Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 2-7-1 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-4, 7-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -14 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Jacksonville: CB Aaron Colvin (questionable– knee), DE Andre Branch (questionable– groin), G Brandon Linder (questionable– shoulder)
Indianapolis: C Khaled Holmes (questionable– ankle), DT Arthur Jones (questionable– ankle), TE Dwayne Allen (questionable– ankle), RB Ahmad Bradshaw (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
Jacksonville is 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss
Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Indianapolis is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. AFC South opponents
Indianapolis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record
Indianapolis 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss
The OVER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 6-2 in Jacksonville’s last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 10-2 in Indianapolis’ last 12 games overall
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. The Jags are coming off a bye and traveling to Indianapolis, a place where the home team has covered just once in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss. A game like this– a a division game among bitter rivals– will likely be much closer than the 14-point number would lead you to believe.
2. The Colts have been terrible defensively in recent weeks, surrendering 117 combined points in their past 3 games. They’ve allowed more passing yards this season than all but 4 teams leaguewide and have had trouble stopping the run as well. The Jacksonville offense, meanwhile, has improved since the emergence of running back Denard Robinson, who gives the team a legitimate big-play threat out of the backfield.
3. Boy, that’s a lot of points.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have been much, much better than Jacksonville this season– they’ve won more games, they score points, they allow fewer points, and, most importantly, they cruised to a 44-17 win over these same Jaguars when the two teams met back in Week 3. It was the fourth consecutive time that the Colts have beaten the Jags and each meeting has been decided by 17 points or more.
2. Indianapolis has an elite offense that leads the NFL in total yards per game and ranks 3rd in points scored (31 ppg). They should have little trouble against a Jacksonville defense that has surrendered more points this season than every team but Chicago.
3. The Jags are a terrible team, winning just once in 10 games this season and compiling a miserable 2-7-1 record against the spread. Their offense produces just 15.8 points per game and is led by a rookie quarterback who leads the NFL in interceptions, and their defense ranks 26th or worse in every major statistical category. Seven of Jacksonville’s 9 losses have come by double-digits, so bettors who are concerned about laying a double-digit number here should rest easy.
Prediction
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