DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 36-9: Daqman’s your man and BETDAQ is your hunting ground for value. Daqman has offered proof of the pudding – with lashings of custard – as he has dished up 36 returns on the Flat to just nine by Pricewise (overall 75-21 since November 23).
22.0 AND 14.5 BETDAQ VALUE IN SPRINTS: That’s his just desserts for expert analysis: today they clash in the 2.20 Sandown, 3.35 Musselburgh and 3.50 York, with the feature, the Scottish Sprint Cup. Daqman finds a 14.5 bet in that, plus a 22.0 offer in the consolation race.
LOOK OUT AT ROYAL ASCOT NEXT WEEK: Tomorrow’s Daqman features the Prix De Diane, the race which last year threw up the Arc winner, Treve. Then it’s Royal Ascot all the week, starting with Monday’s ABC Guide to the Gold Cup.
TICK CONFESSIONAL BOX: 14.5 ON BETDAQ
1.50 Sandown Favourites have been beaten eight years running, with winners at 20-1 (twice), 16-1 and 14-1, and Gothic, one of two big handicap chances for Freemason Lodge today, looks plenty short enough around 2-1.
Stall 3 has won it three times in four years, and Lawyer (7.8 on BETDAQ early mouse) looks poised there for Luca Cumani: my bet, Connecticut, was one of his two winners out of three yesterday.
Though it hasn’t swayed my judgment whether or not to bet Lawyer, I have just come out of a protracted property deal (11 months to sell a flat!) which I more than once described as Jarndyce v Jarndyce. Fortunately my own solicitor’s sense of humour prevailed but having to give three grand to the estate agent dampened my celebrations.
2.05 York (Queen Mother’s Cup) Crackenthorp’s form in this is 3110 but three-year-olds are 1310 and, as well as giving away six years, Crackenthorp is 15lb higher than Tiger Lilly, ridden by the 2008 winning jockey. I don’t bet in ladies’ races; my wives don’t like me having favourites.
2.20 Sandown Brownsea Brink has been expensive to follow this season after copping a stone rise for his hat-trick last year. He is now more than a stone worse off with Enobled, trained by the enobled Sir Michael Stoute.
Richard Hughes switches to Sea Shanty, another Richard Hannon contender, and another having to work high in the handicap for a hat-trick last season.
I couldn’t fancy St Moritz, raised back up in class at the age of eight, and yet another hat-trick winner, Capo Rosso, is now 12lb worse with Enobled for beating him on a day last Spring when the ground firmed up too much for the Stoute horse.
In fact, the main threat to Enobled (9.4 on BETDAQ this morning) may be the grey front-runner Amulet, a big price at offers of 16.0, dropped from the pattern after making all at Ascot in May.
2.30 Musselburgh (Scottish Sprint Cup Consolation) Four big sprints today. One stride late out of the stalls; one moment of interference; and, in particular, the effects of ground and draw. Those are the extra improbables which make betting on them a wallet-drainer.
They’ve finally had to split the Scottish Sprint Cup, and no reason why middle-to-high numbers should not be best in this consolation, as in the main event at 3.35.
I look to the top of consolation handicaps to those who missed the cut for the cup. If Chooseday (22.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) runs as well as he did at Beverley in the Spring, he could be hard to catch from stall 13.
2.55 Sandown (Scurry Stakes) Up until the Derby, these three-year-old handicaps bemused punters but at a time when form has settled down, this one has gone to four favourites out of six, with only one winner bigger than 4-1.
How important is the Sandown draw? Well, three times in the last four years, stall one has won. And, apart from his 11 draw, I can’t fancy the favourite, G Force, stepping up from a class-3 handicap to a Listed.
David O’Mearo raves about him but he beat only class-4 and 5 horses that day and got quite agitated before the race. Has he the class to step up in grade, and has he the bottle? A lay for me, despite the stats.
G Force is Group-3 entered but Extortionist, Windsor Castle winner at Royal Ascot last year, was in the Kings Stand and Diamond Jubilee next week. Lowering his sights to this (at 13.5) could pay off.
