BACK IN THE RED: After a cracking opening day SHAMROCK slipped back into the red at Punchestown yesterday on a tough day. It was more pink than red though as the NAP Briar Hill was withdrawn – possibly a blessing in disguise. Get SHAMROCK’s day three previews and selections for ALL EIGHT RACES.
We had a nice profit on Tuesday but slipped backwards yesterday. Apologies for the non runner with the nap – it was withdrawn after time of publication.
Here’s how the second day scorecard looked – full of bogies and double bogies:
3.40 Hartside (PLACE) LOST
4.20 Viconte Du Noyer (WIN) 3rd
4.55 Ballycasey (WIN) LOST
5.30 First Lieutenant (WIN and PLACE) 3rd
6.05 Briar Hill (NAP) (WIN) NON RUNNER
6.40 Callthepolice (WIN and PLACE) LOST
7.15 Real Steel (WIN) 2nd
Eight races today, starting at 3.40:
3:40 Stephens Green Hibernian Club Hurdle (4yo+, 2m 4f, 11 runners)
Record-breaking-trainer Willie Mullins starts Day 3 of this great festival level – two winners each with Gordon Elliott – after a one-a-day start to the meeting.
But all that could change today, with 12 Mullins representatives covering every one of the eight races. He’s likely to saddle three favourites, including Marito in this, a race he’s won twice in the last seven years.
A word of caution though. Is Willie Mulllins in form this week? Crazy to ask, possibly, after a Gold Cup success yesterday and an opening day winner – but both of those successes were hard fought 3/4 length victories and don’t forget he’s already had 18 runners this week.
By his own exceptional standards that might well represent a dip in form.
Outlander, Inish Island, Ballycasey, Call Me Bubbles, Back In Focus and notably Champagne Fever have all gone off at 3/1 or less and been beaten – in many cases running well below their best.
The secret with trends and stats is trying to get them at the beginning and/or end of the sequence – and being ahead of the masses when you can still use them for financial benefit.
On that basis I’m against Marito here, but not for that reason alone. He comes here on a back of a fall in the Jewson at Cheltenham, is switching back to hurdles and looks very tight in the market at around 2.39.
In his favour Marito was a very good second over C&D in a handicap here last season and was very much still in contention in the Jewson so has positives too but if my theory on the Mullins form is right – we might just get the edge needed to land a successful lay.
SELECTION: Marito (LAY)
4:15 Bibby Financial Services Handicap Chase (4yo+, 2m, 18 runners)
Arthur Moore used to farm this race in the good old days. The great Irish veteran is still a man to be wary of with a well-placed handicapper, and last year’s winning rider, David Casey – he won for Moore on Incas in 2003 – is called in to do the business on Pass The Hat.
Both trainer and jockey were carrying a hatful of punters’ money when Pass The Hat was beaten favourite at Fairyhouse, so this is a recoup mission.
If anything passes the Hat, it could be HARPST CORD who looks interesting in the place market. He was an unlucky loser at Limerick over Christmas and showed a return to form at Gowran last time. The step back in trip should help and hopefully see him fill one of the four places.
SELECTION: Harpsy Cord (PLACE)
4:50 Avon Ri Corporate & Leisure Resort Chase For The La Touche Cup (5yo+, 4m 1f, 17 runners)
The daddy of all cross-country banks races, the La Touche is the most traditional and the longest in Ireland at 4m 1f.
Incredibly, Enda Bolger has trained 11 of the last 14 winners but was gazumped last year by Willie Mullins with Uncle Junior, when the Bolger favourite, Arabella Boy, was brought down.
Here they are now lined up for the rematch. In fact, last year’s 1-2-3, Uncle Junior, Lydon House and Saddlers Storm are all in today’s line-up, along with the 2011 winner, Another Jewel, also back for more.
Though the November and December banks races at Cheltenham have been going nearly as long as this one (since the mid-1990s), the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country has proved much the better Punchestown guide since it started in 2005.
So into the mix add this year’s Cheltenham first, third and fourth, Big Shu, Outlaw Pete and Bostons Angel. What a race!
LONG STRAND, at around 30, looks far too big in the betting. He was third to Arabella Boy and Big Shu here in April and although beaten 9 lengths, has run well since and will be suited by the slightly better ground.
In a race where I can’t be certain about the principals I’ll take a pop at a price with Long Strand.
SELECTION: Long Strand (WIN and PLACE)
5:30 Ladbrokes World Series Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+, 3m, 7 runners)
Quevega and Willie Mullins go for a four-timer in this, with Quevega having already recorded a FIFTH straight win in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
SOLWHIT (right) is also on a roll, bidding to do a Sprinter Sacre and add a third festival gold in little more than five weeks to add to Cheltenham’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle and Aintree’s Liverpool Hurdle, where Holywell, who’d won the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, got within three lengths of him.
Reve De Sivola looks quite short in the betting given he had a hard race at Cheltenham and has over five lengths to find with Solwhit.
It’s a cracking race and I agree with the BETDAQ market. Solwhit edges it.
SELECTION: Solwhit (NAP) (WIN)
6:05 Naas Court Hotel And Il Fico Restaurant Handicap Hurdle (95-130) (4yo+, 3m, 28 runners)
Nine out of 10 winners since 2003 have come from the bottom of the handicap, 10st 11lb and lower.
No wonder shrewd handicap trainers like Paul Nolan, John Carr and, inevitably, Willie Mullins figure among the recent winners. The trio all have runners again today.
FOLLOWMEUPTOCARLOW races off 10-7 and proved he got this trip with a win at Fairyhouse last time out. It’s absolutely wide open so good luck with whatever you punt on.
SELECTION: Followmeuptocarlow (WIN and PLACE)
6:40 Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+, Class 1, 2m, 10 runners)
This race is a king maker, with names like War Of Attrition, Big Zeb, Captain Cee Bee and Captain Chris on its roll of honour.
BENEFFICIENT was a shock 20-1 winner of the Jewson at Cheltenham: was it a fluke? We’ll find out today, with Powers Gold Cup winner Realt Mor, Cheltenham Grand Annual winner Alderwood and Arkle runner-up Baily Green all among the competition.
And we haven’t even mentioned the special one…. Special Tiara who caused one of the shocks of the season at Aintree when beating Overturn and Alderwood at odds of 28-1.
Really tough, but on balance Benefficient.
SELECTION: Benefficient (WIN)
7:15 Orchid Transport Mares Novice Hurdle (4yo+, 2m, 7 runners)
Upsie daisy! Ruby Walsh has got off Twigline for the unbeaten UPSIE, yet another big chance for Willie Mullins in this first running of the mares’ novices.
I can’t see this race evading Mullins though and Upsie should remain unbeaten.
SELECTION: Upsie (WIN)
7:45 Kildare Post Flat Race (4-7yo, 2m, 16 runners)
Trainers Henry De Bromhead and Jessica ‘Jezki’ Harrington are back for more. Both beat Willie Mullins into second place in the only two previous runnings of this bumper.
British challenger CAPTAIN CUTTER ran well when third at Ascot and is worth chancing in a race that might not take as much winning than appears at first glance.
SELECTION: Captain Cutter (WIN)
SHAMROCK’S DAY THREE SELECTION SUMMARY
3.40 Marito (LAY)
4.15 Harpsy Cord (PLACE)
4.50 Long Strand (WIN and PLACE)
5.30 Solwhit (NAP) (WIN)
6.05 Followmeuptocarlow (WIN and PLACE)
6.40 Benefficient (WIN)
7.15 Upsie (WIN)
7.45 Captain Cutter (WIN)
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