Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions (Sky Sports HD, 5pm)
The first American Thanksgiving is generally believed to have been in Plymouth Colony in mid-October of 1681, when William Bradford and the Pilgrims gathered with local Indians to give thanks for survival and the first harvest – roughly around the same time as Tim Tebow was thought of as a legitimate NFL quarterback.
Many feel survival could be the issue for Detroit in the first of tonight’s televised triple-header.
When one-loss Houston enter Ford Field, most are expecting the traditional Thanksgiving Day carve-up of the Detroit Lions. And there’s plenty to suggest that the 2012 edition of the Lions will be among a rafter of turkeys getting a stuffing with all the trimmings.
While they were unfortunate not to cover a 3.5-point handicap on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers (was there really a need for Mason Crosby to kick a field goal with just 19 seconds to go to pad the lead to 24-20, covering the handicap by the bare minimum?) the Lions showed very little offensively against an already weak defence further weakened by injuries.
Matt Stafford missed several opportunities. Receivers were running free in open lanes and he was not connecting with an unhappy regularity. He won’t be afforded the same luxury against a Houston defence that was embarrassed by Jacksonville’s pop-gun attack on Sunday.
Detroit, who have hosted Thanksgiving Day games since 1934, have lost their last eight (and nine of the last 11) played on this traditional feast day. It is their longest such losing streak on Thanksgiving since they dropped five in a row after World War II.
Houston, current Super Bowl favourites at BETDAQ, boast a 9-1 record, and are in a strong position to secure homefield advantage in the playoffs.
Detroit were 7-3 coming into last year’s holiday game – which they lost 27-15 to the Packers – but they are a last place 4-6 in the NFC North division this time round, as they look to build on their 33-37-2 all-time Thanksgiving Day record.
There’s a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL, but somehow every time Detroit steps on that line, they fall through a crevasse. Sunday’s narrow loss would appear to all but end their season.
Injuries, particularly to their secondary, have the Lions regularly scanning the waiver wires and there is usually a drop-off in talent between the starters and back-ups.
The main worry for Detroit, aside from inconsistency, is their inability to complete third-down situations – and their indiscipline; they lead the NFL in off-sides penalties (a major issue for the highly-touted defensive front seven).
It is interesting to see the impact the loss of linebacker Brian Cushing has had on Houston. During their first game without Cushing – whom coordinator Wade Phillips built this defence around – the Texans lost 42-24 in Week 6 to the Green Bay Packers. Since then, they crushed Baltimore (43-13), but have subsequently had three close victories over Buffalo (21-9), Chicago (13-6) and Jacksonville (43-37 OT).
It seems that the betting public are still non-believers in the Texans, since they are asked to overcome a mere 3-point BETDAQ handicap. This line is a worry for bettors, since the Texans should be around 5.5-point jollies, particularly since running back Arian Foster goes up against a defence that is allowing an average of 4.3 yards per run (ranking the Lions a modest 22nd in the NFL). The run will set up the pass, as the red-zone run defence has only conceded three touchdowns all season.
If the Lions are to win it will be via Stafford’s arm, as Houston are still the only team not to allow a rushing touchdown.
This handicap line is awkward. It may not be a carve-up, but the weight of money should be with Houston… which usually means we go against the grain and hope. Pass the cranberry sauce, please. Hmmmm Cranberries. That reminds us. Time for a rather sumptuous Musical Interlude…
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (Sky Sports HD, 8.30pm)
Forty-nine years ago to the day, Washington’s finest was murdered at Dealey Plaza on Elm Street. The assassination of President John. F. Kennedy did not prevent the NFL from playing its normal schedule of games just two days later.
The Washington Redskins have also had a raw deal in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day: Six games, six defeats since they first played each other on Turkey Day 1968. Only one of those Redskins’ defeats has been by fewer than seven points (a 24-23 squeaker in 1974).
The Cowboys are asked to give up 3.5-points on the BETDAQ handicap and they are expected to cover this spread for the first time at home this season. They failed to cover for the fourth time at home this term on Sunday against Cleveland as nine-point BETDAQ handicap favourites, despite winning 23-20 in overtime.
Dallas are always over-bet by punters, which makes them the darlings of Vegas. In reality, they are a very average, poorly-coached team with a quarterback prone to tossing interceptions at inopportune moments; Tony Romo has lobbed 10 this season – but none in the last three games. Just when you think the sun is shining and you’ve figured them out, they proceed to throw more shade than a solar eclipse.