3.15 York Youngsters aged three and four have outrun the older horses in both runnings of this. The older runners here are nearly horses and the race is flagged for a turn-up, so I’ll take the 15.0 Cordite and 18.0 Snowboarder, the young ones of the race.
3.35 Musselburgh (Scottish Sprint Cup) Dinkum Diamond, beaten half a length in the Epsom Dash off 5lb lower last year, has to give weight to this year’s winner, Caspian Prince. Both have been lucky with the draw.
Addictive Dream has a big pull on Caspian Prince for a head and a neck at Epsom, if you take Jordan Nason’s 7lb claim into account, but that may be eroded by his low draw. Move In Time is 9lb too high in the handicap and also drawn low.
Old boys Borderlescott, Tangerine Trees and Hawkeyethenoo could any one of them bounce back but the blot on the handicap, running himself into form this season, is Confessional.
Tim Easterby, one of my favourite handicap trainers, has Body And Soul in with a great shout from stall 14. He just failed to land me a 14-1 hit at York on the last day of May.
But he also has Confessional really well handicapped: a measure of his position today is that he was a neck off Move In Time at level weights in a Listed last time but officially in receipt of 11lb from that one here. Body And Soul (6.4 on BETDAQ this morning) and Confessional (14.5) are my bets.
3.50 York Not another sprint! I have to pick in the race to correspond with Pricewise. Isn’t it compounding the error of betting with bookmakers to follow their selected races!
They inevitably choose the biggest lotteries for their morning price lists, like the Scoop-6 does (it was always just an ad man’s game, Mr Jones).
We collected when Body And Soul won this last year, gambled in to 7-1 from twice the price with BETDAQ layers. He defied the draw stats (stalls 2 to 8 four years in five).
Eastern Impact and Danzeno both won on the Rowley Mile 6f in the Spring: Eastern Impact’s win was in a much better time against better company, yet he is more than twice the price of Danzeno on BETDAQ (11.0).
In fact, they are about ‘the same horse’ on a line through Danzeno’s runner-up at three lengths, Expert, who was then sixth to Eastern Impact, but Eastern Impact is in receipt of 5lb from Danzeno today.
Betimes and Zaraee ’could be anything’ but none fits that epithet more than Royal Mezyan (11.5), who raced in the pattern as a two-year-old, is low drawn and well in with Oisin Murphy’s 3lb claim a bonus.
TODAY’S NAP: All those sprints! Gotta get away from them. I hear that Finial (6.45 Leicester) could go well at 8.4 this morning, Clive Cox’s first venture for the Cheveley Park Stud.
Lupo d’Oro (3.30 Sandown, 8.2) has been laid out for a repeat, with Jamie Spencer booked and visors tried to sharpen him up, Lupo not Jamie (we hope).
But I finally settled on Aertex (4.05 Sandown) on this basis: Captain Bob, Galvanize, Erroneous and Secret Bullet are all front runners or race keenly. And Aertex learned to settle and came with a good surge at Newbury. Backed like a good thing this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win LAWYER and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) GOTHIC (1.50 Sandown).
BET 2.3pts win ENOBLED and 1.3pts win and place AMULET (2.20 Sandown)
BET 1pt win and place CHOOSEDAY (2.30 Musselburgh)
LAY 5pts G FORCE and BET 1.6pts win and place EXTORTIONIST (2.55 Sandown)
BET 1.4pts win CORDITE and 1.2pts win SNOWBOARDER (3.15 York)
BET 2.7pts win LUPO D’ORO (3.30 Sandown)
BET 3.7pts win BODY AND SOUL and 1.5pts win and place CONFESSIONAL (3.35 Musselburgh)
BET 2pts win on each EASTERN IMPACT and ROYAL MEZYAN (3.50 York)
BET 10pts win (nap) AERTEX (4.05 Sandown)
BET 2.7pts win FINIAL (6.45 Leicester)
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