FIVE LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman last night opposed Sherinn (unplaced 11-8 favourite) at Kempton Park to make it five consecutive successful lays, following Long Run (2nd 11-8 favourite).
ANOTHER WINNING DAY: Daqman finished in front again on the day when he covered part of his nap stake with Ancient Greece (place only, 3rd 5-1).
LINGFIELD There’s a class-3 handicap at Lingfield so the form should be reliable, it’s a sprint and they tend to take turns but the Marco Botti three-year-old seems to on the upgrade. Name of Mezzotint (2.25).
Mezzotint was the ‘moral’ over CD in the summer, beaten a head, giving 3lb to the winner and he then stepped up from that class-4 contest to win a class 2 at Windsor, a race noted for its fast time.
With ton-up-boy Graham Lee aboard, and weighted to close down Swiss Cross on their recent clash here, Bajan Tryst must come into it.
Even Stevens last ran in a Listed on turf but has a high AW mark, albeit partly alleviated by Michael Murphy’s claim.. Valery Borzov is edging down the handicap but I shall make mine Mezzotint.
Mezzotint is ridden by Adam Kirby, who is 100% here for another yard, the Gary Mosse outfit. The partnership tries to coax Moorhouse Lad (2.55) back to form. There have been signs of life recently but I shall again stick with the younger horses.
On form of eight days ago, there’s not much between Moorhouse Lad, Six Wives and Alaskan Bullet and, through Six Wives, Bubbly Ballerina. It’s a question of which one gets the race run his (or her) way, and I don’t like to see them exposed and ‘all of a heap’ with the handicapper.
The trip looks too short for My Son Max and Mother Jones, so I am standing by Havin A Good Time. We know quite a bit about him – he’s won on three AW tracks – but you can’t use the word ‘exposed’ of a three-year-old, particularly one trained by Roger Varian, He is likely to show further improvement at some stage.
For my outsider today, I’ll try Norwegian Reward (12.55), with Silvestre De Sousa an interesting booking. This is a recent import – used to carrying big weights – for a gambling stable: 14.5 as I write. Question of when they let him loose.
WINCANTON Don’t mention the war! The one with the bookmakers, I mean. Whether or not you back Basil Fawlty (1.40), you don’t need to be ‘taken’ by their massive overrounds.
This is a punter-friendly race of only 105% overround on BETDAQ at the time of writing. For those who say ‘ah, yes, but it’s the outsiders whose odds are extended,’ I shall present my evidence next week.
With normal racing, I used to present that evidence regularly with winners at excellent odds from the offers, from marginally to massively in excess of SP.
But the cold blanket has us grubbing in whatever low-class affair can survive. Sorry ‘Winkers’ but I have to include the Silver Buick Chase (2.10) in that. It hardly lives up to class-4 pretensions, never mind the eponymous Silver Buck himself.
But the handicap hurdle (2.40) is tempting to the punter who likes to take on the handicapper, and who doesn’t if the price is right, as it so often is on BETDAQ.
Only four in the field have ever won on a right-handed track, one of them Right Stuff is out like a dog on a raft, not a remote bark for him at 43.0, as I write. Headly’s Bridge is also friendless.
That leaves the consistent (but up in the weights) Quaddick Lake and Kings Flagship, who made all over course and distance on his return, but could be a ‘bounce factor’ risk.
Top Wood, another front-runner, could outgallop Kings Flagship. He made all over a similar trip in the Spring and returned for his (David) pipe-opener over much further at Cheltenham, blowing up for lack of fitness and the trip too far. Should be spot on now.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 1.5pts win and place NORWEGIAN REWARD (12.55 Lingfield)
DAQ VALUE BET 7.5pts win (nap) MEZZOTINT (2.25 Lingfield)
BET 5pts win TOP WOOD (2.40 Wincanton)
BET 3.1pts win HAVIN A GOOD TIME (2.55 Lingfield)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Daq Value bets today are in races between 106 and 110% total probability in the offers at the time of writing.
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