DUNDALK: SHAMROCK has ‘found one’ on the all-weather at Dundalk on Wednesday evening. A horse he believes to be vastly overpriced. The filly is the outsider of five on BETDAQ and SHAMROCK is napping her.
There’s a punting dilmena, call it a muddle, in the 6.45 at Dundalk. Do you side with the lesser raced horses with more scope or the ones that are dropping down in class and have already had their limitations exposed with more experience ?
The answer, as always, lies with the BETDAQ market and I can’t help but think that the market has got this race completely wrong which means it’s time to step in and bet.
I can’t understand why JANEY MUDDLES is such a big price, in fact the outsider of the quintet at around 9. Is it simply a case of backers being swayed towards the sexier form figures of her rivals?
1244-29 doesn’t read that well for Janey Muddles and it’s fair to say she’s proved disappointing after an impressive winning debut at the Curragh last May but she really was pitched in at the deep end by Jim Bolger. Three of her subesequent four starts came at Group level including a sixth in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newamrket.
She was thought good enough to contest the 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown recently on her latest start and in the end beat only two home (but one of those was tonight’s rival Ishvana). She was only beaten an aggregate of four lengths though by the winner Homecoming Queen.
We need to take her ability to handle the all-weather on trust tonight, but that is more than factored into the price and I refuse to believe that her form on balance isn’t better than the market leader Piri Wango who duelled with another of tonight’s rivals Caprella over a mile in an ordinary handicap here last time.
I’m stepping in because the odds, I believe, are in my favour.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Janey Muddles (6.45 Dundalk)
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