Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8, 4-6 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (4-6, 4-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Chicago -5.5 (46)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: RB Doug Martin (questionable– ankle), TE Luke Stocker (questionable– abdominal), CB Alterraun Verner (questionable– hamstring)
Chicago: LB Darryl Sharpton (questionable– hamstring), G Eben Britton (questionable– illness), DE Trevor Scott (questionable– knee), OT Jordan Mills (questionable– ribs), G Matt Slauson (out– pectoral)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win
Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. NFC opponents
Chicago is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
Chicago is 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 4 games overall
The OVER is 7-2 in Chicago’s last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 7-1 in Chicago’s last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs are coming off their best performance of the season, a dominating 20-point win over the Washington Redskins. They’re now 4-0 against the number in their last four road games, and this week they’ll be facing the worst home team in the league:the Chicago Bears, who have covered in just 5 of their last 22 games at Soldier Field.
2. The Tampa defense has played very well of late, limiting their last four opponents to 18.7 points per game. They should be able to build on their success against the mistake-prone Chicago offense, a unit that has produced 23 points or fewer in four consecutive games.
3. The Bears have surrendered more points this season than any team in the NFL, so they should find it difficult to contain a Tampa offense that has emerged in recent weeks due to the re-insertion of quarterback Josh McCown into the staring lineup and the sudden rise of rookie wideout Mike Evans. McCown makes his return to Chicago after succeeding there last year, and he’ll get to face a soft Bears defense that hasn’t been able to stop anybody this season.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. Chicago cruised to a win over division rival Minnesota last week and now they get to host the lowly Bucs, a team that’s won just twice all season and boasts an NFC-worst minus-85 point differential. Tampa has only managed to cover twice in their last 11 games against NFC opponents.
2. The Bears have an explosive offense that features the best tandem of wideouts in the NFL– Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. They should absolutely torch a Tampa secondary that has allowed more passing yards this season than all but two teams leaguewide.
3. Tampa Bay is a team with no identifiable strengths, as they average just 19.4 points per game this season, good for 26th in the league, and have a defense that ranks 30th in points allowed. They simply aren’t well-equipped to win a shootout against a team like Chicago, and when you have a defense like Tampa’s every game tends to turn into a shootout.
Prediction
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