GREEN FOR GO AT 9.8 ON BETDAQ: Daqman continues to probe the official race ratings, as declared in his manifesto, and comes up with 9.8 offer Baily Green as the one to be on at the Punchestown Festival, where his blushes were spared yesterday by the magnificent performance of Sir Des Champs (WON 2-1).
5.5 THE NAP AT BEVERLEY: Today at Beverley, Daqman finds a three times course winner with a penchant for firm ground: it’s all in his favour yet he’s 5.5 in BETDAQ morning offers. That’s his nap but he finds another horse given what he considers wrong ratings by the handicapper.
LOOK OUT AT SANDOWN TOMORROW: Daqman’s attack on the ratings and his revised betting strategy will again be the highlight at the big Sandown meeting tomorrow and Saturday and, as promised, his conclusions will appear next week as his racing strategy for the rest of the season.
If you’ve booked your holiday, don’t forget the travel pills. Trainer Mouse Morris is adamant this morning that Baily Green was a sick horse at Aintree after travelling badly.
He’s expecting to take revenge for a 5-2 (second favourite) defeat by the shock Aintree winner, 28-1 Special Tara, in Punchestown’s Ryanair (6.40) tonight.
Mouse believes their difference in price that day matched the difference in their ability, after Baily Green ran up to super-smart Simonsig at Cheltenham.
Don’t forget that Baily Green had beaten Special Tara 15 lengths, giving him 8lb, over today ‘s course in October. He was 9.8 this morning.
Benefficient, winner of the Jewson, drops back half a mile to the minimum today and this time it’s Willie Mullins who is intent on revenge, his Arvika Ligeonniere having beaten Benefficient 16 lengths at Leopardstown over Christmas.
It’s terrific decider in which I may not yet have named the winner but feel that Grand Annual scorer, Alderwood, jumped too badly for my liking at Aintree and Realt Mor needs further.
It’s not what beats you but what you beat that counts, so Baily Green’s rise by 11lb to 158 for running second to Simonsig is questionable but it was an Arkle, and those behind him that day justify the handicapper’s verdict.
Baily Green had a 151 horse 13 lengths third and a 165 in fourth, which equates to anything between 164 and 193! He’s not a 193, of course, but he’s definitely value for 158, which puts him 4lb clear of today’s field. If I’m dissing the Special Tara result, then my saver must be Benefficient.
BEVERLEY There’s a new source for the punter these days: hunting down tipping treats from the Tweets.
One ace tweeter is super-in-form trainer Richard Fahey, who has six runners at both Beverley and Newcastle today, and has had a massive 23 in the frame -12 winners and 11 more placed – in the last two weeks.
But today the tit-bit tweet is from one of his owners, Stephen Humphreys, verbally jumping up and down with the news – two days ago – that Paul Hanagan would ride his horse, Bayan Kasirga (2.35) at Beverley today.
Apart from trainerform you have the additional edge that Bayan Kasirga is drawn seven of 10 at a trip on this course where there is strong bias to high numbers.
It’s not a great race and Bayan Kasirga likes firm ground: he would only have to run up to Ascot form to win this; worth your pound at 9.6 on BETDAQ this morning.
The form figures when fresh of another Fahey runner, High Office (3.35), are 33112 and, for a winner at class-3 level, the handicapper may have made a mistake in dropping him 10lb in the last 10 months.
If you delete his heavy-ground defeat in September, High Office’s ratings fall has come from class-2 defeats and this race is a class 4.
Fennell Bay has also been dropped in grade and he, too, is down a few pounds in the ratings. Dutch.
Saint Thomas (4.05) likes Beverley – three course wins – and likes firm ground. He’s got both today and, although he beat Ailsa Craig, this morning’s favourite, out of sight over CD last summer, they are roughly the same price in BETDAQ offers: 5.5.
LINGFIELD You wouldn’t bet an old maiden like Metropolis (5.25) unless his trainer had discovered that he works much better on a man-made surface and that that trainer is a stunning 4-6 in his raids on England. He has. He is. I took a bit of 18.5.
NEWCASTLE Even allowing for an unhelpful draw, Solar Spirit (6.20) is too big at offers of 15.5 on BETDAQ this morning. Three times a winner last season, he’s had a run back and the Tracy Waggott stable has had five winners from its last nine starters.
BET 2.3pts win BAYAN KASIRGA (2.35 Beverley)
BET 6.5pts win HIGH OFFICE and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) FENNELL BAY (3.35 Beverley)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) SAINT THOMAS (4.05 Beverley)
BET 1.1pts win and place METROPOLIS (5.25 Lingfield)
BET 1.3pts win and place SOLAR SPIRIT (6.20 Newcastle)
WIN-30 JACKPOT 3.4pts win BAILY GREEN and 0.75pts win (stakes saver) BENEFFICIENT (6.40 Punchestown)
DAQMAN TARGETS: Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, except his ‘jackpot’, when the target is 30. All stakes are covered by just one winner.
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