NFL WEEK 14: This Week 14 began with the death of Jason Garrett and the possible rebirth of Mitch Trubisky, as Chicago handed Dallas yet another loss on Thursday night, dropping the Cowboys to 6-7 after a 3-0 start. Short of a trip to the NFC Championship game or beyond, a feat that seems more and more improbable with each passing week, it’s difficult to imagine Garrett surviving this mess. As for Trubisky, his believers were cautiously crawling out of their holes after watching him play like a functional NFL quarterback for four quarters, and though one game certainly doesn’t erase all the wretchedness of games past, if Trubisky can somehow guide the 7-6 Bears to a Wild Card berth, he might just back his way into a new contract.
In last week’s headline matchup, the AFC-leading Ravens pulled out a slim 3-point win over the NFC-leading 49ers, and the 10-2 Niners are back in the spotlight again this week as they head to the Big Easy to face Drew Brees and the 10-2 Saints. It’s being billed as a classic Great Offense vs. Great Defense matchup, but that’s oversimplifying things, in part because New Orleans has been little worse on offense and a little better on defense than many realize, and also because Jimmy Garoppolo’s ceiling is still somewhat unknown at this point– will he become a Brees-level maestro in leading Kyle Shanahan’s attack, which seems entirely possible some days? If so, it would obviously change the complexion of San Francisco’s team, and games like this week– on the road, facing a Hall of Fame QB who is leading an elite offense– are where we’ll find our answers.
Here are a few thoughts on that one and three others:
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (NO -2.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans -2.5 at 1.99
Not only is the the marquee game of the day, it’s the marquee game of the season thus far, and according to ESPN, this is the first time since 2005 that two teams with 2 losses or fewer have met this late in the regular season, so it’s a unique circumstance indeed. The Niners are coming off a tough 20-17 loss to Baltimore, and that game laid bare the questions that many have about the team, particularly on offense. Specifically, are they explosive enough? Jimmy Garoppolo threw for just 165 yards against the Ravens, the fifth time this season he has accounted for fewer than 200 yards through the air. To further illustrate the point, Garoppolo has topped 300 yards passing just twice all year, and both of those instances came against the porous Arizona defense.
Now, that doesn’t mean Garoppolo hasn’t played well, but it illustrates the limited nature of the San Francisco passing attack: their best receiver is rookie Deebo Samuel, who has recorded a mere 42 receptions, and tight end George Kittle is really the only player that defenses have to game-plan for. Where the 49ers offense has excelled is on the ground: they rank 2nd in the league in rushing, and they have three players– Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Tevin Coleman– who can carry the load. Thing is, the New Orleans defense is excellent against the run, ranking 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, and if your remove QB runs and focus just on what the Saints have done against running backs, they appear even more dominant, surrendering just 3.5 yards per carry and 62.3 yards per game. And though the Niners have a great defense themselves, they’ve been vulnerable against the run, ranking 22nd in rushing yards allowed while surrendering a whopping 4.7 yards per carry, so I expect Alvin Kamara to have some room to operate in this game. With Drew Brees still playing at such a high level– 70% completions in 4 of his past 5 starts with a 10/2 TD-to-INT ratio in that span– this just feels like a really tough spot for San Francisco. I expect the Saints to take care of business in the Dome.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3, 46.5)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay -3 at 1.91
The Colts have hung tough this season, and I’m convinced that they have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. But the injuries on offense have proven difficult to overcome, and again this week they’ll be without star receiver T.Y. Hilton, who is a game-changer when he’s on the field. They will be getting bellcow tailback Marlon Mack back from a hand injury and will surely look to continue their success on the ground, where they’ve averaged 139 yards per game (second in the AFC behind Baltimore) and 4.5 yards per carry, but the Bucs have completely shut down opposing rushing attacks all season, allowing just 76.3 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry, ranking second in the league in both categories.
