Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3, 0-3 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -7.5 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: DE Michael Johnson (questionable– ankle), QB Josh McCown (doubtful– thumb), DE Larry English (out– hamstring), LB Mason Foster (out– shoulder)
Pittsburgh: G Ramon Foster (questionable– ankle), LB Ryan Shazier (out– knee), CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 September games
The UNDER is 6-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 8 games following a loss of more than 14 points
The OVER is 4-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. Tampa’s last game, an embarrassing blowout loss to Atlanta, has distorted the perception of this team, resulting in the bloated 7.5-point line. Their first two games were both tooth-and-nail struggles that were much more indicitive of who the Bucs really are.
2. The strength of the Tampa offense is their running game, which features two very talented backs in Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey. The Pittsburgh defense, meanwhile, has been terrible against the run this season, surrendering 130 rushing yards per game.
3. The Bucs should get a boost from quarterback Mike Glennon, who is set to start while veteran Josh McCown recovers from a thumb injury. Glennon was the team’s quarterback throughout most of last season and his performance was better than McCown’s has been this year. When he replaced an injured McCown last week he got the offense moving a bit, and he should find success against a Pittsburgh defense that is surrendering 24 points per game this season.
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers are coming off their best performance of the season, a decisive road victory over Carolina, while the Bucs were beaten 56-14 by Atlanta last week. Tampa is 0-3 with a point differential of -50; only Jacksonville has been worse this season.
2. Pittsburgh has one of the NFL’s better offenses, a unit that ranks 5th in total yards per game and leads the league in rushing yards. The Tampa defense, meanwhile, is allowing 387 yards and 31.7 points per game. Only Jacksonville has surrendered more points this season.
3. The Bucs are dreadfully bad on offense, producing just 271 total yards and 15 points per game. This week they start 2nd-year quarterback Mike Glennon behind the same dysfunctional line that couldn’t keep Josh McCown healthy for 3 games. They have little chance of success against a Pittsburgh defense that shut down the Carolina Panthers last week (you know, the same Carolina team that easily beat the Bucs in Week 1).
Prediction
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