The Divisional Round of the playoffs saw two favourites covering the handicap and two underdogs prevailing. The points total went over in all four games. Our selections went 3-1 on the handicaps, 3-1 on the over/under points totals to leave our weekly win/loss/tie tally at 7-1-1 in the last nine weeks. We put the horsemeat in the patty with our Green Bay pick, but hopefully this week we won’t sell you too many quarter-pandas.
Here’s our take on Sunday’s two Conference Championship games:
NFC Championship
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons (Sky Sports HD, 8pm)
BETDAQ handicap: San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Total Points: 49
Weather: Dome (inconsequential)
Our take: At least one No. 1 seed has appeared in 18 of the last 22 Super Bowls, a trend that perhaps spells good news for those who followed one of our trio of pre-season Super Bowl picks, Atlanta, advised at 30.0 (or 29-1 in real money).
We’re not about to desert the NFC’s top seed, even though we advised hedging some of the 21-point profit before the playoffs started and advised backing San Francisco for the title at 7.2. The 49ers, seeded No.2, are currently available at 3.1 (which equates to profit of between 2.1 and 11 points if hedging equal stakes on the remaining three contenders at the current odds).
While we are certain to have at least one of our Super Bowl fancies in the finale in New Orleans on Sunday, February 3, the Falcons get our vote to make it. The percentages say they should be followed, even though they are the 3.5-point dogs, as historically, the No. 1 seed is 14-8 when hosting a No.2 seed in the Conference Championship.
Many will cite the 49ers as vulnerable on the ground, having been run over by Seattle (176 yards in Week 16), and having given up over 145 yards to St Louis, Minnesota and the New York Giants. Even the Green Bay Packers rushed for 106 yards on 16 carries last week.
Some of those games came with something of an asterisk, however. They faced Seattle on a let-down game, having beaten New England on the road. Few were able to restrict Minnesota runner Adrian Peterson this season – there’s no shame in being tortured by one of the best backs to ever play the game.
The anomalies are the Giants and Rams games. San Francisco lost to the Giants after beating the Jets and Bills a combined 79-3 in the previous two weeks. It looked a classic let-down game against a team who invariably have had their number. They played a similarly sloppy game at home to the Rams following a bye week.
So it could be construed that the Niners have a bit of a coaching issue.
Can the Falcons take advantage? There’s no reason to think they can’t. The downfield threat of two elite receivers in Julio Jones and Roddy White, plus tight end Tony Gonzalez in the red zone especially, means that the linebackers and safeties will be susceptible to play action.
You also have to believe that San Francisco will want to test the Falcons’ defensive line with heavy doses of Frank Gore, especially in the first half. The Falcons will be expecting this as the San Francisco coaching staff does not truly trust second-season quarterback Colin Kaepernick – you only have to look at how they limit the number of throws down the middle of the field.
For this reason, perhaps the best bet is to look at fewer points than we saw last week.
What hampers Atlanta is the fitness of pass rusher John Abraham, who has a gimpy ankle. Getting pressure on Kaepernick – who killed Green Bay with his fleet-footedness last week – is paramount. He does make some head-scratching decisions when he attempts to throw downfield but that is to be expected from one with such NFL inexperience.
The Atlanta linebackers did well against Marshawn Lynch last week, although he was slowed by an ankle injury, and the 49ers’ tight ends are excellent blockers, so we should get an early glimpse as to how this game will develop.
If Atlanta’s linebackers can’t shed their blockers, Gore and LaMichael James should rip off good yardage and make manageable down and distance for Kaepernick. If they can force Kaepernick to throw nearer to 40 times than 25, then the Falcons will win this and it will be a sweet victory for defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who was fired as San Francisco head coach in 2008. He selected Alex Smith with the No1 pick in the draft in 2005. Smith, as we know, we replaced by Kaepernick after he suffered a concussion in the 24-24 tie with the Rams in Week 10.
Atlanta have yet to lose to a team with a winning record this term – they are the only team to manage this (3-0 in the regular season with an 85-38 scoring ratio against these so-called ‘quality opponents’) – and they have an 8-1 record at home this season (including last week’s playoff win).
