ONE WINNER WILL SEE YOU THROUGH: Daqman backs three horses today, with his stakes so arranged that he makes a profit if just one of them wins. A Plumpton plan worth following, with all three races described by him as ‘Daq Value.’
TOMORROW: Daqman takes out his slide-rule and measures the real chances at Cheltenham of the so-called stars who have emerged in the last week.
WEDNESDAY: He dissects four Betdaq-sponsored races at Kempton and has one up his sleeve for the jumps at Hereford.
I put up Willie Mullins for Fairyhouse yesterday; then proceeded to knock him down again. Many punters will be familiar with this occasional affliction of âbeating yourselfâ. It usually happens to me when the racing is unfamiliar and I canât âexpectâ the results.
In this case, I blame âworking backwards.â When a specialist trainer, or a particularly strong horse, stands out on a card, you tend to work round him.
In fact, you should start with a study of the form as the main ingredient and only then add the accompanying information and dress your analysis with the seasoning of experience.
Keeping to a routine, and that one in particular, gives you the advantage of âinsightâ and implicit understanding of a race because, when on a known road, the subconscious remembers things you have forgotten on the surface.
If you drive a car regularly from A to B, your âauto pilotâ takes over; you canât even remember driving to B; it âjust happens,â even to the extent that sometimes you âwake upâ at the end of the drive and wonder how you got there.
I used to worry about it, until I met a psychologist who worked in that field. He told me it was much better for me to relax and rely on my âauto pilotâ than to try to observe everything as I went along; I would âinstinctivelyâ respond to danger, if I let my automatic mind take over.
In police-driver training, which I undertook as a journalist some years ago, you have to âtalkâ yourself round the streets, ceaselessly commenting on every situation (âapproaching T-junction; pedestrian to my right; stationary vehicle too close to junction, blah-blahâ). Itâs very hard much like hard work! The way NOT to drive.
But the idea of it is that it gets you into an observation routine, honing and sharpening the auto-pilot so that, when the police driver is speeding to tackle a real situation, he has âinstinctiveâ understanding, âexpectationâ of what could lie ahead and what to do about it.
In racing, my favourite professional punter, Murray Dwyer, who works on the card purely as a mathematician, and uses algorithms to produce his âpricing upâ (the computer even places the bets for him) has said more than once that he is envious of the âinstinctiveâ approach.
Itâs no secret that I am at my best with quality racing, a Saturday man and a man for the big meetings (check it out in the Archives). Itâs not easy to be âinstinctiveâ at plumptious Plumpton or workaday Wolverhampton. Nor is it easy to maintain that regularized study of the cards at such meetings.
The reason, as Iâve said a million times (new readers start here) is that poor-quality horses donât keep their form; donât often improve; donât run the same race twice.
Or as another famous professional, Paul Major, used to say (hope new readers are still with me): âDonât bet below C level!â This is now called class 3 and, down there among the deadwood, not a lot is stirring..
Unless Barney Curley is having a punt or unless Sir Mark Prescott has cut loose with one of his sequence horses, knowing that he can build a decent bank by beating all that dross over and over again.
There are two class-3 races at Plumpton today, though one of them is dangerous because itâs a beginnersâ chase. Anyone who saw the Drinmore yesterday can tell you three things right away, though heâs not sure which of them apply to that race.
Novices can suddenly improve out of all recognition; a good jockey can take a race of novice horses by the scruff of the neck and impose his will on it; some young chasers learning the trade take a dislike to it and âgo backwards.â
As far as we can tell from the form for this Plumpton novice chase (1.10), Ballylifen doesnât like winning, or he lacks âfinishâ, or both; heâs been placed six times out of eight. What we donât know is how he will react to this first run over fences.
Escortâmen is the only one in the race to have tried them but didnât like them an awful lot last season and has had a hurdles run back to give him fitness and confidence. You wouldnât think he was by the same sire as Sir Des Champs!
Hawkes Point and Kuilsriver both raced in Graded events over hurdles but found their level in class 3, whereas Pateese has class-2 form. Off The Ground and Opening Batsmen failed to go on beyond the novice stage though, as an Oscar, Opening Batsman is likely to take to fences.
But my vote goes to Hawkes Point: a full brother to Alfie Sherrin, from the family of Beau Ranger, he wins when fresh. Two things put me off having a decent bet: firstly itâs a novice chase, of course; secondly, trainer Paul Nicholls â the Willie Mullins of England â has a modest record at Plumpton.
The maresâ handicap hurdle (1.40) is also class 3. It features Madame Jasmine, the Plumpton course specialist, proverbially as game as a pebble (why are pebbles âgameâ?). The snag with her is that sheâs been hiked in the handicap again and has won only in class 4 and 5.
Mavalenta is dropped in class â and switched back from fences â after running in a higher grade at Aintree and is returning to the level of her Fontwell success off a 6lb lower mark.
However, Bunglasha Lady stands out on form, a class-2 winner, down 3lb on that and with her winning rider that day, A P McCoy, back in the saddle.
This time the snag is that she had to miss the whole of last season; otherwise she is known to win when fresh and will have been âgot upâ (specially prepared) for this race.
I like the trade-paper description of Kayceeâs âstrike rateâ of 0-23 as âfrustratingâ (3.10 Plumpton). Frustratingâs not the word, and 0-23 isnât a strike rate, since thereâs been no strike!
Itâs an awful race of neâer-do-wells so Iâm tempted to think that Dushy Valley can continue his winning run and land a hat-trick over CD. Heâs a rare bird at this level to be putting wins together, and a rare decent price at offers of 4.0 this morning.
DAQMANâS BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 11pts win HAWKES POINT (1.10 Plumpton)
DAQ VALUE BET: 7.6pts win BUNGLASHA LADY (1.40 Plumpton)
DAQ VALUE BET: 6.6pts win (nap) DUSHY VALLEY (3.10 Plumpton)
* Daqmanâs bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Daq Value today indicates that the list of offers for the race added up to a total probability of 108% or less in each case this morning.
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