But the Cowboys should be able to take advantage of Washington’s major defensive weakness (a ropey secondary), while their solid pass defence should neutralise the potent threat from Redskins’ quarterback Robert Griffin III.
Having watched a little film of RG3, the best way to befuddle the rookie appears to be selective application of blitz packages, concentrating instead on containment downfield. While the Cowboys’ linebackers and corners are not underrated, they are not heralded as much as they perhaps should be. They certainly won’t fail to have cornerbacks covering Aldrick Robinson on 49-yard touchdown passes as Philadelphia did last Sunday.
The Redskins, for all the good work in the 31-6 win over the Eagles, still committed 13 penalties against a team that had long since joined the express checkout for the year and are woefully one-dimensional. There isn’t a lot that is particularly special about the Redskins, save for Brandon Meriweather – whose return sparked a solid defensive effort – and Griffin’s ability to escape pressure with his legs. Meriweather seldom has back-to-back impressive games and the Redskins’ running game numbers are grossly over-inflated thanks to Griffin, whose passing stats are also padded with too many short passes.
And while that may be a slight exaggeration of their merits – they are an up-and-coming team battling a slew of injuries to high-calibre players – they simply have not been able to close out close games, losing five of six by a one-score margin.
Dallas are no great shakes, but they are still in contention in the NFC east – a win will put them half a game behind the New York Giants, who play Green Bay on November 25. Expect plenty of delayed handoffs in the running game and three-wide receiver sets in the passing game as Dallas do enough to cover.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (Sky Sports HD)
Pantomime villain against lovable mischief-maker. Monosyllabic Sith Lord against prognosticating picador. It could only be Bill Belichik and Rex Ryan. No two coaches polarise opinion like this pair.
The Patriots and Jets have a healthy disregard for each other, neither is playing at their best and both have glaring deficiencies – the Jets have a makeweight offense and a quarterback controversy, while the addition of cornerback Aqib Talib to Patriots’ secondary looks a good move on paper, in reality he’s little more than the boy with his thumb in a dyke.
The BETDAQ handicap has the Patriots as 5.5-point favourites and they should cover it with ease if their 59-24 victory over the Indianapolis Colts is taken at face value.
However, they have struggled against good defences, losing to Arizona, Baltimore and Seattle, and squeaking past the Jets in overtime at home.
This is the first of two road games against division rivals and a win against either would almost certainly lock up the AFC East. But questions still remain over our pre-season Super Bowl pick. They still appear to have the same issues they did last season – namely the lack of pass rush and suspect secondary – and that didn’t seem to bother them as they were one play away from winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Yet the loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski with a broken arm is sure to be felt. The adjustments they make will be interesting and the guess is that Ryan will play his linebackers tighter to the line of scrimmage and blitz Tom Brady with regularity.
Without Gronkowski, whose blocking is as important to the Patriots as his pass-catching ability, they do not have the same ability to stretch the field. It is an interesting problem to overcome and it will be fascinating to see how Belichick and Brady, with their metronomic discipline, attempt to overcome it – although spreading the defence out with three-receiver sets or max-protecting Brady are two options.
The issues with the Jets are well documented. Mark Sanchez is not the franchise quarterback they hoped he would be and it appears that they will move on at the end of the season. The quarterback controversy is perhaps overblown, as there are few in the Jets’ locker room convinced that Tim Tebow is the long-term answer. It seems likely that there will be a clear-out if they fail to reach the playoffs, which effectively start now for Gang Green.
You have to feel a little sorry for Sanchez. His receiving corps was limited even before top target Santonio Holmes was lost for the season. And losing cornerback Darrelle Revis on the other side of the ball would hurt any team’s ability to cover receivers.
As for this game, the line is where it should be and while you would invariably take Brady over Sanchez, everything is on the line for Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano. The Jets have shown that they match up well with the Patriots and they do have the ability to keep this close, but a lot depends on how they start the game. Their confidence is flaky, despite beating St Louis on the road. But with New England losing defensive end Chandler Jones and, perhaps more importantly, left guard Logan Mankins (right guard Dan Connolly is also struggling with a back injury), there is perhaps not a better time to stick it to the Patriots.
This is more a watching brief, but it is highly possible the Patriots could let down and the Jets could cause a minor shock.
Suggestions:
Detroit +3
Detroit/Houston over 49 points in total
Dallas -3.5
New York Jets +5.5
New York Jets/New England under 49 points in total
And don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s view on the game at betdaqnfl.com.
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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