New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (BBC Red Button, Tuesday, 1.20am)
These days, as far as prime time games go, this NFC East clash is more heavyweight than a bun fight between Adele and Rosanne Barr, and hotter than being locked in a sauna between Mrs Tom Brady and Mrs Ryan Tannehill. Yet weighing it up has been more agonising than an Ndamukong Suh boot to the groin.
We could easily end up with ‘Atlanta airport’ (egg on our faces) as this could go either way… according to layers, at least.
For it’s a mere 1-point BETDAQ handicap that the Washington Redskins are asked to concede.
Washington (5-6) are two games behind the Giants (7-4) and are 2-1 against division opponents (the G-men are 2-2). For them it is vital to knock off the Super Bowl champions, who are coming off a thoroughly convincing 38-10 victory over Green Bay.
The Giants’ running game has verged between sporadic and flatlining all season. This has not been helped by the broken leg suffered by Andre Brown and it will be left to Ahmad Bradshaw to carry the load. The question is, can he? A nagging foot injury has limited him this season and he has to take it easy during the early part of each week.
David Wilson is not a name known to too many, but he should see plenty of carries against a Washington run defence that has been solid this season. Opponents have averaged 4.1 yards per attempt and the Redskins have allowed just seven rushing touchdowns.
Former Virginia Tech running back Wilson, the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, who fumbled on his second pro carry, could share time with former Redskin Ryan Torain and ex-Buccaneer Kregg Lumpkin who were signed this week. He’s not a big back at 5ft 9” but he is a powerful runner who makes quick decisions, and we’re going to see a lot of this 21-year-old in the next few years. But much like Darren Sproles in New Orleans, the issue is whether or not he can he tie up rushers when given blocking assignments and protect Eli Manning when required.
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Fortunately for the Giants, receiver Hakeem Nicks looks fitter and better with every start and his presence frees up Victor Cruz, who should find all sorts of room on curl routes and quick outs. Aside from New England’s Wes Welker, there isn’t a better slot receiver in the league. Dominic Hixon could also be fit, so the Giants appear in relatively good shape.
Offensive tackle David Diehl is unlikely to be ready to play, but there is little drop-off with ex-Redskin Sean Locklear in the line-up, as their pummelling of Aaron Rodgers proved last week.
Rodgers was hit 17 times on 33 drop-backs – the most times he’s been hit all season – but the elusive Robert Griffin III is going to be harder to corral.
Fortunately, strong safety Kenny Phillips’ reaction to playing his first game since a Week 4 MCL (knee) sprain does not seem as bad as first feared, and he may be ready. He is vital to their system, as playing with three safeties tends to allow vital time for more pressure up front, as Rodgers found to his cost. You would expect that RG3 would have better success at avoiding Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Chris Canty – but Phillips’ presence allows them to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.
Chase Blackburn’s presence is equally important. He is the glue that solidifies the run defence and when he’s missing – as he was against Pittsburgh – it shows.
Washington, who have extra time to prepare after gaining a rare win in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, still do not appear to have ironed out their defensive frailties and if Manning is on his game, the Giants can roll to an easier-than-it-will-look victory.
This is a pivotal game for Washington and, indeed, their head coach Mike Shanahan.
A win here could propel them towards an unlikely division title with potentially winnable games at home to Baltimore (who may have wrapped up their division), at Cleveland (who are perennially rebuilding), at Philadelphia (who joined the NFL express checkout line weeks ago) and at home to Dallas.
But unless the Giants’ defence gives up chucks of yardage on the ground, it is hard to see Kyle Shanahan coming up with a gameplan to beat them. The incentive is there but RG3 could be taking one too many hits and if he goes down, there isn’t much hope left.
They will, however, put everything on the line, so it could develop into a shoot-out and while the BETDAQ points total sits at a lofty-looking 51, this might be one occasion where the layers’ optimism is trumped.
Suggestions:
Over 51 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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