New England Patriots at St Louis Rams (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 5pm)
The skies will be as grey as Bill Belichick’s hoodie at on Sunday as the Patriots attempt to become the first team to win a second NFL regular-season game in London’s Wembley Stadium.
The Patriots are 7-point BETDAQ handicap favourites over the St Louis Rams, as they aim to follow up their 35-7 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at this historic venue three years ago.
This game is a lot more intriguing than it was when it was announced, thanks to the contrasting fortunes of both defences. The Patriots still don’t appear to have sorted out their pass defence, yet the Rams have looked solid since head coach Jeff Fisher’s arrival.
For all that, experience could count for a lot. The Rams are a young outfit, playing only their third game outside of a dome this season (and they lost the other two, 23-6 at Chicago and 17-14 at Miami). The Patriots have happy memories of their last business trip and are used to the routine.
Only late touchdowns in the Rams’ last two games against Miami and Green Bay (lost 30-20 last Sunday) have made the final scores respectable and they have yet to face such a high-paced attack.
Many see the Rams as having an excellent pass defence. It is no disgrace to be blown away by Bears’ QB Jay Cutler and Packers counterpart Aaron Rodgers. Washington’s Robert Griffin III also led the Redskins to 28 points against the Rams. Detroit and Matt Stafford hung 27 points on them.
Good defensive showings against Seattle, Arizona and Miami have lulled us into a false sense of security. That trio do not yet possess a passer in the calibre of Tom Brady, whom they face on Sunday. This inexperienced group have yet to slow down an elite passer and those problems may continue at Wembley.
The Rams’ offensive line is still in flux, with Joe Barksdale looking a little lost last Sunday when replacing injured Wayne Hunter at left tackle and Shelley Smith doing a better job than expected filling in for the out-of-his-depth Quinn Ojinnaka, who was unsurprisingly released on Monday after starting the previous four games at left guard.
While New England have been poor defensively – they don’t have a consistent pass rush, their cornerbacks are moderate and they can’t cover one-on-one – a relentless attack, which has complied over 350 yards in 16 straight games, has masked the deficiencies and it is more diverse than the Rams’, who are bereft of a legitimate No1 receiver.
I see a weakness on the right side of the Rams’ defensive line and the Patriots have a good match-up with left tackle Nate Solder currently playing at Pro Bowl level.
The Patriots’ offensive line does miss Brian Waters, however, and Matt Light’s veteran leadership has also been tough to replace. Brady still doesn’t fully trust that line to protect him and he’s been seeing ghosts at times, imagining non-existent linebackers, and sometimes rushing his throws. But he’s still the player he always was – elite.
The Patriots’ receiving corps could do with some speed, since Brandon Lloyd is not about to stretch any defence, and another big problem has been the health of their two tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, who are the focus for defenders.
Wes Welker is being a good boy scout again after his summer squabbles over a new contract. Had New England’s passing game been better and not so reliant on Welker, he would have been traded by now. As it is, I see him being released at the end of the season – or perhaps traded to a team with a need, someone like St Louis perhaps?
And with Belichick’s history of taking older running backs and getting plenty of tread out of old tyres, how about a trade for Rams’ Steven Jackson, who is likely to want – and deserves – to play on a winning team at least once in his career? It’s food for thought.
But as for Sunday’s clash, I see Rams having many more problems than the Patriots, but it could be the running game that sets up the pass, and while I wouldn’t be rushing pile on, a double-digit win for Belichick’s men looks the likeliest outcome.
I am led to believe that Train are half-time entertainment. Personally, I’m more of an Underground train fan. So our very own musical interlude comes from a great British band – The Jam.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 9.25pm)
Will the schizophrenic Cowboys finally start getting their act together? You wouldn’t bank on it. That’s why backing Dallas is perhaps one of the better bets on Sunday.
There are grounds for believing the Cowboys can cover the handicap at home for the first time this season and do the double over the Super Bowl champions, who hold a 5-2 record.