How, then, are the Colts going to move the ball in this one? The obvious answer is “through the air”, as that’s how teams have hurt the Tampa defense, but only six teams leaguewide average fewer pass yards per game than Indianapolis, and without Hilton there simply aren’t any game-breaking options for Jacoby Brissett to work with. The Tampa passing attack, on the other hand, is long on explosiveness, as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are perhaps the NFL’s most dangerous 1-2 punch at receiver, and Jameis Winston certainly isn’t shy about chucking it downfield. If Winston can limit the turnovers– always an issue for him– he should be able to make some things happen against Colts defense that ranks in the bottom-half of the league against the pass and has only recorded 8 interceptions all season. The Bucs have quietly gained some momentum over the past few weeks, winning 3 of their last 4 games and putting up 28 points or more in each victory, so I’m not sure this is simply a “good team vs. bad team” matchup, which is how some seem to be viewing it. I’ll take my chances with Tampa Bay.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (BAL -6, 44)
Recommendation: Buffalo +6 at 2.0
The Ravens are the talk of the league, and rightfully so: what Greg Roman is doing with Lamar Jackson and the offense is the most innovative thing happening in football right now. It’s a mishmash of single wing/spread option concepts with NFL route trees and a quarterback whose foot-speed and passing accuracy make it all work. Defenses around the league have been flummoxed by this Ravens attack, and the stats are almost laughable: 207.8 rushing yards per game (!) and 5.6 yards per carry (!!) to go along with 33.8 points per game– first in the league by a wide margin. At times, this Baltimore offense has made opposing defenses look positively helpless.
But this is the NFL, where coaches pore over hours of game film each week and generally devise ways to “catch up” to the latest innovations on offense. As a matter of fact, many believe that what Baltimore is doing right now wouldn’t be possible without the passing explosion that the league has experienced over the past few years, which has led personnel executives to prioritize athletic, rangy linebackers over the traditional in-the-box run-stoppers, making many defenses entirely unprepared to deal with some of the power looks that Baltimore gives you in the running game. One of the finest defensive tacticians in the sport is Buffalo coach Sean McDermott, and after the Bills played last Thursday he’s had the “mini bye” to figure out how to slow down this Ravens freight train. And he got somewhat of a blueprint last week, as the excellent San Francisco defense limited Baltimore to just 283 total yards and made Lamar Jackson look uncomfortable and overmatched as a passer for perhaps the first time this season. The Bills defense has been elite, ranking third in the league in both yards allowed (300.1 ypg) and points allowed (15.7 ppg), and with near-freezing temperatures expected in Buffalo on Sunday, this feels like a really tough spot for Jackson. I expect this to be a tight, low-scoring game, and in what sets up as a letdown spot for Baltimore after so many high-profile showdowns, I think the outright upset is a distinct possibility.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (LA -3, 43)
Recommendation: Los Angeles -3 at 1.89
In games like this, when both teams have effectively been eliminated from the playoffs and are basically just playing out the string, things like motivation and mindset have to be taken into consideration, and though those things are difficult (impossible?) to predict over two 53-man rosters, we can certainly make some determinations based on the available evidence. In Jacksonville, the sky is falling. Big-money offseason acquisition Nick Foles has now been banished to the bench in favor of rookie Gardner Minshew at quarterback, and the entire hierarchy of the organization– from team president Tom Coughlin, to general manager Dave Caldwell, to head coach Doug Marrone– may be swept aside and replaced in a few weeks. The on-field product has reflected this dysfunction: the Jags have lost four straight games by a combined total of 82 points. It has officially gotten ugly.
The Chargers are riding their own three-game losing streak, but the on-field product has remained competitive, as all eight of the team’s losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer. While saying a coach has “lost the team” can sound a bit cliched, it’s clear from both on-field performance and off-field comments that the Chargers are still very much behind coach Anthony Lynn, while Doug Marrone feels like a dead man walking whose players are leading him to the execution chamber. The lack of effort has been appalling at times on defense, as has been noted by anyone who has seen the team play over the past few weeks. The Jags have surrendered 774 rushing yards over the past four games, with nobody seeming particularly eager to stick their nose in and make a tackle, and things won’t get any easier on Sunday, as L.A. boasts one of the most effective RB tandems in the league in Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Putting all the “motivation” stuff aside, this just seems like an extraordinarily difficult matchup for the Jags considering their shortcomings in the defensive front seven. “Minshew Mania” may be back, but I believe the losses are here to stay– the Chargers are the better team and should be able to take care of business on the road.
