Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (Sky Sports, 5.30pm)
In the ‘Whatever Happened to Matt Flynn’ Bowl, the Detroit Lions will attempt to beat the Packers for only the second time in 14 attempts.
Last season, Aaron Rodgers’ back-up led the Packers to a wild 45-41 meaningless Week 16 win, tossing six touchdowns. Flynn then bolted for a $26million contract in Seattle and was promptly out-played by rookie Russell Wilson in pre-season. That’s an expensive cup of coffee.
Rodgers and the Packers are 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites as they bid to win their ninth game in their last 12 trips to the Motor City.
A loss for Detroit (4-5) would effectively end their season. While they have five of their last seven games at home, they still have to face Houston on Thursday (Thanksgiving), Indianapolis, Atlanta and Chicago, along with the return encounter at Green Bay and a tricky trip to Arizona. Aside from the Cardinals (4-5), all of those opponents currently possess winning records.
Detroit have a lot of talent, yet they have underperformed this season – particularly their defensive line which should be more disruptive than it is.
Their inability to turn possession into points – they rank 2nd in the NFL averaging 406.1 yards per game, but only 13th in points scored with 24 per game – is costing them and their defence, which is shipping an average of 24.7 points per game (23rd in the league) has not yet faced a quarterback who is ranked among the top 15 in terms of yards accumulated.
A win for the Packers (6-3) would keep them at the head of the NFC North with Chicago.
Unlike Detroit, they have faced good quarterbacks such as Drew Brees and Andrew Luck (beating New Orleans and losing to Indianapolis in consecutive weeks – that 30-27 road loss was their only defeat in the last seven games).
The major issue for the Packers is injuries. Right tackle Brian Bulaga is ruled out for the season (hip) (left tackle Marshall Newhouse a weak link), so protecting Rodgers could be a problem. The loss of Clay Matthews (hamstring) hampers an already wafer-thin linebacker corps, and with cornerback Charles Woodson also still missing (collarbone), Lions’ passer Matthew Stafford should see plenty of room in that secondary.
Neither team run the ball well (Detroit rank 24th and Green Bay 23rd) – their backs would have a problem finding a hole in a packet of Polos – so expect an aerial shoot-out between Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. If the Lions are to beat this talented Packers team, now looks a likely time. Take the hosts with the points and hope the Lions’ front seven can cause enough disruption to keep things interesting.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (Sky Sports, 9.25pm)
Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are a nice 6-3 story but they have a way to go before competing in the top echelons of the NFL and they are 9.5-points BETDAQ handicap underdogs for the trip to New England.
The Patriots (6-3) were given all they could handle by the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, but that uncharacteristically sloppy performance should warrant the handicap line being lower than it is, especially since the Colts are coming off a road win at Jacksonville and have had 10 days to prepare.
The Colts have also covered the handicap in their last four trips to New England, but this Colts’ secondary – missing both starting cornerbacks – is very vulnerable and against Tom Brady, that means trouble. The Colts are not getting too much pressure on opposing passers and while the same can be said for New England, the hosts will simply have too much offensive firepower. Luck will not be able to keep pace and the Patriots will cover the handicap for only the second time in five attempts at home this season. This could be an easier victory than many pundits anticipate and looks one of the better bets in what looks a very difficult week for punters.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (C4, Monday, 1.25am)
Pittsburgh are playing a decent team this week, so they will invariably raise their game. But their talisman quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is ruled out with a shoulder injury and it has necessitated a seven-point swing from Sunday night, when the Steelers were 3.5-point favourites. Now the Ravens are 3.5-point BEDAQ handicap favourites.
Byron Leftwich will be attempting to put the Steelers into a first-place tie with the 7-2 Ravens in the AFC North. And Leftwich hasn’t won a game since 2006. In fact, as a starter since then, he’s 0-6. Six starts in six years and while the Ravens’ defence has taken a massive hit with the loss of linebacker Ray Lewis and cornerback Ladarius Webb to name but two, and consequently they have slumped to 27th in the NFL, allowing 390.2 yards per game. Against the pass they are 26th (258.2ypg), so Leftwich should gain some comfort as he bids to knock off some rust.
If the Steelers are to beat the team who thumped Oakland 52-20 last week, then they must hope Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer have a big night. But with defensive tackle Haloti Ngata and cornerback Jimmy Smith likely to return from injury, the Ravens appear to have the capability of limiting the Steelers on the ground as well.
