MAYAKOBA: Another week, another time zone for the PGA Tour’s Fall Series– this time it’s a trip from Bermuda to the equally lovely Playa del Carmen, Mexico, where the strongest field we’ve seen in weeks will tee it up with $7.2 million on the line.
This tournament has been around for 15 years now, so don’t let the new title sponsor fool you– formerly known as the Mayakoba Classic, this event has been held at El Camaleon Golf Club since its inception, and this will mark the ninth consecutive year that it’s been part of the Fall Series. The most notable thing that’s changed over the life of this tournament is the quality of the field– once an opposite-field event that mostly attracted lower-tier grinders and partial status players, this is now one of the jewels of the fall schedule, as top-tier players seem to have decided that spending an early November week at a 5-star oceanfront Mexican resort doesn’t sound like too bad an idea, after all. Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Mexico’s own Abraham Ancer are among the bigger names in attendance this week, as well Norwegian star Viktor Hovland, who posted 20-under here last year to earn his second career PGA Tour victory.
The course, El Camaleon, is a Greg Norman design that is well-regarded by the players and has produced several exciting finishes over the years, including last year, when Hovland made a 10-footer for birdie on the 72nd hole to avoid a playoff with Aaron Wise. At only 7,017 yards, it’s rather short by Tour standards, so this is one of the (few) weeks where length off the tee is essentially irrelevant– as a matter of fact, 10 of the past 14 winners here have finished that season ranked outside the top 100 on Tour in driving distance (h/t @JustinRayGolf). Finding fairways, however, is critical at El Camaleon, as the greens are small and it’s difficult to control approach shots from the sticky paspalum rough. We want guys who are accurate off the tee and precise with the short-to-mid irons. A hot putter wouldn’t hurt, either.
With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Abraham Ancer (19.0)- An Ancer victory would be tremendously popular with the local fans, and it almost feels inevitable at some point– El Camaleon is a perfect fit for Ancer’s fairways-and-greens game, so it should come as no surprise that he’s absolutely feasted here in recent years, shooting a combined 52-under in his last 16 competitive rounds at this tournament and finishing 21st or better in each of the past four years, with a pair of top-10s. He’s simply figured out how to play the course, so whether he shoots 3-under or 6-under on a given day comes down to putting. And based on what we saw at the CJ Cup a couple of weeks ago, when Ancer posted 19-under on the strength of a third-round 63, he seems to be rolling the rock pretty well. I know Justin Thomas is technically the market leader this week, but Ancer is the favorite in my book and is well worth a bet at nearly 20/1.
Emiliano Grillo (70.0)- This is simply too big a price for Grillo, who has made a veritable fortune in this event over the years and is just two starts removed from a top-20 at the CJ Cup, where he closed with a scorched-earth 61 to post 18-under for the week. A terrific ball-striker, Grillo ranked in the top-20 on Tour on both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach last season, and that sort of precision makes him deadly at El Camaleon, where he’s a combined 61-under par in his last 20 competitive rounds, racking up four top-15 finishes in the process. Unlike many in the field this week, Grillo has been extraordinarily active lately, logging five starts since mid-September’s Fortinet Championship, but he took last week off, so he should be fresh and ready for one of his favorite events on the schedule. He’s a tremendous value at a price like 70.0.
Adam Long (128.0)- The “horses for courses” special of the week is Adam Long, who has left no doubt about his ability to succeed at El Camaleon. A 34-year old journeyman who has 1 PGA Tour victory across 87 careers starts, Long has only played this event twice– in 2019, and again last year. His scores: 63-69-67-66-70-67-63-67. He shot 19-under in 2019 and was runner-up, and 17-under last year to finish third. How’s that for course history?? The man arrives on property and sees green lights at every turn. He’ll probably name his daughter Mayakoba. And we can get him at better than 125/1, despite the fact that he’s been in fine form lately, posting top-30 finishes in two of his last three starts. This is the easiest decision of the week for me.
