NFL WEEK 2: We’re off and running with the 2017 NFL season, as an entertaining Week 1 is now in the rearview mirror and we turn our attention to a Week 2 slate that features several intriguing matchups.
Houston and Cincinnati get it started on Thursday night with a game that is essentially an early-season Redemption Bowl: both teams have playoff aspirations, but their respective fan bases have to be thoroughly demoralized after ugly Week 1 defeats. Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson will likely get his first career start after replacing Tom Savage at halftime of Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville, and he’ll be facing a proud, veteran Bengals defense that will be looking to make a statement after being gashed by Baltimore. If there’s a silver lining for Watson, it may be that his counterpart, Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton, will have problems of his own contending with Houston’s formidable collection of pass-rushers. If you like defense, I have a feeling you’re going to love this game— BETDAQ has set the total at 38.5, the lowest of the week, and I think turnovers and/or defensive touchdowns are the only way the game goes Over.
But if you’re not too excited about the Bengals/Texans punt-fest, you’re likely to get plenty of relief on Sunday when a motivated Tom Brady takes his team to the Big Easy to face Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints. And that’s not the only marquee quarterback battle we get this week: the late game on Sunday brings us a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers travel to Atlanta for a showdown with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Here are a few thoughts on those games and a couple others:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (NE -6, 55.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans +6 at 1.91
The Patriots are getting overwhelming public support this week as a road favorite in New Orleans, with most assuming that the defending Super Bowl champs will easily outclass the defensively-challenged Saints. Of course, just about everyone who holds that opinion thought it was a foregone conclusion that the Pats would cruise to an easy victory over Kansas City last week, and we all know how that worked out.
While I do expect Tom Brady to slice up a New Orleans defense that put up little resistance against an underwhelming Minnesota attack last week, it’s important to remember that the guy on the other sideline is pretty good, too. Brees and the Saints led the NFL in total offense in 2016, the third consecutive year that they’ve ranked either first or second in that stat. And they’re particularly good on the fast track of the Superdome, with Brees averaging an eye-popping 342.8 pass yards per game at home last year compared to “just” 291.5 on the road. Considering we just saw the New England defense surrender 368 passing yards and 42 points to Alex Smith and the Chiefs, I’m not sure I feel too good about their chances in this spot. And they might be without defensive captain Dont’a Hightower, who sprained his knee in last week’s loss to Kansas City. All things considered, the home ‘dog feels like the right play here.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Pit -5.5, 45.5)
Recommendation: Minnesota +5.5 at 1.91; Minnesota ML at 3.15
The Steelers were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl this season, so I certainly understand what they’re capable of and why many expect them to easily handle Minnesota this week. But they were a bit rusty against the Browns last week, with Ben Roethlisberger misfiring on several routine throws and Le’Veon Bell looking exactly like a guy who missed all of training camp, which, of course, he did. Pittsburgh finished the game with just 290 total yards against a Cleveland defense that was absolutely terrible last season.
Now the Steelers will face one of the NFL’s elite defensive units– the Vikings are well-coached, physical, and they have Pro Bowl talent at all three levels. In Week 1 they kept the high-flying Saints out of the endzone for the first three and a half quarters, totally shutting down the New Orleans rushing attack and forcing Drew Brees to chip away with underneath routes. It’s going to be tough sledding for Big Ben and Co. against these Vikings, and the Minnesota offense, which struggled last season, was dazzling in Week 1, with Sam Bradford throwing for 346 yards (only 5 incompletions!) and rookie running back Dalvin Cook exploding for 127 yards on 22 carries. This is a very dangerous-feeling Minnesota team, and based on what we saw last week I’m not sure the Steelers have found their “sea legs” yet. An upset is a definite possibility here.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ DENVER BRONCOS (Dal -2, 42.5)
Recommendation: Under 42.5 at 1.87
The season started on a positive note for both the Cowboys and Broncos, with each team defeating a division rival at home. Dallas put forth a particularly impressive performance, burying the Giants 19-3 on the strength of a 100-yard effort from Ezekiel Elliott, a typically efficient game from Dak Prescott, and a defense that totally smothered the Eli Manning-led New York offense. The Giants finished the game with just 233 total yards, including a mere 35 rushing yards on 12 attempts.
Denver, meanwhile, eked out a win over L.A. thanks to a similarly impressive defensive performance, holding Philip Rivers and the Chargers to fewer than 250 total yards and dictating the action throughout. The offense, however, was a different matter— it looks like the Broncos will once again have to grind it out with C.J. Anderson and a barely-adequate passing attack. Scoring is likely to be a recurring issue for this Denver team, as it was last season, and it won’t be easy against Dallas on Sunday. The defense, however, appears to be elite once again, especially in the secondary, and Dak Prescott is a dink-and-dunk passer who doesn’t challenge defenses downfield. This has all the makings of an ugly, low-scoring, run-heavy game. Turnovers will be the difference.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (Atl -3, 53.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta ML at 1.64
When these teams met in January’s NFC Championship game, the Green Bay defense was simply no match for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense. Ryan threw for 392 yards and 4 touchdowns, the Falcons led 24-0 at half and by game’s end had left no doubt as to who the better team was. But it’s a new season now and many seem to be expecting the Falcons to suffer the post-Super Bowl doldrums that have afflicted so many teams over the past 20 years. Combine this general feeling with the Green Bay defense’s excellent performance against Seattle last week, when they held the Seahawks to just 9 points, and all of the sudden this game looks a bit different than it did a few months ago.
But are we all burying the Falcons a bit too fast? After all, their defense played pretty well last week and should be improved this season, and the Green Bay offense sputtered throughout most of their win over Seattle. And now we think the Packers are going to march into the Georgia Dome (yes, I’m still calling it the Georgia Dome) and win a game because… why exactly? Because some so-called experts have a hunch that Atlanta will slip, despite no significant personnel losses? Because the Green Bay defense held up against an offense that isn’t in the same class as Atlanta’s? Point is, most people’s anti-Falcons reasoning is pretty flimsy, and from where I sit there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different outcome from what we saw eight months ago. The Falcons will get that offense revved up and should be able to take care of business at home.
