NFL WEEK 17: While only two weeks remain in the regular season, there is still much to be determined when it comes to the NFL’s playoff race. Seven postseason spots and six division titles are still up for grabs, and the top seed (and accompanying first-round bye) hasn’t been clinched in either conference.
The biggest game of the week is probably the Dolphins/Ravens showdown in Baltimore, as the race for the AFC’s top seed has come down to those two teams and Baltimore can clinch with a win. Should the Ravens lose, however, Miami will be in the driver’s seat for the 1-seed and Cleveland will still have a chance to win the AFC North. In the NFC, three teams– San Fracisco, Detroit, and Philadelphia– are tied atop the conference with 11 wins, but the 49ers own the tiebreaker and can therefore clinch a first-round bye with wins over Washington this week and division rival Los Angeles next week. Speaking of the Rams, they are one of seven teams fighting over the NFC’s final three playoff spots, and with a trip to San Francisco on tap for next week, Sunday’s game against the struggling Giants is absolutely a must-win.
With a terrific Cowboys/Lions matchup on Saturday night and 14 games scheduled for this glorious Sunday, the NFL is sending 2023 out in style. Let’s see if we can close out the year with some winners:
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -3, 46.5)
Recommendation: Miami +3 at 2.02; Miami moneyline (to win) at 2.59
The marquee game of the week is a potential playoff preview, with these teams emerging as the class of the AFC as squads like Kansas City and Jacksonville have faded. It could be a nice “sell high” time for the Ravens after they pulled off a big-time road win over Super Bowl favorite San Francisco last week, though we should probably put a “sell with caution” sign on any team that has won 9 of 10. This is a matchup of the NFL’s highest scoring offense (Miami) vs. the defense that allows the fewest points on the league (Baltimore), but the hidden storyline here is that the Ravens may not even have the better of these two defenses. Since Week 8 Miami has been dominant defensively, leading the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per play, which is perhaps the most relevant of the “advanced stats”. The Dolphins will also have a healthy Tyreek Hill after he was forced to miss Week 15 with an ankle injury that also slowed him last week, and with both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane now back to full participation, the run/pass balance that has made the Miami offense the most dangerous unit in the league has returned in full. I feel a minor upset brewing here… let’s take those 3 points but also have a nibble on the moneyline.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -3.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -3.5 at 1.99
Under interim coach Antonio Pierce the Raiders have shockingly turned things around, winning back-to-back games against favored teams to find a foothold in the AFC’s playoff race. Should they win this week, their playoff chances increase to 34% (h/t ESPN stats & info). It’s also a huge game for an Indianapolis team that’s in a three-way tie atop the AFC South and can’t afford a loss. Fortunately for the Colts, they have both of their top running backs healthy and ready to roll for the first time in over a month, and they’ll also see the return of starting right tackle Braden Smith, who will be critical in slowing down Vegas’s All-Pro DE Maxx Crosby. It’s really the Vegas defense that has been the key to the team’s turnaround– they’ve been tough against the run under Pierce and have scored multiple defensive TDs in each of the last two games. A healthy Colts backfield will present the Raiders defensive front seven with perhaps their stiffest test of the season, however, and no team in NFL history has ever scored multiple defensive TDs in three consecutive games, so we shouldn’t count on that happening again. It’s difficult to trust a Raiders offense that ranks 28th in the league in yards per game and is led by a rookie QB in Aidan O’Connell, and going on the road face an Indianapolis team that badly need the win feels like a tough hill to climb. Gimme the Colts.
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -4, 37)
Recommendation: Jacksonville -4 at 1.97
The Jags are in freefall, losers of four straight games and missing their leader to boot. Trevor Lawrence, it was confirmed on Friday, will miss the first game of his career due to a sprained right (throwing) shoulder, leaving the Jacksonville passing attack in the hands of journeyman C.J. Beathard. Fortunately for Beathard, he’ll be facing a Carolina defense that has allowed more points than all but two teams leaguewide and has recorded only 21 sacks, the fewest in the NFL. The Panthers are just as bad on the other side of the ball, ranking 30th in the league in both points scored and points allowed, and rookie Bryce Young has been sacked an astounding 53 times, which would be the most in the NFL were it not for the laughable Sam Howell situation in Washington. This is the definition of a “get well” matchup for a Jaguars defense that has been struggling lately, and the Jags do have a dynamic pass-rusher in Josh Allen who will likely be in Young’s lap most of the afternoon. The line here dropped from 6.5 to 4 after the news broke that Lawrence wasn’t playing, but I’m not sure the loss of their starting QB will be as crippling to this Jacksonville offense as most assume. For one, Lawrence hasn’t been playing well for the past few weeks… he’s been part of the problem. I’m certainly not suggesting that Beathard will be an upgrade, but he’s one of the most experienced backups in the league, having appeared in 31 games across his 6-year career, including several starts. He’s good enough to exploit a poor Carolina defense that will be primarily focused on shutting down Travis Etienne, and a little bit of a 1-week reset might be a blessing in disguise for the Jaguars offense. Something tells me that, after a difficult month, the dam finally breaks here and the Jags roll to a feel-good win in front of the home fans. Blowout incoming.
