LUCKY 13.0 BETDAQ VALUE AS RAIN COULD GIVE GUINEAS TO FRANCE: Get an early position on a French horse –13.0 on Betdaq this morning – is Daqman’s advice, as Newmarket is forced to admit that the 2,000 Guineas will be run on soft ground. This particular colt is now the likely second favourite.
HERE’S DAQMAN’S BREEDING ANALYSIS: The favourite, Camelot, falls short in Daqman’s breeding analysis, not on quality but on mile potential in his second season. When Daqman adds his form ABC and the going to that analysis, the French are common to them all.
Top quality and bred for the mile. But will they act on the soft in the 2,000 Guineas? I have given marks (1 to 10) for Classic quality on breeding and added a ‘D’ for the mix that should trap the winner at the distance.
If you count that quotient as 10 points, my result is Born To Sea 17, Bronterre 17, Fencing 17, Top Offer 17, Trumpet Major 16, Abtaal 14, Redact 13, French Fifteen 12, Red Duke 12.
But there are warnings from some trainers – Born To Sea, Fencing, and Top Offer, in particular – that more rain will scupper their chances. There’s even doom and gloom from the Trumpet Major camp.
I flagged him for an easy surface in my Guineas ABC form guide after his Craven romp but connections are worried that softer-than-ever ground will slow down an exuberant colt. Bronterre is also a free-running type.
Top marks in that ABC guide went to Abtaal, Camelot, Parish Hall, French Fifteen, Power, Trumpet Major and Born To Sea.
Add my two lists together on a rainy day, and the common denominators on the soft are the French colts, of which Abtaal is preferred, having beaten French Fifteen as a two-year-old and unlucky in running behind the same horse in the Prix Djebel trial, the race Makfi won before stealing the Newmarket prize.
Don’t take the 9-1 Abtaal with Corals when you can get 13.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I predict that, with Christophe Soumillon in the saddle, Abtaal will be second only to Camelot in the market on the day.
Abtaal 4D: American sire Rock Hard Ten’s progeny have won Grade 3 at best, with the exception of Nereid, winner of a small-field Grade-1 American Oaks on firm and third to Ballydoyle’s Together in the US Queen Elizabeth 11 Cup.
Best known Rock Hard Ten in the British Isles was his filly Long Lashes, Sweet Solera winner as a juvenile who had won her maiden on soft ground, but she showed no improvement in her second season. Abtaal himself has proved himself on very soft ground and at the highest level of trial race.
Boomerang Bob 2: Aussie Rules has produced only a Group-3 winner in Germany. All progeny has won minor prizes otherwise.
Born To Sea 7D: Son of Invincible Spirit, who has mainly produced hot sprinters, but got French Derby (1m 2f) winner, Lawman, and more recently Moonlight Cloud, currently a star at 7f but entered in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot.
But, being out of Arc winner Urban Sea, Born To Sea is closely related to the magnificent Sea The Stars (Guineas and Derby), half-brother to the fabulous Galileo.
Bronterre 7D: By the same sire (Oasis Dream) as the mighty Midday, winner from 10f to 1m 4f of the Nassau Stakes (three times), Prix Vermeille, Yorkshire Oaks, and a Breeders Cup (filly and mare).
Oasis Dream’s best miler is probably Prix Du Moulin winner, Aqlaam. Oasis Dream is also the ‘daddy’ of another Guineas runner, Power.
Bronterre’s dam injects speed as half-sister to Cherry Hinton and Fred Darling winner out of half-sister to a sprint champion.
Camelot 6: Montjeu has a massive list of Pattern winners but a poor record in any Guineas (including St Nicholas Abbey’s Newmarket flop), though an impressive one in Derbys, as sire of Authorized, Hurricane Run, Motivator and Pour Moi. Camelot’s dam was a Group-3 winner at 1m 1f.
Caspar Netscher 3: Sire Dutch Art’s best so far, with no top honours to report, but interesting cross with Singspeil line, going back to very smart Bella Colora.
Coupe De Ville 3: Sire’s progeny shows best form at two, and related on dam’s side to US stakes winners up to 1m 1f.
Fencing 7D: By Street Cry, who got the American superstar Zenyatta (19 wins from 20 runs, mainly at 9f) and three other Grade-1 scorers. Dam, winner of the French Oaks, is half-sister to French Derby (1m 2f) winner Lawman.
French Fifteen 2D: Progeny of sire Turtle Bowl so far of little account, and dam’s CV relies only on French Fifteen’s success.
Furner’s Green 3: Son of multiple Group-1 winner, Dylan Thomas, but Furner’s Green his best so far. Dam daughter of high-class miler.
Hermival 5: Dubawi colt. Sire has got Guineas winner Makfi, Queen Elizabeth 11 winner Poet’s Voice and recent Dubai World Cup king Monterosso. Undistinguished female line.
Mandaean 3: Sire’s best so far. Dam’s side goes back to Derby winner Golden Fleece.
Mighty Ambition 5: Same sire as Fencing. Dam, sister of very tough Islington, has had winners up to 1m 4f but Group 3 at best.
Parish Hall 3: Son Of Teofilo, who had to be withdrawn when hot Guineas favourite; this is his first Group-1 winner and easily the best he’s got. First foal; dam related to 1m 2f and hurdles winners.
Power 6: By the same stallion as Bronterre, equine father of the mighty Midday, winner from 10f to 1m 4f of the Nassau Stakes (three times), Prix Vermeille, Yorkshire Oaks, and a Breeders Cup (filly and mare).
Power is half-brother to a Ribblesdale winner; and his dam is half-sister to 2,000 Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand.
Ptolemaic 2: Sire Excellent Art produces Group-3 winners at best.
Redact 3D: Another Strategic Prince, La Collina, beat Power in the Phoenix Stakes. Dam half-sister to Gold Cup winner.
Red Duke 2D: Sire was second in the Kentucky Derby but has got nothing of note; dam out of Yorkshire Oaks winner
Saigon 2: Royal Applause colt. Sire has got 17 Group winners but just one Grade-1 winner in America and Group 2 at best in UK. Dam related to sprinters.
Talwar 2: Sired by Royal Applause’s son, Acclamation, responsible for top sprinter Equiano and top Group-1 winning two-year-old Dark Angel. Dam represents Group-3 performers at 6f/7f.
Top Offer 7D: Son of super sire Dansili, who has produced King George winner Harbinger and Arc hero Rail Link. He’s a half-brother to a 1m2f winner out of a 1m-1m 2f Listed winner.
Trumpet Major 6D: By Arakan, who leapt into the breeding headlines through his son, Dick Turpin, top miler who was runner-up to Makfi in the 2,000 Guineas. Dam’s side speedy sprinters.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9.3pts win (nap) SIDE GLANCE (3.10 Kempton)
BET 6.7pts win THIMAAR (3.45 Kempton)
BET 1.5pts win TEDDY’S REFLECTION (7.30 Kelso)
BET 2.4pts win OMOKOROA (8.00 Kelso)
ANTE-POST: WIN-40 JACKPOT: 3.3pts win ABTAAL (2,000 Guineas, Newmarket, Saturday)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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