20-1 IN SECONDITIS SEQUENCE: Talk about neck and neck! It was neck and neck and head at big prices in three races yesterday, all going against Daqman. He’s famous for his sequences, but this one he wants to forget. The last two were big-value spots in BETDAQ races at Kempton Park last night. His seconditis included:
2nd 5-1 Major Jack (neck)
2nd 20-1 Cladocera (neck)
2nd 10-1 Xinbama (head)
6-1 MICKEY TAKES THE CAKE: An appropriate epitaph to the day was Daqman’s sole success, Tikkandemickey (WON 6-1), at Hexham. Daqman even ventured over to Ireland for some value and turned up Mike McCann. Where did he finish? You guessed it! Second, at 6-1.
HIDDEN VALUE IN THE MONEY-BOX PLAN
My strike rate on 27 straight-stakes bankers was around 75% (20 winners). And I’m now going to bet only horses at morning offers which give me a 75% or better return.
Staking will be as follows: 20 points win in the orange at the time of writing of 1.75 or better, 10 points win after a winner (2:1 repeated after a loser). Returns settled at SP.
Alongside it, from Boxing Day, I will be looking at the races that produce Cheltenham and Aintree winners, and logging the horses successful in these races with ante-post value in mind nearer the time.
Each new banker bet will have a Daq Multiples double on something else running that day which is offered at around 3.0 or better, with the intention of levering the short-priced bet.
In fact, therefore, I shall be trying to hunt down safe bets in the region of evens or better for the bankers to allow for the stake on the double, the whole to be held in the Cheltenham wallet, a festival money-box.
What could stuff the wallet, fill the money-box to overflowing, would be a winning banker coupled with success in one of the big handicaps, for which this column has a high strike rate over Pricewise! More about that tomorrow or Saturday. Depends when Pricewise dares come to the table.
12.55 Thurles This race has gone to top-class animals – War of Attrition, Joncol, Roi Du Mee – and only Hidden Cyclone (1.92 on BETDAQ this morning) and the hard-to-win-with Foildubh have anywhere near their rating at the time they won this.
Hidden Cyclone is more than a stone clear of the remainder, and the Ryanair runner-up, second to Sire De Grugy at Ascot, has form after long breaks of 111.
Home Farm is the pick of the trio of seven-year-olds with potential. Like Hidden Cyclone, he is favoured by the conditions of the race (working well but, on past performance, may need the run).
PIPE SMILES AT HOME AND MILES AWAY
MARKET RASEN Henryville (2.05) is a stone higher than for his last win over shorter on good ground. He failed to give the weight away, stepped up to this 3m on the last day, and now has it to do again in the mud.
First Fandango is claimed off after going up a stone-and-a-half in two races. It all suggests an opening for a young horse at the bottom of the weights.
Home Run, 111 first time out, is in good form at home, has won five times on soft-heavy, and this step up to 3m could be the making of him.
CHEPSTOW Older exposed horses with high weights also gives Home Run’s stable-mate, Smiles For Miles (1.40), a chance to get off the mark, blinkered for the first time.
I’m betting that David Pipe can land me one or both of Home Run and Smiles For Miles, and I thought there was a similar case to be made for Paul Nicholls at Wincanton (isn’t there always).
WINCANTON Nicholls should drive back down the road to Ditcheat with something from the big, bold chasing type It’s A Close Call (1.50) and Pressie’s Girl (3.00).
I’m not madly keen on mares’ novices, so I shall use Pressie’s Girl only as a saver for It’s A Close Call, a powerful Pointer who should be a price in such a big field.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each horse backed to win 20 points, except the banker and double)
MONEY-BOX BET: BANKER 20pts win (nap) HIDDEN CYCLONE (12.55 Thurles) and 2pts Daq Multiples double HIDDEN CYCLONE (12.55 Thurles) with HOME RUN (2.05 Market Rasen).
BET 6pts win SMILES FOR MILES (1.40 Chepstow)
BET 11pts win IT’S A CLOSE CALL (1.50 Wincanton) and 2.75pts win (stakes saver) PRESSIES GIRL (3.00 Wincanton)
BET 8.5pts win HOME RUN (2.05 Market Rasen)
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