NFL WEEK 8: As we approach the midpoint of this NFL season, I think most would agree that, all things considered, it’s been a resounding success thus far, giving us a bit of normalcy and excitement in these otherwise depressing times. It will be nice to see the stadiums packed with 80,000 fans again, but we’ll take what we can get, and we’ve actually gotten more than usual in certain ways, what with the Monday doubleheaders, Tuesday night football, etc. While this Week 8 doesn’t include any of those extras, it does feature some great rivalry games, like Pittsburgh’s visit to Baltimore, the Bills/Patriots showdown that may represent a passing of the torch in the AFC East, and the first of two San Francisco/Seattle games that will go a long way towards shaping the ultra-competitive NFC West.
Our own fortunes have been on the upswing lately, with 6 of 8 winners over the last two weeks and only 1 losing week of 7 thus far. Let’s see if we can keep the money train rolling, shall we?
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (CLE -2.5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Oakland +2.5 at 1.96
Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield had his best game of the season last week, throwing for 5 touchdowns in a come-from-behind win over Cincinnati, and that was despite losing star wideout Odell Beckham to a knee injury on the game’s first series. But I’d be careful about reading too much into that game, both in terms of Mayfield’s ability and the overall direction of the Cleveland offense, and in how Beckham’s injury will affect that offense going forward. Make no mistake: Beckham, who led the team in targets, was a major focus of every defense Cleveland faced. Without him, the offense has limited ability to stretch the field, and things will become more difficult for the Kareem Hunt-led running game, Jarvis Landry’s short-to-intermediate game, and of course, Mayfield himself, who has already had 4 outings this season in which he’s passed for fewer than 200 yards. The Raiders have faced some of the NFL’s best offenses– Kansas City, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, etc– so their defensive numbers are a little skewed, and the offense seems to have found its footing behind Derek Carr, who has thrown for 942 combined yards in the team’s last 3 games. He should be able to light up a Browns secondary that has allowed more passing yards than any team in the AFC, and I like Vegas’s chances of pulling off the minor upset here.
Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions (IND -3, 49.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -3 at 1.98
The Lions are riding high after back-to-back victories to improve to 3-3 on the year, but it’s important to remember that those wins came against Atlanta and Jacksonville, two teams who entered this Week 8 with a combined record of 2-12. Things will get considerably more difficult this week when a 4-2 Colts team that features one the NFL’s best defenses comes to town– the Colts are coming off a bye, so they’re rested and as healthy as they’ll be for the rest of the season, and the defense, which ranks second in the league in both yards allowed and points allowed, will be getting back star linebacker Darius Leonard, the captain and leader of the unit, after he was forced to miss two games with a groin injury. The Indy offense should find some success against a Detroit defense that has been largely unable to pressure the quarterback this season and had therefore been vulnerable in the secondary, giving up at least 240 passing yards in every game despite facing a friendly schedule. That means Philip Rivers should have a much easier go of it on Sunday than his counterpart Matt Stafford, and I expect Rivers to lead his Colts to yet another victory.
Los Angeles Rams @ Miami Dolphins (LAR -3.5, 45.5)
Recommendation: Los Angeles -3.5 at 1.99
It’s difficult to find a parallel to what’s happening in Miami– the Dolphins have won 3 of their last 4 games, with those wins coming by 69 combined points. They are coming off a bye. We’re at a high-water mark in recent Dolphins history, considering the franchise has only made the playoffs once in the past dozen years. And what do they do during their bye week? They bench starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is playing some of the best football of his career and was a top-10 QB by almost any metric this season, in favor of rookie Tua Tagovailoa, who will be making his first career start on Sunday. It’s a sensible move, I suppose, if Tua’s development is the ultimate goal. It’s an utterly nonsensical and counterproductive move if the goal is winning right now, this week… and it reeks of front-office interference. This isn’t the easiest spot for Tua, facing an LA defense that features the league’s best interior lineman and possibly its best cornerback as well. The Rams have won 3 of 4 themselves, and have held the opposition to 10 points or fewer in all 3 wins. And on the other side of the ball, Sean McVay will surely find ways to dissect a Miami defense that is soft up front, surrendering a whopping 5.0 yards per rush this season. The Dolphins are an interesting situational play I suppose– coming off a bye, facing a team traveling cross-country, etc– but I have doubts about their ability to overcome the self-sabotage. Gimme the Rams.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3, 53.5)
Recommendation: San Francisco +3 at 1.9
Russell Wilson might be the best quarterback in the NFL right now. There is no denying his greatness. There’s also no denying the fact that without Wilson the Seahawks would be totally rudderless, as his passing and the work of receivers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are just about the only positives coming out of Seattle at the moment… and the team is 5-1! Anyone who’s watched the Seahawks play this season knew that a game like last week’s, when Wilson’s brilliance couldn’t quite overcome the putrid defense, was bound to happen. As a matter of fact, it’s somewhat stunning it didn’t happen sooner, considering the Seattle defense is giving up an eye-popping 368.7 pass yards per game, worst in the league by a wide margin, and has surrendered more total yards than ANY DEFENSE IN NFL HISORY through six games. Now division rival San Francisco comes to town, and if you don’t think Kyle Shanahan is going to find ways to carve up that defense, you haven’t been paying attention. And remember, the Niners defense has done as well as anyone in the league at slowing down Wilson over the years, holding the ‘Hawks to 27 points or fewer in 6 of the last 7 meetings between the two teams. There are no secrets here, which is why I think San Francisco has a clear edge. The 3-point number makes this one a no-brainer.
