NFL WEEK 2: After a typical Week 1 full of upsets, ugly performances, and questionable officiating (did you see some of those roughing the passer calls??), we now move forward to Week 2 with a bit more clarity. No longer do we have to wonder about the new-look Seattle defense, or Jon Gruden’s Raiders, or what the Jets will look like with rookie Sam Darnold under center– we’ve now seen them all in action and have something to evaluate. And while one game certainly doesn’t make a career, watching Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes shred a talented Chargers defense in his second career start was enough to convince many observers, myself included, that the Chiefs were right to move on from Alex Smith in the offseason.
Week 1 was rough on new head coaches, as all seven wound up losing– three in blowout fashion, and two more after blowing big leads. It was also rough on the ol’ bottom line, as a 1-2-1 record on our four picks doesn’t quite cut the mustard and leaves us in a small hole to start the season. No worries, though– I have a feeling we’ll be singing a happier tune come Sunday evening. Here’s what I’m thinking:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (LAC -7.5, 43)
Recommendation: Under 43 at 1.95
Well, one thing’s for sure: things can’t get any worse for the Bills, who were thoroughly embarrassed by Baltimore last week in a game that was 40-0 in the 3rd quarter before the Ravens pulled most of their starters. After enduring all the Nathan Peterman they could take (so… approximately 1.5 quarters worth of action), the Bills will now turn to rookie Josh Allen at quarterback, who wasn’t much better than Peterman last week but mercifully avoided the crippling turnovers.
What does that mean? It means that we can plan on a super-conservative game plan out of Buffalo this week, one predicated on feeding tailback LeSean McCoy, keeping Allen out of Melvin Ingram’s crosshairs, and keeping Philip Rivers and the explosive LA offense on the sidelines as much as possible. They are going to run the ball, keep the clock running, and pray to the football gods that the defense isn’t as bad as what it showed last week– which it surely isn’t. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is a defensive guru and it’s not like the cupboard is bare on that Bills D, so I expect them to respond with some professional pride and play much better this week. Everything about this game screams “under”.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Phi -3, 44)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay +3 at 2.06
This one feels a little fishy, doesn’t it? I mean, at first glance most casual observers would likely jump all over the defending Super Bowl champs laying a mere 3 points against a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Tampa Bay team, and indeed the Eagles are firmly the “public” side this week, with some 75% of the action coming in on Philly at sportsbooks that report such things. But is it really that simple?
The Eagles offense was disjointed and inconsistent throughout the preseason and it seemed to carry over into Week 1, when, despite pulling out a win, they produced just 232 total yards and 18 points in a performance that can best be described as anemic. The Bucs, meanwhile, had no such issues, rolling up 48 points and 529 total yards in an upset win over New Orleans. Philly stars Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery are still out, the running game can’t be relied upon, and the secondary could have problems with a Bucs receiving corps that features both tremendous size (Mike Evans) and tremendous speed (DeSean Jackson). This just feels like a sneaky tough spot for the Eagles– gimme the home ‘dog.
Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (NO -9, 49.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans -9 at 1.86
New Orleans was stunned at home last week, losing to Tampa Bay despite heading into the game as a 9.5-point favorite. The offense hummed along as expected, generating 40 points and 475 total yards, but the defense was absolutely shredded by journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Saints trailed for nearly the entire game. It was the worst anyone has seen the New Orleans defense look since… Week 1 of last season, when they let Vikings QB Sam Bradford go 27/32 for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a 5-point Minnesota victory.
If you recall, the Saints D turned out to be pretty good in 2017, and with just about all of the key pieces back this year, I’d be very careful about overreacting to what we saw last week. And with the Browns coming to town, a team that hasn’t won a game since 2016 and struggles to move the ball through the air (Tyrod Taylor was a ghastly 15/40 passing in last week’s rain-soaked tie against Pittsburgh), the Saints have a golden opportunity to get things right. Drew Brees & Co. should slice right through a Cleveland defense that allowed over 25 points per game in 2017 and surrendered 472 total yards last week, and the Browns simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace in a shootout. Nine of the Saints’ 11 wins last season came by 9 points or more, so this is a team accustomed to covering big numbers. Back them with confidence here.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (NY -2.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: Miami moneyline at 2.24
Jets fans had to be overcome with giddiness after watching their team dismantle Detroit on Monday night, with rookie quarterback Sam Darnold bouncing back from a game-opening pick-six to complete 16 of 21 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns– not to mention five interceptions and a touchdown from the defense and another TD on special teams. It was a performance that had a lot of people buzzing and wondering whether it could be the start of big things for the 2018 Jets. As for me, I think it gives us an excellent “sell high” opportunity on a team that was 5-11 last season, didn’t drastically overhaul the roster, and is starting a rookie at quarterback.
Look, the Dolphins aren’t bad. The offense was balanced and effective in a win over Tennessee last week, reminding people what Adam Gase’s up-tempo attack can look like with a capable trigger-man like Ryan Tannehill under center. DeVante Parker, who most consider Miami’s best receiver, will be back after missing last week with a broken finger, and the Jets had problems covering Parker the only time they faced him last year, surrendering 8 receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown. And it’s not like the Dolphins don’t play any defense– they held Tennessee to 336 total yards last week and forced three turnovers, and they have a pair of terrific edge rushers in Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake. I like Miami to win this one outright.
