SPLASH OUT WITH BIG YORK OFFERS ON BETDAQ: Horses that look a soft touch may be caught out by the rain at York today so Daqman, on the hunt for outsiders, has bets offered at 10.5, 11.0, 12.0, 13.0, 30.0 and 34.0, ‘over his cornflakes,’ as he likes to put it, this morning.
FOLLOW DAQMAN’S HUGE LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman goes into the three-day meeting on the Knavesmire with a commanding 22-6 advantage over Pricewise of the Racing Post for value returns, which have netted him a 48 points profit lead.
RAIN MAY SHUT DOWN THE SPEED
It’s the festival of speed! That’s the Racing Post front-page preview to York. They’ve kept that headline in the drawer for days, waiting for Shutter Speed’s Musidora, but will she even run.
Trainer John Gosden is worried about the continual rain. So will be connections of any horse with speed intended to run this afternoon.
But, heh, hang on there! If, as we are led to believe, Shutter Speed’s target is the French Oaks, then she’ll have to run today and she’ll have to win, even if the ground is very soft.
‘Very soft’ is the usual description of racing turf in France. That’s how they like it. And there’s an age-old battle, way before Brexit was even thought of, between the English who don’t seem to water so heavily if there’s a French invader to a firm-ground meeting, and the French who seem to water on water when there’s an English top-of-the-ground contender. Allez France!
SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE FORM
2.20 York Eight out of 10 winners of this were four-year-olds and, since we have been rewarded by following last year’s Classic generation this season, we have a double incentive for sticking with them.
They win two ways at York. The low-drawn capable of racing with the pace either produce another surge or stay on resolutely to take the prize.
Or a horse that travels well, with a rider who is a good judge, can switch right and take them on the outside. In each case a group develops on the inner, and the outer is towed by the pace switcher, so creating results by stall like the last two seasons 4-9-2 and 18-14-12.
Al Neksh (stall 3) won three times last year yet, on Frankie Dettori’s advice, the plan was ‘we don’t overdo him.’ He is, therefore, lightly raced, fresh, and underrated (so nicely handicapped).
My problem with the low numbers is that there doesn’t seem to be much pace on, unless Beardwood (from 11) ‘does a Johnston’ and moves across to front them.
In the high stalls, Lustrous Light (15), dropped from Group 3 (when with Ger Lyons), is a hold-up horse and potential switcher from out of the main pack.
He did exactly that to win his maiden at today’s trip a year or so ago but has since been highly tried racing over further, including in the King Edward V11 at Royal Ascot, the Ballyroan Stakes and the Vintage Crop.
He is the ‘hidden horse’ of the race. But what he is remains uncertain. Ger Lyons thought that 1m 4f was his minimum trip; that he was very green last year and might even be a Cup candidate this.
Ralph Beckett seems to disagree, bringing him back in trip. Or maybe he remembers the stayer Clever Cookie winning this in 2014, dropped markedly in trip, switched to score with a long run from stall 17. Cookie would later win twice at 1m 6f on this same track!
Awake My Soul has finished in the first four twice in this race; Not So Sleepy, Qassem, Repercussion and Saunter will all like it soft.
VERDICT: It’s tough from over my cornflakes when I can only guess that the ground is deepened by rain. I’ll split my pound between Al Neksh (11.0 on BETDAQ) and Lustrous Light (30.0), given that both were green and had an educational year last season, and could make their mark this, with a change of stables (Lustrous Light) often beneficial.
RIDE LIKE THE WIND, SPENNY..
2.55 York The shape of the race is often a V-surge down the centre but, with 20 runners, they might split into two or three groups, so that the result will depend on where the front-runners are and where the best ground is.
Though it has very little to do with it, jockeys and punters alike will plunge for a low-stall if one won the first, or high number if something had come with a wide-out surge from a high numbers.
In the low stalls, Muntadab (from stall 2) is a front or van runner; Flying Pursuit (3) and Reputation (6) are trackers, and Wentworth falls (7) a hold-up horse.
