Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, 9-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -3 (45)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: LB Arthur Brown (out– thigh), DT Timmy Jernigan (out– foot), OT Eugene Monroe (out– ankle)
Pittsburgh: RB Le’Veon Bell (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games
Baltimore is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last 7 Wildcard Round games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Baltimore’s last 4 games overall
The OVER is 17-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 playoff games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 games following a win
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens have won 3 of their past 4 games and they’re always a good bet when faced with quality opposition, covering in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with winning records. Plus, they’ve already proven that they can beat this Pittsburgh team, and beat them convincingly– back in Week 2 the Ravens held the Steelers to a season-low 6 points in a 20-point win. And remember, 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 3 points or fewer. Smart money’s with the ‘dog here.
2. Defense wins championships. It’s a time-honored truth in professional football. Well, there’s no doubt about which of these two teams has the better defense: Baltimore ranks 8th in the league in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed (18.9 ppg), while Pittsburgh ranks 18th in total defense and a dismal 27th against the pass. Both of these teams have capable offenses that rank in the top-10 in points scored, but if it comes down to the play of the defenses– which it always seems to in January– the Ravens are at a definite advantage. Maybe that’s why they’re 5-0 against the spread in their last five playoff games.
3. While Pittsburgh’s success on offense this season has widely been attributed to the play-calling of Todd Haley and the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger, the true heartbeat of the unit has been halfback Le’Veon Bell, an all-purpose threat who has accounted for 2,215 total yards and 11 touchdowns this year. Bell is a one-man show in the Steelers’ backfield, logging 290 rushing attempts and catching 83 passes, which is a phenomenally high rate of usage. Only two players have more rushing attempts than Bell this season and he’s caught more balls than guys like Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green. He’s been the cornerstone of the Pittsburgh offense, and he’s out with a knee injury this week after being hit by Cincinnati’s Reggie Nelson last Sunday night. The Ravens are excellent against the run– only 3 teams leaguewide surrender fewer rushing yards per game– so without Bell the Steelers are likely to become extremely one-dimensional on offense. It’s tough to beat a good defense when that defense knows what’s coming, and that’s the predicament the Steelers will find themselves in on Saturday.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers charge into these playoffs playing their best football, as they’ve won 4 straight games and 5 of their past 6. The Ravens, on the other hand, have been struggling despite facing an extremely soft schedule down the stretch– their last three games were against the 3-13 Jaguars, a Houston team that had just signed its quarterback off the street a few days prior, and a Cleveland team that had also been forced to resort to a practice-squad quarterback, one who had never before appeared in an NFL game. Well, the Ravens were trailing Jacksonville at halftime before winning by 8, they lost to Houston by double-digits in a game that could’ve cost them a playoff berth, and they squeaked by the Browns last week after trailing for most of the game. In other words, there’s little evidence to suggest that they’ll be able to come into Pittsburgh and put up a fight against the red-hot Steelers this week. Besides, when these teams met back in Week 9 it wasn’t even competitive, as Pittsburgh cruised to a 43-23 win. Expect more of the same this time around.
2. Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the NFL in both total offense and passing offense this season, with Ben Roethlisberger lighting up opposing secondaries to the tune of 302 pass yards per game. Big Ben is surely salivating at the thought of another meeting with Baltimore’s leaky secondary, a unit that has been the Achilles heel of the Ravens’ defense all year long. The last time Roethlisberger faced the Ravens– back in Week 9– he threw for 340 yards and an eye-popping 6 touchdowns.
3. The Steelers have steadily improved on defense this season and they’ve been especially good against the run, ranking 6th in the league in rush yards allowed. The Baltimore offense is moving in the other direction, as they’ve scored 20 points or fewer in each of their past 3 games despite facing three opponents who all rank in the bottom-half of the league in total defense. The Ravens simply won’t be able to keep up with the high-scoring Steelers, just as they were unable to the last time these teams met.
Prediction
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