WILLIE (AND DAQMAN) LOSE OUT TO SHARK’S £600 BARGAIN AT 66-1: Daqman bet as if favourites would flop or be unbackable yesterday. So it was as Aspire Tower turned over Abacadabras at Down Royal, but none harder to bear than his only strong stake of the day when he napped Queens Brook, pipped a head by 66-1 mare Skyace. All credit to ‘Shark’ Hanlon who had bought the winner from Willie Mullins for £600. ‘Look behind you Willie Mullins, man what are you about!’
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3 AND ANALYSIS OF ALL THREE SATURDAY BIG RACES: Today Daqman tries to increase his lead of 51-32 over Pricewise, including from his 1-2-3 and analysis of the three big races today: the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal, the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and the Autumn Gold Cup at Ascot. Headlines:
🔹 DREAM OF A CHAMPION CHASER
🔹 NAME THE WINNER ON RATINGS
🔹 BLACK CORTON PLACED TO PAY
🔹 WILD CARD IS HOBBS ONLY PLAY
DREAM OF A CHAMPION CHASER
⭕ 2.25 Down Royal (Ladbrokes Champion Chase, 3m) STATS: 7-10 winners aged seven and eight. Noel Meade is going for a hat-trick and his fourth win in seven seasons with Tout Est Permis and Snow Falcon.
Unfortunately for Noel, it’s not a case of tout est permis (‘anything goes’), if recent winning ratings are any guide: 163, 165, 166. That’s pretty exact!
Tout Est Permis (152) and Snow Falcon (154) are short of the mark whereas, if anything, Delta Work (170) looks overqualified!
Gordon Elliott saddles 55% of the field! He has also won the race three times and, as well as Delta Work, will saddle Presenting Percy, The Storyteller, Alpha Des Obeaux and Ravenhill.
Presenting Percy (165) has the rating for it but, twice in his last three starts has failed to cope with Delta Work, and this is his first run for Elliott after a 232-day break since the Cheltenham Gold Cup, when he fell and Delta Work was fifth.
⭕ 1: Chris’s Dream (164) is looking to launch a Fortune Cookies double for us today, to be completed by Cyrname in the Charlie Hall. They were 4.0 and 3.65 respectively this morning on the BETDAQ Betting Exchange
‘Dream’ goes best when fresh so must strike today. Winner of the Ladbrokes Troytown at Navan last November, following up at Gowran in February but failing to cope with Cheltenham for the second year running in identical circumstances.
On both occasions, he was taking two wins to the festival but found the track and the company too hot for the hat-trick.
⭕ 2: Delta Work Back-to-back 3m strikes at Leopardstown made him only 5-1 to win the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Held up to get the 3m 2f trip; didn’t have the pace to challenge but finished clear of Chris’s Dream (weakened two out). Usually comes on for his first run (only fourth in this race last year) but Gigginstown are looking to him for their eighth win in a row in this race.
⭕ 3: The Storyteller Career high when he beat Tout Est Permis, with Balko Des Flos a remote fourth and Alpha Des Obeaux 40-lengths fifth at Punchestown 17 days back in a fast time.
NAME THE WINNER ON RATINGS
3.20 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) STATS: Nigel Twiston-Davies has won it six times, twice in the last three years with Bristol de Mai and Ballyoptic, who attempts the double this afternoon but is now older than any winner since Grey Abbey 16 years ago.
The double hasn’t been done back to back since One Man (1996-7) and See More Business (1999-2000) at the turn of the century.
The last three winning ratings of 157, 159, 164 discredit all bar Cyrname, Ballyoptic, Vinndication and Sam Spinner, with the winner two years ago Definitely Red ruled out as an 11-year-old (no winner since 1989), who was a remote fourth last year.
⭕ 1: Cyrname (officially rated 176) Three in a row, beating Altior at Ascot and runner-up in the 2019 King George, his only try at 3m. None of the four principals today have been seen for at least 235 days but all have won when fresh.
Sam Spinner scored twice at Wetherby at this time last year but his stable is badly out of form, with just one winner since jumping resumed in June, and currently 0-14.