Middle-to-high draw: David O‘Meara is quite keen on Out Do (15), having ironed out ‘a few niggles’, but he’s eight now and old(er) sprinters rarely have the lungs to win on wide-open tracks like Ascot, Newmarket and York. There’s not much between Out Do and Muntadab on Ripon form late last month.
George Bowen (13) is interesting in first-time hood, 11lb lower than when beaten around five lengths from the adjacent stall 14 in this race last year.
Ride Like The Wind (12) has been dropped a grade from Listed class after a decent second run at Doncaster for Kevin Ryan after being switched from Freddie Head in France.
Stays further and will like it if the forecast showers get into the ground. The same applies to Giant Spark.
Udontdodou (16) needs to step up from class 4 on turf, and his wins have been wins only at 5f until recently on AW.
VERDICT: If there’s a lot of rain, this 6f will be hard to get. So I’m looking not for horses with speed but for those who have won over 7f and have scored on soft ground.
That short-list is Lincoln (17.5 on BETDAQ), Muntadeb (7.4), Ninjago (17.0) and Ride Like The Wind (12.0).
Muntadeb has crept up the handicap. Lincoln has never won in any year before September. Ninjago has won only on AW over the last four years.
So I’ll take Ride Like The Wind, dropped in grade, down in the handicap and with big-field ace Jamie Spencer up.
SOFT ROLE HANDS IT TO BRANDO
3.30 York The previous race will guide us to the effect of the draw, and by now we should know the ground conditions.
Magical Memory won last year by only half a length from Suedois, after taking the Abernant on softish ground.
It was similar ground in the Diamond Jubilee when he was fourth, just a short-head in front of Suedois.
It’s difficult to win with Suedois but he was also second in the July Cup and third in the Haydock Sprint, and is set to step up to 7f – even a mile – after this, whereas Magical Memory seems very much a sprinter. So it could be Suedois on the ground, granted a strong pace.
The Tin Man was second when Suedois was third at Haydock and his penalty now brings them close together, though soft surface would be a worry for The Tin Man.
As a Pivotal, Brando was always going to be a soft-ground horse. Sure enough he was second in the Wokingham and won the Sandown Sprint, both with the ground riding soft.
His line to the form is that he was third to The Tin Man, beaten only around a length, at levels for the British Champions Sprint. The form puts him in front of today’s field with the soft ground the clincher.
Though Brando is 0-5 at York, one of them was in the Group-1 Nunthorpe and he started last year as runner-up in the Jack Berryh Handicap (opening race tomorrow),
He was the ‘moral’ that day, giving 7lb to the winner, beaten only threeparts of a length. Brando was 19lb higher when he reappeared in the Group-3 Abernant in April and won going away. The nap at 3.85 on BETDAQ this morning.
ANY PORT IN TODAY’S STORMS!
4.05 York (Musidora Stakes) If, by now, the rain has the going turned soft even heavy, that burst we saw from Shutter Speed at Newbury could be blunted.
Vociferous Marina enjoyed the sound surface at Navan, according to Jim Bolger’s representative. Miss Infinitiy takes a keen hold and has never won in England.
Serenada’s sister won this race four years ago, and Vintage Folly, has been waiting for soft ground. I took 10.5 and 13.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
4.35 York Trainer James Given is in terrific form (4-8) and his runner here, Tawny Port, was similarly four from eight as a two-year-old yet was always reckoned a likely better three-year-old.
His sire has an even more impressive percentage for his progeny’s runs on the soft, yet tawny port is 34.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20; minimum one point)
2.20 York
BET 2pts win and place AL NEKSH
BET 1pt win and place LUSTROUS LIGHT
2.55 York
BET 1.8pts win and place RIDE LIKE THE WIND
3.30 York
BET 7pts win (nap) BRANDO
4.05 York
BET 2pts win SERENADA
BET 1.6pts win VINTAGE FOLLY
4.35 York
BET 1pts win and place TAWNY PORT
5.35 York
BET 2pts win and place CHANCERY
5.55 Bath
BET 5pts win MUDAJAJ
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