It is also true that they have struggled against good tight ends and mobile quarterbacks, so San Francisco backers will hope Vernon Davis can be a big factor, although the chemistry between him and Kaepernick does not seem as strong as when Smith was pulling the trigger.
Nolan will not take any chances with Davis and he would be wise to employ high-low bracket coverage with a safety and a linebacker, but he knows how well No.1 receiver Michael Crabtree uses his body in traffic – the Packers found him largely unplayable.
The Falcons will be much better used to dealing with option plays than the Packers were last week. Green Bay saw all of two option plays all year before Kaepernick killed them with it. Dom Capers simply either did not have the gameplan in place or the personnel to execute it.
The Falcons are a similarly limited in their tackling ability, so this is obviously a major concern against a receiver in Crabtree who ranked seventh in yards after the catch in the NFL.
This game is all about how well Nolan’s defence copes and whether it can make enough stops – and they are likely to do a much better job of it than Green Bay.
Nolan knows the strengths and weaknesses of many of the San Francisco personnel which is an obvious advantage.
The Falcons’ offensive scheme is relatively simple but knowing it and stopping it are two different things. Their offensive line is a major force – one of the very best in the NFL and certainly a top-10 unit. San Francisco’s defensive line is also one of the most efficient, so it looks a battle of strength on strength.
The 49ers played seven games against teams with a winning record in the regular season, winning four and losing three. In those three losses against quality opponents, they were out-scored 92-29. In their four wins against such opposition, they outscored those opponents 116-69 (the overall tally against quality teams in the regular season is 145-161).
Interestingly, outside of their two victories over Green Bay, the only teams they faced with such talented wide receivers as Atlanta were the New York Giants – who ran over them – and New Orleans, who could not run and promptly lost.
The San Francisco offensive line would appear to have improved, but the read-option is there for a reason, not just to take advantage of Kaeprnick’s running ability. If Atlanta stay disciplined in their run-blocking lanes, put the game on the young quarterback’s shoulders, and make enough stops to get Matt Ryan and Michael Turner on the field, the Falcons have every chance of winning in what should be a raucous and loud dome.
The Niners may have beaten Super Bowl favourites New England in their own back yard a month ago, but they have yet to win three games consecutively this season and that is more to do with coaching than anything else. Atlanta holds a coaching edge and it might pay to back the hosts outright. Many are underestimating the Falcons and underestimating the task the heavily tattooed Kaepernick faces.
As he attempts to live up to the top San Francisco quarterbacks of yore – names like Y.A. Tittle, John Brodie, Joe Montana and Steve Young – and in appreciation of Kaepernick’s ink, here’s this week’s Musical Interlude.
It comes from the greatest band of the Eighties (the 49ers’ heyday); the brilliant Lloyd Cole & The Commotions, with arguably their greatest tune…
AFC Championship
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (Sky Sports HD, 11.30pm)
BETDAQ handicap: New England Patriots -9.5
Total Points: 51
Weather: 14/43f Mostly Clear
Our take: This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game in which the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl with a 23-20 win.
Four of their last six meetings have been settled by a field goal margin or less and Ravens’ fans will be long haunted by last season’s clash. Kicker Billy Cundiff’s 32-yard field-goal attempt, with seconds remaining, should have sent the game into overtime. As it was, he shanked the kick badly left of the uprights and Gillette Stadium erupted.
Cundiff has not been the same player since. He was released by Baltimore, released by Washington and, on Friday, was once again released by San Francisco.
Will Baltimore’s rookie kicker Justin Tucker be able to handle the pressure if it is another close game? Tucker connected on 30 of 33 field goals in the regular season, the second-best mark by a rookie kicker in NFL history. He kicked a 27-yard game-winner as time expired as the Ravens avenged their defeat by the Patriots with a 31-30 win in September. He also kicked another game winner in overtime to defeat San Diego 16-13 and last weekend, in the AFC Divisional Playoff, Tucker’s 47-yard field-goal in the second overtime period saw the Ravens defeat Denver 38-35 in frosty Colorado.
