SHAMROCK LAY AT NAVAN: SHAMROCK takes on the Aidan O’Brien trained odds-on favourite in the opener at Navan today. Dick Whittington was beaten at 2/7 last time out and may struggle again today.
Here I go again…. Taking on an Aidan O’Brien trained hotpot.
I thought colleague DAQMAN made several good points about the mathematics of betting yesterday. It really is all about three things. PROBABILITY, ODDS and I would add in CONSISTENCY.
If you believe horses are too short in the betting – you can only prove your theories in the long run and not be put off when the percentages go against you – as they will.
A case in point today is Aidan O’Brien’s Dick Whittington who is around 1.7 to win the opener at Navan. I can’t be backing him at this price and have to take him on.
He made a promising enough debut when a close second at Naas but then failed at long odds on (2/7) to win at the Curragh when he was brushed aside by Jim Bolger’s Intense Style. The ground was testing that day which might well prove to be a legitimate excuse.
Intense Style went on to finish only 7th of 8 in a Listed race so it’s unlikely that Dick Whittington was beaten by a future star.
Dandyleekie won on debut here and steps up in trip and is a credible rival and the debutant Sameer could also be interesting if attracting late market support.
The 4.00 has atrracted just four runners but it looks an interesting contest and cases can be argued for all four.
I come down in favour of Maskoon who made all to win over course and distance last time out and the form has worked out well since.
SHAMROCK’S BETS:
NAP: Maskoon (4.00 Navan)
LAY: Dick Whittington (1.45 Navan)
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