Miami Dolphins (1-2, 1-2 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (0-3, 2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -3.5 (41)
Significant Injuries
Miami: LB Jelani Jenkins (questionable– abdomen), RB Damien Williams (questionable– ankle), LB Koa Misi (doubtful– ankle), G Shelley Smith (doubtful– knee), C Mike Pouncey (doubtful– hip), RB Knowshon Moreno (out– elbow), DT Randy Starks (out– back)
Oakland: LB Miles Burris (questionable– foot), CB Chimdi Chekwa (questionable– knee), LB Nick Roach (questionable– concussion), LB Sio Moore (out– ankle), WR Rod Streater (out– foot)
Recent Trends
Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit home loss
Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Miami is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
Oakland is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC opponents
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Miami’s last 6 games following a loss
The UNDER is 4-1 in Oakland’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins may not have played well over the last two weeks but they’re a much better team than the winless Raiders, who have yet to score more than 14 points in any game this season. Miami ranks higher than Oakland in both total offense and total defense, they’ve actually won a game, and they’ve covered in 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams.
2. The Raiders have the NFL’s worst offense by any measure: they’ve gained fewer yards and scored fewer points than any team in the league. The Dolphins, meanwhile, rank 8th in total defense. Anything more than 10-14 points from the Oakland offense would be a statistical oddity.
3. The Miami offense has definite big play potential with speedy wideout Mike Wallace and a quarterback who, though inconsistent, has looked very good at times in his brief NFL career. Oakland, on the other hand, will be missing their top offensive playmaker (Rod Streater) and starting a rookie at quarterback.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The Raiders have been undervalued this season, covering in 2 of their 3 games despite losing all three. The trend continues this week, as they’re a 3.5-point ‘dog against a Miami team that has been routed in back-to-back weeks. The Dolphins were especially bad last week, losing 34-15 at home to a Kansas City team that had dropped their first two games.
2. The Oakland defense has quietly played well this year, holding 2 of their 3 opponents below 20 points. Last week they suffocated the Tom Brady-led New England offense, limiting the Pats to just 16 points and 297 total yards. Now they get to face the sputtering Miami offense, a unit that has been held to 25 combined points in their last two games.
3. The Dolphins have the “sinking ship” feel to them… they seem to be regressing in coach Joe Philbin’s 3rd year, they’ve covered just once in their last five games, and on Sunday they’ll be without several key performers on both sides of the ball due to injuries. Say what you want about the Raiders, but they’re not regressing– their last game, a 16-9 loss to New England, was their best performance of the season.
Prediction
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