BETDAQ kick off the new NFL season offering a wealth of markets, including the opportunity to back and lay on all eight divisions. But who will win the Super Bowl?
Last season’s runner-up, the New England Patriots face the easiest schedule of any team, taking on just four teams who boasted a winning record last term.
Their season will be defined by how they fare in the playoffs, because it looks a routine path to the post-season again.
They play in the anaemic AFC East where each of their rivals has obvious flaws; rebuilding Miami will struggle to score points (they play seven games against teams who ranked in the top 10 defensively last season), Buffalo have had one winning season since 1999 and lack pass-catching depth, and the New York Jets traded for Tim Tebow. Seriously.
The Jets also face playoff teams Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston and the Patriots in their first seven games, which should mean limited passer Tebow could supplant Mark Sanchez by October 28. And we’re not even kidding.
New England are as big as 7.4 with BETDAQ to win the Super Bowl, in large part because of a suspect defence (21.4 points per game conceded last term). Pass rushers Andre Carter and Mark Anderson are gone – and there hasn’t been too much of an upgrade. Their secondary is still horrible.
Yet they should still go on the Super Bowl short-list as a back-to-lay proposition. They tackle just one team who were in the top 10 in total offense in 2011 (Houston, who ranked 10th) so that should give the new faces – they took defenders with the first six selections in the draft – time to bed in.
Only a perfect storm of collective boredom, divine intervention, replacement referees, opponents’ videotaping their signals at the line of scrimmage or an injury to quarterback Tom Brady will prevent them from winning at least 11 games.
While you could make a case for both AFC North contenders Pittsburgh and Baltimore, age is a concern. Seven of Pittsburgh’s 11 projected defensive starters are over 30 and the total combined age of the Ravens’ projected starting offensive line is 159 – conventional wisdom states that if the combined age of your offensive line is greater than 150, a steep decline may occur. They also have the fourth-toughest schedule.
The chemistry between Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and incoming offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who lasted less than three seasons as head coach at Kansas City, could also be cause for concern, although injury to running back Rashard Mendenhall and the protracted holdout of receiver Mike Wallace (who finally arrived in camp last week) is likely to have a more detrimental impact.
While free agency hasn’t been kind to Houston, an easy schedule – facing just six teams who boasted a winning record last season – means there’s no reason why they should not win the underwhelming AFC South.
One big question mark is the offensive line, which must replace two starters. Still, the playoffs are almost certainly assured. But their price reflects that.
Instead, have a dabble on San Diego. Last season, the Chargers – perhaps the NFL’s biggest underachievers – finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs for the second year in succession, and despite an unpopular move with many fans, team president Dean Spanos decided to keep head coach Norv Turner and general manager A.J. Smith. Nothing short of a deep playoff run this season will earn them another reprieve.
They could easily emerge as a contender once again. With a new receiving corps that includes Robert Meacham and their glaring defensive needs addressed well in the draft, expect Philip Rivers and the Chargers to have a big bounce-back year.
Again, grab the big prices now – the Chargers were trading at 42.0 last night – and take a further review come the playoffs.
Which teams will be in the Super Bowl race from the NFC is far cloudier, but Green Bay and Atlanta are worth a bet.
The Falcons’ passing game will improve greatly this season with receiver Julio Jones in his second year. But it is on the other side of the ball that the real difference will be made. Enter coordinator Mike Nolan, the missing piece in the jigsaw (he really is that significant).
Depth at the skill positions is a concern, but no more so than it is with New England, for instance.
In each of their past two playoff appearances, Atlanta have lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. With New Orleans facing turmoil off the field and a brutal slate of opponents on it, the Falcons could easily take the NFC South with 10 wins or more and make a deep post-season run. They were trading at 30.0 on Tuesday night.
Green Bay are a more obvious choice. The Packers scored 560 total points in 2011, the most in the NFL (an average of 35 points per game), most of that on the arm of Aaron Rodgers. Their running game should be improved with the acquisition of free-agent running back Cedric Benson from Cincinnati and glaring needs were addressed in the draft; their first five picks went on defensive players.
It will be surprising if they do not take the NFC North with at least 11 wins.
Tonight, the Giants take on the Cowboys in New York, with the hosts a four-point BETDAQ favourite. Rain is expected, so rather than wade in on a lofty points total, which is usually the case when these two meet in New York, lay the Over 46 points total.
Giants cornerback Michael Coe, a sixth-year veteran, will make his first start due to injuries to three players ahead of him on the depth chart and this is a significant advantage for the Cowboys, regardless of the fitness of Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant.
The Cowboys are worth a bet receiving the points, not least because they boast an excellent 7-2 record against Big Blue on the road in the month of September.
We will assess the remaining Week 1 games in Saturday’s update.
Super Bowl Suggestions:
New England
San Diego
Atlanta
Green Bay
Divisions Suggestions:
AFC East – Back New England
AFC South – Back Houston
AFC North – Lay Pittsburgh
AFC West – Lay Denver
NFC East – Lay New York Giants
NFC South – Back Atlanta
NFC North – Back Green Bay
NFC West – Back Seattle
Opening Night Suggestions
Lay NY Giants -4
Lay Over 46 total points
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