⭕ 2: Vinndication, on the other hand, is from Kim Bailey’s in-form yard, currently with figures of 112. Could test Cyrname’s stamina for this 3m, but nearly a stone to find on the ratings.
Has won first time back in November for three years in succession, including last year’s Autumn Gold Cup, which is run at Ascot today.
⭕ 3: Ballyoptic (163) Last year’s winner can reach the frame again, if Sam Spinner needs the run. Sam is 3-3 over fences, despite some chancy jumping. Top-novice La Bague Au Roi could bounce back after his wind op.
BLACK CORTON PLACED TO PAY
3.40 Ascot (Autumn Gold Cup) STATS: In keeping with the general trends, young horses aged six to eight have won this in the last seven years, but this is a below-par renewal. Five of the last six winners have been from among the first four or five in the market.
⭕ 1 Black Corton Placed 20 out of 24 chases, a winner nine times, and third in this race last year to a strong opponent in Vinndication (a top contender for the Charlie Hall Chase today). Has had a wind op during the break.
I took 7.6 win this morning, 2.8 a place, on the BETDAQ betting exchange.
⭕ 2 Commanche Red A seven-year-old improver, the second and third in his Kempton win last Boxing Day followed up by both scoring twice.
⭕ 3 Valtor has Ascot form figures of 112, including winning the Silver Cup here at Christmas, 2018. At 11, best of the older horses (Blaklion is 11 and Regal Encore 12).
Mister Malarkey was beaten a long way on his reappearance in this race last year but won first time after a break at Kempton in February from Black Corton, Whatmore (4th) and Adrien Du Pont (5th). His stable is currently 1-32 and rain would ruin his chance.
Whatmore could be called consistent because he’s been in the first four seven times in a row, twice in Graded company. You could just as well call him a consistent loser, as he failed to win any of them.
WILD CARD IS HOBBS ONLY PLAY
⭕ 1.20 Ascot Philip Hobbs has struck form this week, with figures of 221130411. Smarty Wild is making his chasing debut but is Hobbs sole starter today in a chase or hurdle. Described by the trainer as ‘a big three-mile chaser in the making.’ BETDAQ 8.1.
⭕ 1.35 Wetherby Nigel Twiston-Davies is struggling for winners but Guy kept the stable flag flying on his chasing debut at Huntingdon. He’s half the age of his principal rival, Minella For Me, and can improve again. Bollin Ace comes into it if there’s plenty of rain, but 22322 bridesmaid form figures are still off-putting. BETDAQ 4.3 Guy.
⭕ 1.55 Ascot The more rain the better for Ibleo, as Venetia Williams finds her form (three wins in the last nine days) but he’s never won a chase outside novice company. Capeland romped home 12 lengths here in a class 2 last November after missing out on this one when forced out at the final fence.
I’m betting that Bryony Frost wins with either or both (greedy!) of Black Corton and Capeland (BETDAQ 4.0)
⭕ 2.45 Wetherby A cracking Grade 2 for the West Yorkshire Hurdle, featuring Stayers Hurdle winner, Lisnagar Oscar; the Ultima second Kildisart; Next Destination (one-time Ballymore third); Mares Hurdle fourth Roksana; Wholestone, who switches back from chasing; Copperhead, who was one of our Fortune Cookies last season; and and Decor Irlandais, comfortable Killarney handicap winner the last day. With most of those long absent, Decor looked big at BETDAQ 9.0.
⭕ 3.5 Ascot It’s a difficult betting time, with the Flat fading and the Jumps just getting off the ground. Keep stakes low until you’re confident and just Hang In There (BETDAQ 8.5).
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Ascot (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win SMARTY WILD
1.35 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 3pts win GUY
1.55 Ascot (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win CAPELAND
2.25 Down Royal
FORTUNE COOKIE (early bird)
BET 10pts win CHRIS’S DREAM
2.45 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win DECOR IRLANDAIS
3.5 Ascot (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win HANG IN THERE
3.20 Wetherby
FORTUNE COOKIE (early bird)
BET 10pts win (nap) CYRNAME
3.40 Ascot (win 20, place 10)
BET 3pts win 5pts place BLACK CORTON
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