A crucial battle in the AFC West takes place on Monday night as the Denver Broncos take on the San Diego Chargers (BBC Red Button, 1.25am, Tuesday).
The Broncos were beaten handily by New England in their last outing, despite a late rally, while the Chargers are coming in here off a tough loss in New Orleans.
They have alternated wins and losses in their last four meetings in Colorado, with Denver eking out a 16-13 victory last November.
This, of course, is a much different Denver team to the one the Chargers faced last year. Peyton Manning’s arrival has allowed the Broncos to be more diverse and he has a knack of being able to bring his team back from a deficit.
San Diego are a solid outfit – picked as one of my Super Bowl outsiders at the start of the season – and have a habit of surging late in the season. They also have an unhappy knack of finding it all too much in close games, as they showed in New Orleans last week.
What is also worrying is the injury to Chargers influential left tackle Jared Gaither, who is questionable with a groin injury. If missing, it might cause a major problem trying to ward off the Denver pass rush.
Equally, Denver’s linebacking corps remains depleted, with Wesley Woodyard questionable with a neck injury, Keith Brooking likely to be sidelined following a concussion and D.J. Williams suspended for the first six games of the season.
The good news for Manning is that receiver Demaryius Thomas, who has been struggling with a hp injury, should be fit to start.
Denver are 1-point underdogs on the BETDAQ handicap and layers are obviously expecting a few points as Manning and San Diego counterpart Philip Rivers air the ball out, as the points total line is set at 48.5.
It is a tough game to call. The biggest questions for me surround the Chargers. Can they beat good teams the way they beat bad teams?
I’m not convinced they can. Denver are not an elite team – they are still a work in progress, as their run defence showed when getting bulldozed by the Patriots last week.
But their secondary is still decent and the Chargers, with Ryan Matthews, do not have a powerful ground game. In fact, I think it will be the Denver defence that ultimately decides this game.
If Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter can keep the lid on Malcolm Floyd (arguable) and Robert Meacham (more likely) and jam those receivers near the line of scrimmage, then Rivers could be under constant pressure from the likes of Von Miller.
Rivers has a point to prove this year. He believes he should be among the category of ‘elite’ quarterbacks, but all too often he has the tendency to try and do too much and force the issue.
In my book, he is an elite passer and while you need to show emotion to lead effectively, but if the game gets away from him and he’s forced to play catch-up, he can be seen as being too intense and make bad decisions.
This edition of the Musical Interlude is dedicated to Rivers and all elite quarterbacks everywhere (excluding Ben Roethlisberger, naturally).
It has not been the best start for Denver, their 2-3 record is a product of the teams they have faced; their losses coming at the hands of Super Bowl favourite Houston, NFC leading lights Atlanta and AFC powerhouse New England. A 3-3 record, if they win here, should be enough of a launchpad to get them in the playoffs argument in January.
The Chargers have beaten the likes of Tennessee and Kansas City on their way to a 3-2 record, but were blown out by Atlanta (conversely, the Broncos lost to the Falcons by a touchdown).
But their degree of difficulty in the schedule is not too dissimilar from Denver’s over the next few weeks, so victory here and a two-game lead over their AFC West rivals would place them as firm favourites for the division.
Denver have a better running game, which also adds to the thought that the layers might have got this handicap line round the wrong way.
I do wonder if Manning is labouring. He didn’t appear to set his feet well and was agitated in the pocket against New England, and appeared to be labouring as the game wore on, despite instigating something of a comeback.
If he relies on the ground game more, providing that they can avoid the fumbles that plagued them at crucial times last week, the visitors have a great chance of evening up their win and loss columns.
Incidentally, if the Broncos do fumble, it is worth noting that the Broncos have failed to recover at least 50 percent of their own fumbles every year since 2008, but recovered at least 50 percent of them – and as many as 75 percent (2003) – for 11 consecutive seasons from 1997-2007.
Turnovers lose games – and they also win them. Making matters worse is the defence’s inability to recover opposing fumbles; the Broncos have grabbed just two of six this season. It is something that head coach John Fox will undoubtedly be working upon.
Suggestions:
Back – Denver +1
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Twitter: @simonmilham
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