Tucker’s luck seems to be better than Cundiff’s. He’s a kicker who can handle pressure.
The Ravens may have the look of being this season’s ‘team of destiny’ but that trip to Denver last week was a tough one. The length of game, the altitude, the energy-sapping emotion of beating Peyton Manning’s team – who were near double-digit favourites – may take a heavy toll.
Let’s not forget, the Ravens did not have the luxury of a second bye week and they have played 11 straight weeks following their Week 8 bye. They are running on adrenaline and fumes.
This is going to play to one of New England’s biggest strengths: a fast-paced no-huddle attack, which Bill Belichick implemented with help from former Oregon and now Philadelphia Eagles’ head coach Chip Kelly.
The Patriots have had great success all season with the strategy and last week against Houston, defenders were having problems lining up in the correct positions. You can bet that Tom Brady will attempt to keep the rampaging Baltimore front four and their blitzing linebackers on the back foot by using the up-tempo strategy.
But if the passing attack doesn’t get Baltimore, the running game might; Stevan Ridley has really found a groove.
This is an entirely different Patriots team to the one the Ravens faced in September. They can be more aggressive than they were defensively in the first meeting, thanks to the signing of cornerback Aqib Talib – which has allowed last year’s starting cornerbacks, Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington, to move respectively to safety and in the slot, where they are far more comfortable.
Baltimore’s receivers pose an interesting problem for the Patriots’ defence with Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith big targets to defend for 5ft 10” rookie cornerback Alfonzo Dennard and the Patriots’ defence as a whole is still a work in progress.
The Ravens were at their best in the early part of the season, but age is a factor for many in their defence, which will also have to find a way of stopping a running game that has started to compliment what Brady and receivers Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and tight end Aaron Hernandez do so well.
The loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski should not be too much of a factor. Michael Hoomanawanui is not a bad run blocking and pass protection replacement and the Patriots did manage to put up 42 points against Houston and 34 against San Francisco without Gronk.
You also have to think that Brady will try and take advantage of Ray Lewis, who has been good in run coverage over the past two weeks, but has been found wanting in pass coverage since his return from torn triceps. Dannell Ellerbe is a good pass rusher, but not so good in pass coverage, so look for a more pass-heavy offensive gameplan from the Patriots.
We should envisage Brady seeking his running backs coming out of the backfield and he will certainly take advantage with Hernandez, who is a matchup nightmare for the Ravens.
Baltimore went 3-4 against quality teams, while the Patriots went 3-3 and if the Patriots beat the Ravens, clubs who defeated the same opponent in the previous year’s AFC Championship game will improve to 6-1 all-time, while if the Ravens defeat the Patriots, it will mark the 11th time in 16 tries that a team won the AFC Championship game against a team it defeated in the regular season.
Another interesting trend: The Patriots’ home playoff record of 14-3 is the highest winning percentage in history, while the Ravens’ 8-5 road record in the playoffs is similarly the best in history.
So who will win? Most pundits and many fans see this as a close game. Why wouldn’t they? While the Patriots do give up chunks of yardage and Joe Flacco should find success with the deep ball on occasion, this simply looks a game too far for the gutsy but ultimately weary Ravens.
If New England get that running game going, it will help Brady execute that up-tempo gameplan and this could get away from Baltimore.
The layers are expecting the Patriots to win by double digits, while the pundits think a field goal will settle it. The layers are not often wrong – certainly and it is a stretch to see the Ravens catching lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row.
I’m looking at a score in the region of around 38-24 and for plenty of schmaltzy images of Ray Lewis trudging off the field for the last time.
Suggestions:
Atlanta +3.5
New England -9.5
San Francisco/Atlanta Under 49 points
Baltimore/New England Over 51 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Divisional Round: 6-2
Wild Card Weekend: 5-3
Week 17: 7-6
Week 16: 7-5
Week 15: 8-7
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