At 3-3 they need to win, particularly with two tough road games at Atlanta and Philadelphia up next. Win two of their next three and they will be in great shape to make a run at the playoffs, as they then have five of their next six at home. If you fancy them to win the NFC East division, now would be the time to back them – they are currently trading at around 3.95 at BETDAQ.
Their defensive problems appear to have been solved, but the loss of middle linebacker Sean Lee, their leading tackler, means that players like DeMarcus Ware will have to step up and put pressure on Eli Manning, who has been sacked just five times this season. Dallas is third against the pass, allowing 187.3 yards per game and the Giants can’t seem to get a consistent ground game going. Conversely, the Cowboys are seventh in passing yards (277.2), while New York are 21st in pass defence (253.3).
Unlike many, I don’t see centre Phil Costa’s injury as particularly significant and believe that Ryan Cook is a more than adequate replacement – perhaps even an upgrade.
The Giants, despite this long rivalry, have never beaten the Cowboys on four consecutive occasions in Dallas – and having won on their last three visits, they will have to buck a trend.
Either way, Manning could be in for a long day and the hosts should win. Somehow.
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
New Orleans have shown some spark in the last couple of weeks, but they could find themselves lit up by Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the late game.
The BETDAQ handicap line gives the Saints a 6-point start.
Interim head coach Joe Vitt, suspended by the NFL for the first six games over the (bogus) bounty investigation, replaces interim-interim head coach Aaron Cromer. But Vitt might wish for at least one more game away, as the Saints’ defence tries to cope with a rested Broncos team, who had a bye following their incredible comeback from 24-0 down at half-time in San Diego to win 35-24.
This is all about which defence is able to slow down two quarterbacks who will go down as NFL legends.
The feeling is the Broncos are better equipped to cope with Drew Brees than the Saints are to deal with Manning. The 2,793 yards New Orleans has allowed so far is the most in NFL history in the first six games of a season. Just the sort of confidence booster you need when facing Manning.
But the handicap might be a bit too big. Take the points and hope Brees can continue to be a one-man army.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Bring your big-boy pads, as the Miami Dolphins, who are rested after their bye week, head to New York looking to avenge a 23-20 overtime defeat by the Jets in Week 3.
The Dolphins match up well against the Jets, particularly in the trenches, and the Jets know they were very fortunate to beat the Dolphins in Miami, as Dan Carpenter missed two crucial field goals.
The Jets have recorded just 10 sacks in seven games this season and they have the third-worst run defence in the NFL, giving up 4.7 yards per carry. This sounds like good news for Miami running back Reggie Bush.
It is clear that the Jets have missed Darrelle Revis; they are 1-3 since their influential cornerback was injured, but they are still a better defensive unit that their stats indicate and should they lose here, they will drop to 3-5, while the Dolphins would go to 4-3 – and if that is the case, with Miami’s schedule not looking too taxing, their current odds to win the AFC East title of around 10.2 with BETDAQ, will start to look very big indeed.
However, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is still a rookie on the road and the Dolphins simply are not good enough at this juncture to overcome too many mistakes. If the Dolphins can be relied upon to do one thing consistently, it is their ability to find a way to mess things up.
Take the Jets eke out another improbable win and cover the 2.5-point BETDAQ handicap.
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
The oddest handicap line of the week sees the San Diego Chargers as 1-point favourites over a Cleveland team who really should be heavier underdogs.
The Chargers have had two weeks to stew over their meltdown against the Broncos, while the Browns continued to find new and interesting ways to lose, when falling in Indianapolis last week.
Philip Rivers v Brandon Weeden = no contest. It really should be that simple.
Suggestions:
Back – Dallas +1
Back – New England -7
Back – New England/St Louis Under 47 total points
Back – New Orleans +6
Lay – Miami +1
Lay – Cleveland +1
Back – Washington +5
Back – Philadelphia – Moneyline
Lay – Tennessee -3.5
Back – Detroit – Moneyline
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Twitter: @simonmilham
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