COGNIZANT: The PGA Tour heads east this week for a tournament that has been part of the schedule for over 50 years and has long signified the kickoff of the Florida Swing, when the weather and the action both heat up ahead of the year’s first major. Of course, this event is no longer called the Honda Classic — after a 41-year run for the Japanese automaker corporate sponsorship changed hands a couple of years ago and it’s now the Cognizant. I’m sure the players could care less about what it says on the trophy as long as that $1.65 million first-place check cashes, right? And Cognizant, the company, is a perfect corporate name sponsor — a faceless, impenetrable borg of an organization with too many layers and tentacles to be properly understood as anything other than “tech overlord”. All the sentimentality of a drainpipe.
One thing that hasn’t changed, at least in the past 20 years or so, is the venue, PGA National Champion Course, a typical South Florida track full of bermudagrass and water hazards. Despite measuring just 7,167 yards from all the way back, it’s a stiff test, and if the wind blows it can become downright nasty. The winner of this tournament has failed to reach 10-under for the week three times since 2018, and until Austin Eckroat broke through with a 17-under 267 last year this event had seen winning scores hover between 6 and 12-under for over a decade. The course is tight off the tee, with water everywhere you turn and firm bermuda greens that are heavily bunkered. And then there’s the infamous Bear Trap, holes 15, 16, and 17, two treacherous par-3s sandwiched around a difficult par-4. When the wind is right, it can be among the most challenging 3-hole stretches in golf and has ruined many a player’s round and tournament. This is one of the few non-majors that regularly features an over-par cut.
The field this week is by no means the weakest one we’ve seen this season, though it’s light on top-end talent, with only two top-25 players in attendance. One of those, World No. 18 Shane Lowry, heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 25.0, and I’m sure he’ll draw plenty of action at that price given his stellar record here which includes top-5 finishes in each of the past three years. There are some other intriguing names near the top of the market, like the red-hot Sepp Straka (27.0) and the reborn Daniel Berger (26.0), and it’s worth noting that only twice in the past six years has the champion here started the week at 50/1 or shorter. This has historically been a great spot for the triple-digit longshot. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Daniel Berger (26.0)- Before a three-year slump marked by injuries and a loss of confidence, Berger was a cash machine at this tournament, racking up three top-5 finishes, including a runner-up, in a 7-year span. With its demanding tee-to-green nature, wall-to-wall bermuda, and many intimidating shots, the Champion Course is an ideal fit for the famously unflappable Berger. He’s a Florida native who grew up on courses just like this and has developed an immunity to some of the stressors that will unravel so many players this week. Critically, he’s fully on the other side of the doldrums now and needs only a victory to truly be considered “back”. He almost got it in Phoenix three weeks ago, finishing runner-up after posting 17-under for the week, and he followed that up with a 12th-place showing at the Genesis. He’s going to be tough to beat this week and is worth a bet at 25/1.
Andrew Novak (48.0)- After 92 PGA Tour starts Novak seems to be getting the hang of things, logging 12 top-25 finishes last season and three already this year. He nearly closed the deal at the Farmers back in January until a final round 74 left him in a tie for 3rd, and he was back in contention the following week at Pebble, opening with rounds of 69-65 and going on to finish 13th. He also tied for 13th at the Genesis last time out, so he’s in terrific form and will be a dangerous player as the Tour moves to the bermuda-covered courses of the Southeast, where he grew up. Novak had a good run through the Florida Swing last year and played especially well in this tournament, breaking par in all four rounds and finishing 9th, so he definitely knows his way around the course and should enter this week with a lot of confidence. He’s a good value at nearly 50/1.
Michael Kim (90.0)- Known more for his social media presence than his golf these past few years, Kim is turning that narrative on its head in ’25, reeling off top-15 finishes in each of his last three starts, including a runner-up at the Phoenix Open earlier this month. He’s been flushing it, ranking 14th on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green and 7th in bogey avoidance, indicating that he’s in full control of the golf ball. He’s also been pretty handy around the greens, ranking 8th in scrambling and 10th in sand save percentage. Though he’s never made any real noise at this event, he’s also never come in on the kind of run that he’s on right now. I’m fairly enthusiastic about the opportunity to back a guy at 90.0 who is playing the best golf of his career and came within a whisker of winning just three weeks ago.
