VALERO TEXAS OPEN: The PGA Tour returns to the Lone Star State this week for the Valero Texas Open, an event that has been around for nearly 100 years and has been won by some of the true greats of the game, names like Walter Hagen, Byron Nelson, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer… the list goes on. It may not be a regular stop for the elite players any longer, but this tournament is rich in history and tradition and is well-supported by the local community, giving it a “down-home” feel that is somewhat unique in today’s corporatized world of professional golf.
And the names on the trophy aren’t the only attraction: the star of the show is the sprawling Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, a Greg Norman design that measures over 7,400 yards and can be downright nasty when the wind blows, which it often does. The fairways aren’t overly narrow but the course always plays firm, and it can be difficult to avoid the trees, bunkers, and native underbrush that line most every hole. The sticky Bermuda rough and the undulating, difficult-to-hold greens only complicate matters, and the scoring generally reflects the rugged layout, as this tournament hasn’t seen a winning score lower than 12-under in five years.
Kevin Chappell (32.0) is the defending champion and is one of the favorites again, with only six players currently sporting shorter odds at BETDAQ. This event last produced a back-to-back winner in ’08 and ’09, when Zach Johnson pulled it off, and Chappell has a long record of success at the Oaks Course, but he’s coming off back-to-back missed cuts and has yet to find the top-5 in 12 starts this season, so he’s a risky play this week– too risky for me at the current price. Besides, this tournament hasn’t exactly been dominated by the market leaders in years past, with the likes of Steven Bowditch, Ben Curtis, Brendan Steele, and Eric Axley taking home the trophy over the past decade, so it might be a good week to seek out value a little further down the board. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ryan Moore (30.0)- Moore has quietly been putting in some solid work lately, finding the top-10 three times in his past eight starts– including a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month. He’s coming off a good week at the RBC Heritage, finishing 16th despite a mediocre Sunday 72, and he seems exceedingly comfortable off the tee right now– he ranks 12th on Tour in driving accuracy, so he’s a good fit anywhere putting it in play is a top priority. And while TPC San Antonio isn’t ultra-tight, it’s the type of place where making birdies is nearly impossible if you don’t hit fairways, as holding the greens and controlling ball-flight/spin is difficult from the longish Bermuda rough. Moore has always been the type to play difficult courses well, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that he’s fared well in two previous stops at this event, finishing 8th in 2012 and 18th last year. He seems primed for a big week and should be given careful consideration at a price like 30.0.
Martin Laird (58.0)- It was a tough start to the season for Laird, as he missed the cut in three of his first five events, but he got his game together in mid-February and has been rock-solid since, finishing 32nd or better in four of his past five starts and finding the top-10 twice in that span. He’s a 3-time winner on the PGA Tour but it hasn’t happened in awhile– since 2013, to be exact. And where was that 2013 triumph, you ask? Well, it was right here at TPC San Antonio, in this very event– Laird shot 14-under, still the lowest score posted in this tournament since it moved to TPC San Antonio in 2010, so he’s certainly shown the ability to master the Oaks Course. Last year Laird was in the mix here through three rounds before fading with a Sunday 75 and settling for 18th, and he was struggling coming into the event, having gone MC-T49-T64 in his three previous starts. So what should we expect this year, when he brings a little bit of game to a course that quite obviously suits him? I’ll tell you this: at a price like 58.0, I’m willing to pay to find out.
Kevin Tway (100.0)- Considering Tway has never won in 74 career PGA Tour starts and has yet to register a top-10 this season, some may consider this pick a bit of a reach, even at a price like 100.0. But Tway has been close lately, making the cut in four straight events, and if he’s going to break through, it might just happen at the place he nearly broke through last year– right here at TPC San Antonio. Tway was unflappable 12 months ago, posting 9-under 279 and tying for third, just three behind winner Kevin Chappell. He and Chappell were the only players in the field to shoot par or better in all four rounds, so it would seem that the Oaks Course is a good fit for Tway. And why wouldn’t it be? He’s from Oklahoma (not quite a Texan, but close enough), so he’s played windswept, Bermuda-covered courses like TPC San Antonio his whole life. Plus, he’s a verified bomber, ranking 9th on Tour in driving distance, and length off the tee is a definite advantage at the Oaks Course. All things considered, I view Tway as a live longshot this week and am happy to back him at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Matt Kuchar (1.9) vs. Sergio Garcia (1.78)
Sergio heads BETDAQ’s Win Market and is the highest-ranked player in the field, but we haven’t seen him since his meltdown at the Masters and he doesn’t have much of a record at this event, finishing 45th in his only career appearance (2010). Kuchar seems like a much more reliable option: he nearly always plays well in this tournament, going 6-for-6 in cuts made and finding the top-15 three times, and he’s been in good form lately, finishing 8th in Houston three weeks ago, 28th at the Masters, and 23rd at the RBC Heritage last week. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.9
Jimmy Walker (1.93) vs. Brandt Snedeker (1.81)
Walker is a San Antonio resident who has a great record in this event, highlighted by a victory in 2015. He hasn’t had a great season thus far but he’s made four straight cuts and he’s coming off a T20 at the Masters, so his game seems to be moving in the right direction. Snedeker is coming off a T23 at the RBC Heritage, but that was his first top-25 of 2018, and it really consisted of three average rounds and a brilliant 2nd-round 64. I just don’t feel like Snedeker is trustworthy at the moment, and I would view it as a minor upset were he to beat Walker at the place the Texan knows best. Recommendation: Walker at 1.93
