San Diego Chargers (4-1, 5-0 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (0-4, 2-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Diego -7.5 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: OT D.J. Fluker (questionable– ankle), G Rich Ohrnberger (questionable– back), WR Malcom Floyd (questionable– calf), LB Jarret Johnson (questionable– back), LB Reggie Walker (questionable– ankle), RB Donald Brown (out– concussion), RB Ryan Mathews (out– knee), LB Manti Te’o (out– foot), CB Shareece Wright (out– knee)
Oakland: WR Vincent Brown (questionable– hamstring), QB Derek Carr (questionable– ankle), LB Sio Moore (questionable– ankle), RB Marcel Reece (questionable– quadricep), G Khalif Barnes (out– quadricep), CB Keith McGill (out– groin)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games
San Diego is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
San Diego is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss
Oakland is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week
Oakland is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
The underdog is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-0 in San Diego’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 13-3 in San Diego’s last 16 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 4-1-1 in Oakland’s last 6 home games
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. Where do I start? The Chargers are 4-1, 5-0 against the spread, and have covered in 10 of their last 11 games stretching back to last season. The Raiders, on the other hand, are winless and will be playing their first game under interim coach Tony Sparano after Dennis Allen was fired last week. This is an elite team facing a team in disarray. Place your bets accordingly.
2. Philip Rivers may be the favorite to win the MVP award, as he’s averaging over 280 pass yards per game and leading an offense that’s ranked 9th in point scored. His counterpart on Sunday, Oakland’s Derek Carr, is a rookie who has thrown an interception in every one of his 4 career starts. Making matters worse is the fact that Carr won’t be fully healthy after injuring his ankle last week.
3. The Chargers lead the NFL in points allowed and rank 3rd in yards allowed, while Oakland has the NFL’s worst offense by any objective measure. The Raiders rank 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in total yards per game, rush yards per game, and points scored. This is a total mismatch.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1.The Raiders are coming off a bye and they’re getting more than a touchdown in a home game against a division rival. Moreover, the underdog always does well in this matchup, covering in 9 of the past 10 meetings between the two teams.
2. Oakland has a veteran secondary that ranks 5th in passing defense, surrendering just 207 pass yards per game. That should serve them well against a pass-first Chargers attack that will be even more one-dimensional than usual due to injuries to their top three tailbacks. The Raiders limited the Tom Brady-led New England offense to 16 points in a Week 3 game in Foxboro.
3. Sports bettors are always looking for buy low/sell high opportunities, and this one qualifies: the Chargers are riding a wave of public adulation after their recent winning streak and are being treated like a Super Bowl contender despite problems on the offensive line and in the secondary, while the Raiders could be a good “buy low” candidate after their recent coaching change and two-week period to rest and regroup.
Prediction
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