NFL WEEK 17: We’ve reached the end of the road in a regular season that was memorable for some unfortunate reasons, and let’s hope that by this time next year we’ll have stadiums full of fans and gameday rosters unblemished by testing protocols and contact tracing. But for now, for one final, sad Sunday, we’ll have 16 games being played before mostly empty seats, and players in important games left unable to participate for COVID-related reasons. Add that to the usual Week 17 problems, like playoff teams with seeding locked up resting players and fielding a squad of backups, and you have a Sunday slate that somehow manages to be both unpredictable and dull.
There are a few rays of light, of course– the playoffs hang in the balance for division rivals Arizona and Los Angeles, and the Rams will be trotting out a quarterback last seen playing for the Arizona Hotshots of the now-defunct Alliance of American Football. The NFC East, despite being the league’s worst division this season, has nevertheless been its most competitive, as the four teams will square off this week with three of them still having a shot at the title. If Washington can take care of business against Philadelphia on Sunday night the division will be theirs, but if not, it will come down to the winner of the Giants/Cowboys game, which will take place earlier in the day in New York.
In the AFC, there are five teams– the Colts, Titans, Dolphins, Browns, and Ravens– currently sitting at 10-5, and just four seats left at the postseason table. The only one of those teams who doesn’t control their own destiny– the only one not in a “win and you’re in” scenario, in other words– is Indianapolis. The Colts need a win against Jacksonville and a loss by at least one of the other four teams, which seems likely until you realize that everyone but Miami is favored by more than a touchdown. There will be a lot of scoreboard-watching in Indianapolis, for sure.
Speaking of scoreboard watching, we seem to be fading a bit down the homestretch of what has been a very profitable season, winning only 3 of our last 8 bets. Let’s see if we can regain some momentum by wading through the Week 17 minefield:
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (BAL -13, 44)
Recommendation: Baltimore -13 at 1.91
In a week like this, when there is so much uncertainty surrounding who is going to play, who is resting players, what motivation levels are like for individual players, etc., we understandably seek certainty and reliability. That is what we have in this game– a team with championship aspirations, Baltimore, in a clear must-win situation, facing an inferior opponent. Yes, I realize Cincinnati is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time all season, but let’s not kid ourselves: the Bengals are a team led by backups at key positions, with a defense that has been leaky even in victory, and a locker room full of players who will be thinking of next week’s vacations in Vegas or the Caribbean just as soon as Sunday’s game starts to go south. The Cincinnati defense had no answers for the Baltimore rushing attack when these teams met back in Week 5, surrendering 161 yards on just 24 carries in a 27-3 Ravens victory. Considering the way the Baltimore offense has been playing lately, averaging 37 ppg in the team’s current 4-game winning streak, I think the only way they stop at 27 points is if the game is wrapped up early, as was the case the first time around. A more likely scenario is 35-40 points, around 200 rushing yards, and a 20+ point Ravens victory.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (NE -3, 40)
Recommendation: New York +3 at 1.91
“It’s been a tough season for the mighty Patriots, but surely, at home in the season finale, they’ll be able to take care of business against the lowly Jets… right? Right??” I think that pretty much sums up the mindset of most New England bettors in this game, and to be honest it was the first thing that ran through my head upon seeing the line. But one doesn’t have to dig very deep, or watch too many of the Patriots’ recent games, to realize that the emperor indeed has no clothes, and there isn’t any Belichick magic or “Patriot Way” that’s going to get them out of this mess– not this year, anyway. The offense is totally broken, ranking 27th in points scored, 28th in total yards, and 30th in passing. Cam Newton is a shell of his former self, and I don’t like his chances against a rejuvenated Jets defense that has played its best football since coordinator Gregg Williams was fired, holding the last two opponents– the playoff-bound Rams and Browns– to 20 points or fewer. Those games both turned into Jets wins, of course, so all the “tanking” concerns have been thrown out the window, and what’s left is a young team, once a laughingstock but now building confidence, facing a longtime nemesis that is fading and vulnerable. Remember– these Jets almost got the job done the first time these teams met, losing on a 51-yard field goal as time expired. They won’t let the Pats escape this time… the wrong team is favored here.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -7, 50.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta +7 at 1.91
This is a game where I have decided to roll the dice a bit in relation to who will be playing, and for how long. Bruce Arians has said this week that Tom Brady and the rest of the Bucs starters will play, but Arians has shown a willingness to rest players in similar scenarios before, and with Tampa locked in to the 5-seed, there just doesn’t seem to be much to gain from playing Brady and some other top-line starters deep into the second half. So I don’t think they’ll be playing– as a matter of fact, I’ll be surprised if Brady takes a single snap in the second half. The Falcons, meanwhile, have been highly competitive over the last month, losing four straight games by 5 points or fewer. They held a 17-0 halftime lead on these Bucs just two weeks ago before losing 31-27, and that was when Tampa had every reason and motivation to put its best foot, and best players, forward. Last week the Atlanta defense limited the mighty Kansas City offense to just 17 points in a 17-14 Chiefs win, and the Falcons still have one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks, with Matt Ryan ranked 4th in the league in pass yards. This just feels like too many points, given the situation. Gimme the Falcons.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (SEA -6.5, 46)
Recommendation: Seattle -6.5 at 1.91
Despite being eliminated from playoff contention, the 49ers showed last week that they have no plans to go quietly, as they upset division rival Arizona in a game the Cardinals had to have. They get a similar chance this week against the hated Seahawks– though Seattle has locked up the NFC West, the 1-seed and the accompanying first-round bye are still within reach with a victory here, so we can expect Pete Carroll’s team to play at full strength. They proved to be too much for the Niners back in Week 10, winning 37-27 behind four Russell Wilson touchdown passes, and considering the current state of the San Francisco offense– third-string quarterback, backup running back, two starting receivers out– I’m having trouble envisioning a scenario where the 49ers keep this one much closer. It’s worth pointing out that perhaps no unit in the NFL has improved as much throughout the course of the season as has the Seattle defense, which was routinely torched over the first half of the year but has led the league with only 13.7 points per game allowed since Week 11. They have a definite plus matchup against this decimated Niners offense, and Russell Wilson has to be licking his chops at the thought of a San Francisco secondary that will be without starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams. I know these divisional games often end up being closer than expected, but I don’t think we’ll see that here– Seattle is just too much for the Niners right now. Lay the points.
