SONY OPEN: The PGA Tour’s wraparound season means the Sony Open no longer leads off the schedule, but as the first full-field event of 2016 it still feels like the season opener for all intents and purposes. After all, the vast majority of the field will be teeing it up in competition for the first time in nearly a month, and for many this is the start of a weekly grind that won’t slow down until October or November.
Waialae Country Club has hosted this event since its inception in 1965, and the venerable 7,044 yard, par-70 layout hasn’t changed much over the years, with the small greens and narrow fairways providing ample defense if the wind is blowing, which it nearly always is. Accuracy off the tee is helpful but precision iron play is an absolute must at Waialae, as each of the last 14 Sony Open champions ranked in the top-12 in Greens in Regulation the year they won. We should also note that 11 of the past 17 winners of this event competed in the limited-field Hyundai Tournament of Champions the week before winning. Now, that could be a result of having an extra week in Hawaii to sharpen things up, or it could simply be a matter of the best players in the world being clustered in the Tournament of Champions field. Whatever the case may be, it’s something worth taking into consideration as we handicap this week’s action, as twenty-two players in the field teed it up at Kapalua.
Jimmy Walker is the two-time defending champion here so it shouldn’t be surprising that he leads the market at BETDAQ (16.0), though it should be noted that Walker’s game has been a little spotty over the last several months as he’s tried to incorporate some of the things that he’s been working on with swing coach Butch Harmon, who he just started seeing last year. Still, it’s tough to bet against Walker on this track, and a 3rd-round 64 last week suggests that his game isn’t very far off. Throwing a couple of bucks his way may not be a bad idea, but my money’s going in a different direction. Here’s what I have in mind:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brandt Snedeker (25.0)- This is Snedeker’s first appearance at this event since 2008, so we don’t have a past record of success that we can point to, but Waialae sure seems like his type of course, as it’s all about keeping the ball in front of you, making putts and stringing together birdies. Snedeker always seems to excel in a birdie-fest, with his last three wins coming at Pebble Beach (twice) and the RBC Canadian Open, places where 10-to-15 under simply doesn’t cut it. It took 23-under to get the job done here last year and not everyone in the field feels comfortable taking it that deep, but Snedeker certainly does. Just last week, after all, he shot 21-under and tied for 3rd at the Hyundai, with a hot putter carrying him to a 65-67 weekend finish. I’m betting he keeps it going this week and finds himself around the lead on Sunday afternoon.
Harris English (48.0)- English ended 2015 in a bit of a slump, finishing in the top-20 just once in his last 13 events. He looked like he was starting to get it figured out in November’s RSM Classic, though, and he’s had six weeks of fine tuning since then, so don’t be surprised if he starts 2016 in a very positive way. After all, he certainly seems to like it at Waialae, finishing 3rd here last year, 4th in 2014, and 9th in 2013. In other words, the next time English struggles at the Sony Open will be the first time. He’s flying under the radar a bit after a quiet past few months, but he’s a world-class player who will be teeing it up at a place where he always has success. Sounds like a bargain at nearly 50/1.
Zac Blair (128.0)- Blair is unknown to a lot of people after making just 19 of 34 cuts last season, his rookie year on the PGA Tour. The young BYU product has plenty of game, though, and we began to see glimpses of it late in the season, most notably with his 4th-place finish at The Barclays. He played very well at Waialae last year, shooting 64-67 over the weekend to finish 6th, but the real reason I’m on him this week has everything to do with a little inside information. You see, I have it from a trusted source (no less than Blair’s own caddy) that Blair is hitting the ball as well as he ever has right now, and he surely feels comfortable coming back to a place where he tasted his first real PGA Tour success. How did I come across this information? Well, let’s just say that living in Ponte Vedra and playing a lot of golf has its perks. You don’t have to believe me, but I suggest you keep an eye on Blair as the week unfolds.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Chris Kirk (1.91) vs. Graeme McDowell (1.91)
Both of these guys played the Hyundai last week and neither fared particularly well, though Kirk did rank 5th in the field in Greens in Regulation, which could be a promising sign. McDowell was in good form back in November but the layoff appears to have hurt him a bit, and the Sony isn’t one of his usual stops. Kirk, on the other hand, has a great record here, finishing 2nd in 2014, 5th in 2013, and 26th last year. Recommendation: Kirk at 1.91
Adam Scott (1.91) vs. Zach Johnson (1.91)
These are two world-class players, obviously, but it’s a bit difficult for me to rely on Scott based on his spotty schedule and relationship with the standard-length putter that he’s now forced to use. Johnson closed with a 67 in Kapalua last week and has now finished 22nd or better in six of his last seven starts. Recommendation: Johnson at 1.91
