AT&T BYRON NELSON: The PGA Tour heads to Dallas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson, a tournament that has has been won by a veritable who’s-who of golfing greats in its 73-year existence and still attracts a quality field. Dustin Johnson is here this week, as is Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and defending champion Sergio Garcia, among others.
TPC Four Seasons, formerly known as Las Colinas, will serve as the host venue for the 35th and final time, as this event moves across town to the newly-constructed Trinity Forest beginning next year. Most of the players in the field will be very familiar with the course, and though it’s always received mixed reviews, it’s produced some exciting finishes over the years, including last year, when Sergio erased a 3-shot deficit over the final four holes and went on to defeat Brooks Koepka in a playoff.
A par-70 that is quite short by Tour standards, measuring just 7,166 yards, TPC Four Seasons has been rather tame in recent years, with each of the last three champions reaching 14-under or better, but it is extremely penal in spots and can be quite difficult if the wind picks up– in 2011, for instance, the winning score was 3-under par. The fairways are tight and water comes into play on half the holes, but the Bermuda greens are fairly generous, so this is not the type of course that requires precision iron play. Hit it straight off the tee, take advantage of the two par-5s, and roll in some putts: that’s the formula for success here.
The usual suspects sit atop BETDAQ’s Win Market, but we’ve seen some odd results in this tournament in recent years, like Steven Bowditch’s stunning win in 2015 and the less-stunning but still surprising triumphs of Brendan Todd in 2014 and Sang-moon Bae in 2013, so this might be a good week to get a little creative. That being said, it’s difficult to turn away from guys who have success here every year, and if you remove the aforementioned 3-year stretch then you’re left with five major champions among six winners since 2008.
I’ve confused myself with that last little bit, so without further ado we’ll just go ahead and get to the selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tony Finau (38.0)- Coming off a missed cut at The Players and sporting a shorter-than-usual price, I’m sure a lot of people will steer clear of Finau this week, but that may turn out to be a major mistake. He absolutely loves it here, shooting 68 or better in all eight of his career rounds at TPC Four Seasons and finishing 10th in 2015 and 12th last year. And I’m not going to panic about his 73-74 at TPC Sawgrass last week; he didn’t play well there last year, either, and responded with two top-15s in his next three starts. Besides, he’s just three weeks removed from a 3rd-place showing at the Valero Texas Open, his third top-5 of the year. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Finau’s game that a trip to TPC Four Seasons won’t fix, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he picked up his second career PGA Tour victory this week.
Marc Leishman (60.0)- Leishman followed middling performances at the Masters and RBC Heritage with a missed cut last week, but he’s just four starts removed from his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he’s always been a feast-or-famine type of player. When he has it rolling, he usually heads straight for the top of the leaderboard, as he’s had it rolling a few times over the years at TPC Four Seasons, recording two top-3s and five top-12 finishes in eight career appearances at this event. An excellent driver of the golf ball who is also known as one of the best wind players on Tour, Leishman has played a lot of good golf in Texas, and this is one of his very favorite venues. He’s a nice value at a price like 60.0.
Graham DeLaet (94.0)- There may not be a more consistent, solid ball-striker on the PGA Tour than DeLaet, who currently ranks 5th on Tour in “Strokes Gained: Off the Tee” and 10th in Greens in Regulation. His putter can betray him at times, but he seems to putt his best on Bermuda greens, which is somewhat unusual for a Canadian. Lately he’s been all over the map, missing three cuts in his past eights starts but registering top-25s in the other five, including a 6th-place finish at the RBC Heritage just two starts ago. Critically, he has a nice record in this event, with two top-10s and three top-25s in his past four appearances. He did miss the cut last year, but narrowly, as he followed a disappointing first-round 74 with a 65 on Friday. All things considered, I think DeLaet is one of the better values on the board this week and should be backed enthusiastically at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jason Dufner (1.91) vs. Brandt Snedeker (1.91)
Snedeker hasn’t played in over a month, but he was in good form when we last saw him, with top-30 finishes in four consecutive starts. He’s missed two cuts in his last three appearances at this event, however, while Dufner has consistently flourished at TPC Four Seasons, going 6-for-6 in cuts made, winning this tournament in 2012, and racking up three additional top-10 finishes. Dufner has been sharp lately, too, with three top-15s in his last five starts. Recommendation: Dufner at 1.91
Jordan Spieth (1.8) vs. Sergio Garcia (2.0)
Sergio is a popular guy right now after his win at the Masters and a Saturday charge at last week’s Players Championship, but he played poorly on Sunday at the Players (and for most of Thursday), and I have a hunch that capturing the green jacket will be a “stop and smell the roses” moment for him as opposed to a “springboard to something bigger” moment. He has a decent record in this tournament, but I don’t like his chances against hometown boy Spieth, who has been teeing it up in this event since his amateur days and has never missed a cut. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.8
