NFL WEEK 13: We’re through 12 weeks now and still sitting on zero cancelled games, a remarkable achievement given the times, but things are starting to get a bit wobbly, as last week’s Baltimore/Pittsburgh contest, originally scheduled for Thanksgiving Thursday, was delayed and delayed again until finally taking place on Wednesday, a full six days late. And given the state of the Ravens– quarterback Lamar Jackson and several other key contributors were held out of the game due to COVID protocols– the result, a 19-14 Steelers victory, felt a bit hollow.
Of course, Week 12’s biggest COVID-related farce went down in Denver, as all four eligible Broncos quarterbacks were ruled out less than 48 hours prior to gametime due to one of them testing positive, and the others apparently not wearing masks while in a meeting with him. As a result, and after being denied permission to press quality control coach Rob Calabrese into action as an emergency QB (would’ve been fascinating, but apparently the league ruled against it because they didn’t want to set a precedent and have teams start stashing extra players on the roster as “coaches”), the Broncos were forced to start a receiver from the practice squad, Kendall Hinton, at quarterback. The outcome was predictable: Hinton went 1/9 passing for 13 yards and a pair of interceptions, and Denver lost to New Orleans 31-3.
There was much grumbling about the game afterwards from the usual suspects in the media and on social media, but when it comes down to it, the NFL is going to have two options with games involving COVID-ravaged teams: force the games to be played anyway, which is what they’re going with so far, or enact forfeits. There just doesn’t seem to be any other answers, and that includes the much-proposed “Week 18”, as even if there was an extra week created to stage make-up games, who’s to say a team isn’t going to get hit by COVID that week? What then, a Week 19? And then a Week 20 if necessary? Where does it end? Well, as the league seems to have already figured out, it ends in one of two places: ugly “force” games like we saw in Denver last week, or the even uglier prospect of forfeits.
Fortunately this Week 13 doesn’t seem to be quite as beset by virus issues, and due to the scheduling shuffle we get a 3-day bonanza of football that includes a 12-game Sunday slate, two games on Monday, and a Tuesday-nighter. It’s a great time of year, with playoff races really coming into focus and meaningful games galore, and hopefully with these four selections we can continue to reap the rewards of what has been a profitable season thus far:
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (IND -3, 51)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -3 at 1.89
We’ve had a good feel for the Colts this season, backing them successfully several times before opposing them in last week’s 45-26 loss to Tennessee, a game in which they were without three key defensive starters. Two of the three, including All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner, will be back in action this week as Indianapolis travels to Houston, and I think we’ll see the excellent Indy defense return to form. Even after last week’s debacle the Colts still rank 5th in the NFL in total yards allowed, and now they get a Houston offense that will be without leading receiver Will Fuller after he tested positive for a banned substance. Deshaun Watson has leaned heavily on Fuller with DeAndre Hopkins shipped off to Arizona, and with the Texans releasing Kenny Stills last week, the receiving corps is perilously thin behind Brandin Cooks. Considering the team’s well-documented struggles running the ball– only Chicago has amassed fewer rushing yards, and only Miami has averaged fewer yards per rush– it’s difficult to envision the Texans having any sustained offensive success in this game, despite Watson’s brilliance. And the other side of the ball is a downright mismatch: the Colts are averaging 27.5 ppg and have scored 26 or more in 5 of their past 6 contests, while the porous Houston defense has allowed more yards per game than every AFC team but Jacksonville. Look for Indianapolis to take care of business here– lay the points with confidence.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -10, 51)
Recommendation: Minnesota -10 at 1.94
Some might say that a Vikings team that has posted only one double-digit victory in 11 games shouldn’t be a 10-point favorite over a Jacksonville team that has been close in most of its recent losses, with 3 of the last 4 defeats coming by 4 points or fewer. Well, in this case, “some” would be wrong. Watch the NFL long enough and you’ll learn how to sniff out an impending disaster, and trust me when I say that this game has B.L.O.W.O.U.T. written all over it. After the firing of GM Dave Caldwell this week, the Jags are officially a lame duck team just playing out the string, as very few people in the building– players or coaches– will be with the organization next season. The keys to the offense have been handed to Mike Glennon, a journeyman who is surrounded by a subpar supporting cast, and the Jags defense might be the single worst stop unit in the league, ranking 31st in yards allowed, 30th in points allowed (29.5 ppg), and dead last in sacks, with only 11 on the season. You think Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook are licking their chops for this matchup?? The Vikes have turned things around after a rough start to the year, winning 4 of their past 5 games thanks to some explosive offensive performances. They are going to absolutely pour it on in this one, mark my words. They’ll cover the 10 by halftime.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets (LV -7.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: New York +7.5 at 1.98
It’s tough to back an 0-11 team with much confidence, even as a home underdog of greater than a touchdown. That being said, the Jets are in a great spot this week to… dare I say it? *whispers* maybe even pick up a win. They’ve quietly started to resemble an actual NFL football team over the past few weeks, losing a 30-27 heartbreaker to New England in Week 9 and then, after a bye, hanging with the up-and-coming Chargers before losing 34-28. The offense, and particularly the receiving corps, is as healthy as its been all season, and Sam Darnold can make some things happen downfield. Now in fairness, that’s about the only good thing you can say about Darnold’s game these days, as his turnover issues have cost the team dearly and seem to have affected his confidence. But this week he has a real chance of success against a Raiders defense that can’t rush the passer (31st out of 32 teams in sacks) or cover anybody (27th in pass yards allowed), and will be without its best player in the secondary in safety Jonathan Abram. The Las Vegas offense is also banged up, with star RB Josh Jacobs ruled out with an ankle injury, and of course the Raiders are coming off a 43-6 beatdown at the hands of Atlanta. Conventional wisdom seems to be that they’ll be extra motivated after that performance and will take out some frustration on the Jets, but given their injury situation (in addition to Abram and Jacobs, starting DE Clelin Ferrell is also out), defensive issues, and the recent improvement from New York, I’m not sure that’s the right way to read this game. I like the Jets here.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (NO -2.5, 46)
Recommendation: Atlanta +2.5 at 2.04
The Saints have been rolling, winning 8 straight games to rocket to the top of the NFC standings, and not even the injury to Drew Brees has slowed them down, as they’ve won both games with Taysom Hill under center. One of those wins came against these Falcons just two short weeks ago, with Hill throwing for 233 yards and rushing for 49 more in a 24-9 victory. That was an intriguing game as an observer because no one in NFL circles really knew what an offense with Hill as the starting QB would look like– he’s mostly played tight end in his NFL career, and when he’s taken snaps at QB he’s always been a runner. But we saw it against Atlanta, and we saw it again last week against a Broncos team that had an even less-accomplished passer at QB… and I don’t know about you, but I haven’t exactly been wowed by this new-look Saints offense. The precision and explosiveness in the passing game is gone, and though the imposing ground game remains, you have to wonder how long it will take NFL defenses to figure this scheme out and suffocate it. I’m guessing the Falcons will have a much better plan in place after playing the part of guinea pig two weeks ago, so it should be tough sledding for the New Orleans offense, and though the Saints defense has been playing great this season, they’ll have their hands full with an Atlanta offense that is coming off a 43-point outing and will be getting All-Pro wideout Julio Jones back from a hamstring injury. I feel an upset coming on…