Indeed, there could be a whole Ngata Shakin Goin’ On…
The Steelers still boast the top-ranked pass defence, so the Ravens will probably call upon Ray Rice and the ground game a little more.
The Ravens have a dramatic road/home dichotomy, and are simply not the same team when you take them out of Baltimore. And while Pittsburgh will miss Roethlisberger’s ability to extend drives, the Steelers’ running game has gained more than 140 yards in three of their last four games.
It is perhaps worth noting that the Steelers have covered the handicap on five of six occasions over the past five seasons when Big Ben has been ruled out. The question must be: Is this points swing too big or should we follow the money? I’ll stick with the points and while it goes against the grain, the Steelers may even win this straight up.
Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons
Having lost their first game of the season and released the pressure that came with their long unbeaten run, you would expect the Atlanta Falcons to play with a little less tightness and a more freedom. You may also expect the Arizona Cardinals to suffer a backlash of sorts.
The Cardinals are out to avoid a sixth straight defeat and they badly looked in need of a week off. Rejuvenated, the Cards’ defence might be able to keep this closer than layers anticipate against the hosts who are deemed 9.5-point favourites on the BETDAQ handicap.
Given Arizona’s offensive woes – they are scoring an average of just 16 points per game – it won’t take a lot to beat them, but we have seen many examples this season of superior teams playing down to the level of their lesser-talented opponents. It could be a low-scoring surprise.
New York Jets @ St Louis Rams
The Rams showed plenty of spirit last week as they tied with the San Francisco 49ers on the road while the Jets capitulated in Seattle. This isn’t traditionally good spot for the spiralling Jets, either. They have won just three of 12 games all time against the Rams’ franchise – and only once on the road – their first encounter in Los Angeles way back in 1970.
Many are predicting the frustrated and ornery Jets to bounce back after another week of back-biting within the team, with criticism aimed mainly towards back-up quarterback Tim Tebow.
It seems Rex Ryan has lost this locker room. But the fundamental problem is the Jets offensive line is very ordinary, their receiving corps (without injured Santonio Holmes) wouldn’t be good enough to beat a college defence and GM Mike Tannenbaum would have trouble buying a clue in a clue shop.
With Miami losing to Buffalo on Thursday night, it opens the door a jar for the Jets to make good on Ryan’s promise/guarantee/fairytale of Gang Green making the playoffs.
While this would provide some comedy value, it is very unlikely to happen – especially since the Rams look a fair bet to cause an upset.
Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys are an enigma. Their whimsical season will take another twist this week when they beat the Cleveland Browns and keep their playoff hopes alive. They are 9.5-point favourites to cover the BETDAQ handicap, which is a big number, despite the fact that Cleveland have managed one offensive touchdown in their last two games and Brandon Weeden has completed just 48.4% of his passes in those games.
Dallas should avoid a third consecutive home defeat and while it could be close for a while, leaning on the ground against the 27th-ranked run defence, look for Tony Romo to break it open in the second half.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Philip Rivers against Peyton Manning always sets the pulses racing and this is the last chance for the Chargers to remain in playoff contention. They should give it their all and receive 8.5 points on the BETDAQ handicap, which looks too large, even for Norv Turner to mess up.
The Chargers (4-5) have won five of their last six in Denver (6-3), including the last three, and will be out to avenge a 35-24 home loss to the Broncos on October 15. That was one of the most embarrassing games in Chargers history: leading 24-0 at the break, they capitulated.
If they needed a reminder of their lack of staying power, they got it last week, allowing Tampa Bay to outscore them 17-3 in the final 20 minutes of a 34-24 road loss.
If Denver’s Elvis Dumervil isn’t fit – a scenario that appears likely – Rivers should get more time to pick apart a secondary that always has problems defending tight ends. Sounds like a cue for Antonio Gates.
Suggestions:
Detroit +3.5
New England -9.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
Arizona +9.5
St Louis +3
Dallas -9.5
San Diego +8.5
Arizona/Atlanta under 44 total points
New York/St Louis over 38.5 total points
And don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s view on the game at betdaqnfl.com.
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Week 9: 9-4
Week 10: 6-8
Twitter: @simonmilham
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