a 1st-place team that’s 8-2 against the number this year, or the NFL’s only winless team? Not only have the Chiefs been winning, they’ve covered in 5 straight games despite having to lay numbers like 7.5 (vs. St. Louis) and 9.5 (vs. NY Jets). They’ve also covered in 11 of their last 13 trips to Oakland, and they badly need a win on Thursday night to maintain position in the crowded AFC playoff race. This is a matchup between a really good team and a terrible team, and it should be bet accordingly.
2. The Chiefs have one of the league’s best defenses, a unit that ranks 2nd in points allowed (17.1 ppg) and 1st against the pass. The Raiders, meanwhile, have the NFL’s worst offense, and it’s really inarguable, as they rank 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in both yards per game and points per game.
3. Oakland has a porous defense that surrenders over 26 points per game and the Kansas City offense has played very well of late, producing 23 points or more in 4 of their past 5 outings. Furthermore, the weakness of the Oakland defense is against the run– they rank a dismal 27th in rush yards allowed– and the Chiefs have a run-first offense that produces over 140 yards per game on the ground.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The Raiders have quietly been very competitive since their Week 5 bye, as they’ve had a genuine chance to win 5 of their past 6 games and haven’t lost any of those five games by more than 11 points. Now they’re a substantial home underdog against division-rival Kansas City and the underdog always does well in this rivalry, covering 11 times in the past 14 meetings between the two teams.
2. The Raiders have really improved defensively since the beginning of the season, as evidenced by their performance last week, when they held an explosive San Diego offense to just 13 points. They should be able to build on their recent success against the one-dimensional Kansas City offense, a unit that ranks 31st in pass yards per game and has produced 24 points or fewer in 7 of their 10 games this season.
3. While the Raiders have yet to win a game, they’ve been a great team to back this season anytime they’re getting a touchdown or more, going 5-1 against the number in the six games in which they’ve been underdogs of at least 6.5 points. Why then, in a primetime home game against a division rival, should we expect anything different this time around?
Prediction
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