Before we get into Thursday night’s NFL action between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders, let’s reflect on some Week 13 talking points…
Peyton Manning’s arm strength: The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC– as long as Tom Brady is around – will always go through New England. And if you are going to beat the Patriots, you will have to attack their weakness. Ignore the stats and see what your eyes tell you: They can be beaten deep.
The Miami Dolphins had several chances to beat the Patriots and keep their fading playoff hopes alive on Sunday, but failed to do it, in large part due to Ryan Tannehill’s inability to connect with wide-open receivers (primarily Brian Hartline) who had a jump on their defensive backs. They came close and one connection would have given them a momentum swing which might have been enough.
This brings us to Peyton Manning, who was decidedly chippy when asked by a reporter before Sunday’s win over Tampa if his passes were a bit more wobbly and less frequently resemble the tight spirals of his Colts days.
“Is it of concern to you?” Manning said. “Is it something I need to fix to make you feel better? You tell me. I’ll work on it today if it’s bothering you.”
Manning has never had a ‘big’ arm. Accuracy is his forte, but a deep ball is something that the Broncos do appear to lack. Yet what the Broncos do well is spreading out a defence. Manning zipped a few intermediate passes in the flat in an easier-than-it-looked 31-23 win over the Bucs, and the Broncos ripped off chunks of yardage.
It’s that wonderful time of year: Here’s the latest in our series of the Eight Belles of Christmas. Isn’t she lovely? You’re welcome.
The message from these two games is this: The Patriots are vulnerable and while arm-strength questions are legitimate, Manning is on pace to finish with 4,669 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the season. And still on pace to treat those arm-strength questions with contempt.
Cleveland on the rise?: The offensive line is a strength, the defensive line rotation is deep and receiver Greg Little has upped his game. Some fans with nosebleeds following their two-game winning streak (count ‘em) believe the Browns will be a force next season.
But the key to winning in the NFL is having a half-decent quarterback.
I present to you Brandon Weeden. Case dismissed.
Sack race: Who is for the head coaching chop first? I’d be a Ken Whisenhunt backer. Arizona have dropped eight in a row after losing 7-6 at the New York Jets. Their last four games are against Seattle, San Francisco, Detroit and Chicago.
And with things so desperate at the quarterback position, what are the odds that our friend in New York might be courted to spend a little more than 40 days in the desert?
The temptation might be too much for the Arizona Cardinals’ owner to resist.
“Devil: I’ll win in LA, Mr ’bow” is an anagram for William Vernon Bidwill.
Dogs barking: After allegedly a couple of weeks of bad results for Vegas layers, just five of 16 favourites covered the handicap in Week 13 – Atlanta, Buffalo, Houston, Cleveland and Cincinnati – while three games fell on the handicap line: Denver (by 8), Washington (by 1), Green Bay (by 9).
But the days will soon start getting longer for any of those fans whose teams don’t make the playoffs. And since this Christmas Belle is highly likely to be over at my place not yours, why not curl up with a good book, instead?
Having read them, I can highly recommend the following… after the midweek Musical Interlude from Franz Ferdinand.
Badasses: The legend of Snake, Foo, Dr. Death, and John Madden’s Oakland Raiders – Peter Richmond (ISBN 978061834318)
Quite simply one of the best football books you will ever read, even if you are not a not a Raiders fan. It is exceptionally well written and evokes the true essence of the NFL’s most feared team and their love of the physical nature of the game. Nothing comes within a Hail Mary for entertainment.
When Pride Still Mattered: A Life of Vince Lombardi – David Maraniss (ISBN 0684870185)
While we associate Lombardi with the Green Bay Packers, how many remember he also coached Washington? A fascinating biography of the legendary coach who was a symbol to many of leadership, discipline and teamwork in an America that was changing politically and socially. It will enthral you. A five-star read.
Romo: My Life on the Edge – Bill Romonowski (ISBN 006115217X)
Autobiographies often leave you wondering what was omitted. But this is a wart-and-all account of 16 years spent playing in the NFL, along with the demons that plagued him. It’s one of those tomes you want to keep reading and then going back to.
Head Games: Football’s Concussion Crisis from the NFL to the Youth Leagues – Christopher Nowinski (ISBN 1597630136)
The dedication says it all: ‘To the players, young and old, whose lives have been changed forever by head injuries’. Few realise NFL players suffer multiple concussions and new studies reveal that they suffer higher rates of depression, cognitive disorders and Alzheimer’s disease. But the true concussion crisis is in youth sports. It’s an easy read, yet just as informative as some of the more technical publications. Required reading for any coach at any level and it really gets you thinking.
The Blueprint: How the New England Patriots Beat the System to Create the Last Great NFL Superpower – Christopher Price (ISBN 0312384858)
A chronicle of the Patriots’ rise from laughing stock to three Super Bowl titles in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. Price does an amazing job of knitting narrative with examination, offering an unsurpassable insight on the mechanisms of an organisation that have previously remained veiled. It’s riveting – even if you love to hate the Patriots.
The Education of a Coach: David Halbertsam (ISBN 1401308791)
Like The Blueprint, this is a few years old now, but it is still required reading for anyone who wants to know about the pressures and loneliness of being a professional head coach. The subject matter is the greatest coach and arguably the best teacher in the game today, Bill Belichick. It’s a light, enjoyable read and if you want to learn about leadership and some of the nuances of football, this remarkable piece of work is a must.
