New England Patriots (3-2, 2-3 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -2.5 (45)
Significant Injuries
New England: CB Brandon Browner (questionable– ankle), DE Dominique Easley (questionable– shoulder), C Byron Stork (questionable– head), LB Jamie Collins (questionable– thigh), LB Dont’a Hightower (questionable– knee), WR Matthew Slater (questionable– shoulder), S Nate Ebner (out– finger), OT Cameron Fleming (out– finger)
Buffalo: RB Fred Jackson (questionable– ankle), LB Nigel Bradham (questionable– knee), CB Ron Brooks (questionable– neck), LB Brandon Spikes (questionable– ribs), DT Kyle Williams (questionable– knee), WR Marcus Easley (out– knee), G Chris Williams (out– back)
Recent Trends
New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games
New England is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings between these 2 teams
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC East opponents
Buffalo is 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a win
The OVER is 7-2 in New England’s last 9 games vs. AFC East opponents
The UNDER is 5-0 in Buffalo’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New England
1. Well, if you’re thinking about betting on the Bills to beat the Patriots, you should be aware that you would be betting on a very rare occurrence. Tom Brady is an incredible 22-2 in 24 career starts against Buffalo, and Brady just got finished shredding a Cincinnati defense that led the league in many statistical categories. This is Tom Brady vs. Kyle Orton, Bill Belichick vs. Doug Marrone, the Patriots vs. the Bills. Don’t overthink it.
2. The Bills have one of the NFL’s worst offenses, a unit that ranks 26th in total yards per game and 28th in points scored. They tried to get things moving by replacing starting quarterback E.J. Manuel with Kyle Orton prior to last week’s game, but Orton led the Bills to just 17 points and threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown.
3. The Patriots showed last week that they can still put up points on any defense in the league by hanging 43 points on Cincinnati. However, it’s been the New England defense that has carried the team this season– the Pats currently rank 4th in total defense and 3rd against the pass, surrendering just 196.6 pass yards per game. It’s difficult to imagine the Kyle Orton-led Buffalo offense having much success in this matchup.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. Before last week the Bills were a good team with one glaring weakness: they didn’t have a capable quarterback. However, Doug Marrone pulled the plug on the E.J. Manuel experiment after Week 4 and declared Kyle Orton the starter, and Orton responded by throwing for over 300 yards and leading the Bills to a come-from-behind victory in Detroit this past Sunday. Watch out– Buffalo is now one of the most complete teams in the AFC and not many people realize it.
2. The Bills have an elite defense that allows just 17.8 points per game, which is fewer than all but 3 teams leaguewide. They excel at rushing the passer– they’re currently tied for the NFL lead with 17 sacks– and the Patriots have struggled mightily in pass protection this year, which is a big reason why they rank in the bottom-half of the league in both total offense and pass yards per game.
3. The Patriots have been terrible on the road lately, covering just twice in their last 10 attempts. The Bills, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 division games and 8-3 against the number in their last eleven at home. A home ‘dog against a divisional foe, Buffalo is a great situational play here.
Prediction
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