Tennessee Titans (1-2, 1-2 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -7.5 (46)
Significant Injuries
Tennessee: QB Jake Locker (questionable– wrist), TE Delanie Walker (questionable– shoulder), TE Taylor Thompson (questionable– knee)
Indianapolis: C Khaled Holmes (questionable– ankle), G Joe Reitz (questionable– ankle), LB Jerrell Freeman (questionable– hamstring), DT Arthur Jones (questionable– ankle), LB Robert Mathis (out– Achilles)
Recent Trends
Tennessee is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Tennessee is 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. AFC South opponents
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of 14 points or more
Indianapolis is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC South opponents
The UNDER is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-0 in Indianapolis’ last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. The Week 3 results have had a disproportionate effect on the line in this game– the Titans were blasted in Cincinnati, while the Colts rolled to a 44-17 win in Jacksonville. That’s how a 1-2 team is a 7.5-point favorite in a division game, but we must remember that Jacksonville is the NFL’s worst team while Cincinnati just may be the league’s best team. The Titans have already won on the road this season, easily handling Kansas City in Week 1; they have no business getting more than a touchdown from a 1-2 team.
2. The Titans have one of the league’s best secondaries, a unit that has surrendered fewer pass yards per game than all but 1 team leaguewide this season. The Colts, meanwhile, have an offense that is solely dependent on the passing of Andrew Luck. This is a great matchup for the Tennessee defense.
3. Indianapolis has a porous defense that has surrendered 30 points or more in two of their three games this season. They’ll have trouble with the Tennessee passing attack, which features one of the NFL’s best young receivers in Kendall Wright.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts are simply a much better team than the Titans, as anyone who has watched any NFL football over the past year-and-a-half knows perfectly well. Their two losses this season were both close games against elite teams (Denver and Philadelphia), while the Titans have lost their last two games by a combined score of 59-17. Plus, the Colts are always a great bet in division games, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC South opponents.
2. Tennessee just isn’t a reliable team right now; they’ve regressed in each of their three games this season. First-year coach Ken Whisenhunt may not have the full attention of his players yet, or maybe the players just aren’t grasping the new schemes. Whatever the case, it’s clear that the Titans are a team in disarray.
3. The Colts are led by one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks, Andrew Luck, who is off to the best start of his career, averaging 303 pass yards per game. His counterpart in this game, Tennessee’s Jake Locker, is an inconsistent performer who may not even play on Sunday due to a wrist injury. It’s just not going to be possible for the Tennessee offense to keep pace with the Colts, who rank 3rd in both total offense and points scored.
Prediction
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