Every Week A Season: A Journey Inside Big-Time College Football – Brian Curtis (ISBN 0345483375)
Curtis spent the 2003 season visiting nine of the top Universities, gaining unprecedented access to top College Football programmes and his findings make for an engaging read. From the way different coaches keep their teams loose before game time to the down and distance they focus on a Tuesday practise, from how they recognise academic achievement to building character and teaching philosophies, this is jam-packed with insight. If there’s one book on College Football you should read, it’s this one.
Death To The BCS: The Definitive Case Against The Bowl Championship Series – Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jess Passan (ISBN 9781592406869)
This is a subtle as an Ndamukong Suh kick to the groin, but accurately and diligently exposes the corrupt Bowl system in College Football, making a compelling argument for the abolition of the Bowl Championship Series. Provocative, informative and unapologetic, this brilliantly researched work singlehandedly brought (grudging) change to the BCS format. Fantastic for those who want to know more about College Football or for anyone who simply loves the sport.
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (Sky Sports HD, Friday, 1.20am)
This is a matter of trust rather than trying to deduce which team will win. Oakland are very poor and Denver should trounce them. But after cruising to an 18-point lead against Tampa on Sunday, they backed off and allowed the Bucs to pull within eight points – coincidentally or not, the handicap line was eight points.
Denver have a lousy record against the handicap/spread (ATS), having covered just four times in the last 13 meetings with Oakland. And the 9-3 Broncos are 10.5-point BETDAQ favourites in Oakland, who have won just two of their 11 games and who were whacked 37-6 in the return clash on September 30.
The Broncos have let handicap backers down in their last three games, failing to cover spreads of 7.5 (at home to San Diego), 10 (at Kansas City) and 8 (at home to Tampa).
The Raiders have been more consistent, failing to cover in six of their last seven games and they have been blown away by the likes of Tampa (42-32) and New Orleans (38-17) at home, and Baltimore (55-20) and Cincinnati (34-10) on the road in the last five weeks. They fared better against Cleveland’s pop-gun attack on Sunday, but a last-second touchdown at home made the score a more-respectable-than-it -was 20-17 in favour of the Browns, who had not won on the road for almost a thousand years.
Denver may have one eye on a big AFC battle with Baltimore next week, but they have 10 days to recover and with playoff seeding important, having already won the AFC West, the Broncos are unlikely to let up.
The Broncos are a moderate 3-3 ATS on the road this season, but Oakland have covered just once in six home games. At least one trend had to be broken: The Raiders are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games in Week 14, while the Bronocs are 0-4 in their last four Week 14 games.
This is, however, a very different Denver team than in years past, more dynamic and diverse offensively. Having given up 364 yards passing to Cleveland rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, the Raiders face a seemingly impossible task of taking on Peyton Manning, who was 30 of 38 for 338 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in their whipping of the Raiders in Colorado.
With the Raiders allowing eight pass plays of 20 yards or more – making it 58 in 12 games – Manning will not have a better chance to ram some of those ‘arm strength’ questions down his critics’ throats.
This is Weeden we’re talking about. The Raiders made him look like Eli Manning. Their defence is so ineffective that they’d even make Tim Tebow or Mark Sanchez look good.
The Raiders should receive a boost with the return of running back Darren McFadden after missing the last four games with a high ankle sprain, but they could really do with getting defensive tackle Richard Seymour fit. He is questionable with a knee injury after similarly missing the last four games.
The Raiders’ battered secondary took more hits on Sunday. Safeties Matt Giordano and Mike Mitchell and cornerback Phillip Adams all left the game with concussions and are questionable for Thursday night’s game, although Giordano and Mitchell both passed concussions tests and practiced on Tuesday.
As we’ve said many times before, good teams should not be judged on their ability to gain narrow victories over similarly good teams. They are best judged on their ability to put their metaphorical foot on the throats of weaklings and grind them into the dirt.
We also know the problems that road teams have on Thursday nights, going just 3-8.
The X-factor will be emotion. Raiders’ head coach Dennis Allen’s father, Grady Allen, passed away on Monday of Cardiac arrest. He was just 66. Oakland will want to win this for their young coach.
But unless McFadden can get going – unlikely, since Greg Knapp’s zone blocking schemes have yet to play to his strengths – the Denver pass rush should be able to limit what Carson Palmer can do. His main outlet has been tight end Brandon Myers, who had 14 receptions (130 yards) in the loss to Cleveland and another bright spot has been rookie receiver Rod Streater, who has been impressive.
The Raiders have enough weapons to keep things interesting (holding onto the ball was a problem for receivers against Cleveland) but it is their dreadful defence – which is giving up an average of 31.3 points per game – that warrants minimal respect.
Oakland need to clean house. They need two new cornerbacks and should jettison linebacker Rolando McClain, who has been a liability.
The bottom line is that you can’t give up 475 yards to a team like Cleveland and then not expect an elite passer like Peyton Manning not to exploit you. Manning is a classy guy. It’s unlikely he will run up the score.
But Oakland are in disarray and they will do well to keep on the right side of the handicap. Look for a score around 34-17.
Suggestions:
Denver -10.5
Over 48 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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