NAP YOU KNEW TWO DAYS EARLY! Daqman tipped up Mohatem (WON 11-8) in his column on Tuesday before napping it yesterday, his second winning best bet of the week so far.
12-1 HIT TO OPEN BIG MEETING: He made it 11 wins in the four days – three of them in profit – with Der Meister (WON 12-1) for a magic opening to the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting.
FIVE FAB FORECASTS? Daqman has two in each of five races at Newmarket today, tempting for some reverse forecasts with Ladbrokes. He takes on Pricewise in the 2.10 and 3.15, with the score Daqman 101, Pricewise 38.
BANKER AT WORCESTER: Not only is he unable to find Ton-Up or Bull’s-Eye bets on a very trappy HQ card, but his nap for maximum stakes is a banker at Worcester.
BETDAQ: THE ORANGE GLOW OF VALUE
They’ve thrown out the unwanted Silver. Bookmakers – and therefore, the Pricewise column – have no published market in the Racing Post for the Silver Cambridgeshire (5.00), pushed back as it is on the Newmarket card to near the end of the second day (not to be seen on terrestrial TV).
But I can tell you that, if you turn to Oddschecker and have enough accounts to bet on the Best Book (best prices per horse among all 20 displayed there), you would still be betting 100-124 in the layers’ favour.
But the Total SP on the race will be even greater. Last year, it was 135%. At 10 a.m, the BETDAQ ‘book’ (list of offers in the orange) added up to 113%.
Why go elsewhere? Save yourself the trouble of hunting for that Best Book and just float your mouse into the orange glow of value.
OUTSTRIP BETTER THAN THE BARE FORM
1.40 Newmarket The three-year-olds have the edge on the stats and on number of runners, and either Belle d’Or or Provenance will improve enough, no doubt.
The stunning feature of the race on BETDAQ as I write is that the orange market is a level-playing field, with layers and takers evenly matched on a 100% list. The SP total has always been 113-114%.
2.10 Newmarket Again, three-year-olds dominate (seven successes in eight years) and a place in the Park Hill has been the stepping-stone for four winners.
This spells out Criteria strongly enough but, in fact, she is a ’disguised’ filly and could be even better than the stats suggest, since her last two runs may have been wrong trip, wrong ground, or both.
Criteria has already beaten Kallisha and Queen of Ice (holds Island Remede and Jordan Princess) and the rest have won only fair handicaps and ordinary maidens.
The 11.5 Long View must be taken, with a place in mind. Sir Michael Stoute is a dab hand with late-developing fillies and she could improve a lot (though needs to) now that she is off the mark.
2.40 Newmarket (Rockfel Stakes) Jim Bolger likes to raid this race, a habit formed after Finsceal Bio’s success in 2006. He hasn’t had much luck, with a neck second and four out of the frame from five starters since but Lucida looks special today.
Speciosa, Finsceal Bio and Just the Judge all won a 1,000 Guineas – two at Newmarket, one in Ireland – from this late-season trial. All three had come to the race after success in the Pattern, a Listed win or first and second in a Group race.
To take that as today’s criterion would rule out all bar Calypso Beat, Lucida, New Providence and What Say You, though Stroll Patrol (hampered) wasn’t that far adrift of New Providence at Salisbury. The rest have winning form only in maidens and handicaps.
Lucida got very close to Cursory Glance in the Moyglare after that one was runner-up in the Lowther. There is also strong news for What Say You, expected to make up into a Guineas filly, with 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning far too big.
3.15 Newmarket (Joel Stakes) Four-year-olds have outrun horses of the Classic generation in recent years but have only one representative here in Professor, who has been easy to back in two runs this month after disappointing at Goodwood. Now tries a mile.
He finished in front of Team Hannon stablemate Producer (Hughes’ choice) on one bit of form but Producer has twice been behind Captain Cat.
Captain Cat also holds another Hannon runner, Anjaal, though that one started slowly when they met at Salisbury in August.
Hors De Combat, two-and-a-half lengths off Captain Cat at Goodwood, fought out a neck-and-neck finish with Wannabe Yours when that one stepped up from handicaps to complete his hat-trick in August.
A major player though he’s six years old is Group-1 placed and Group-2 winner, Tullius, whose stable is in cracking form but who would prefer some rain and hasn’t been seen such June, suggesting he’s been saved for an autumn campaign on the soft, which he’s not not yet getting.
Outstrip, who was a sick horse after flopping in the Guineas, has also been rested since the summer when he twice saw the heels of Kingman. Similarly, Arod has been seeing the back of Australia.
Connections know that Outstrip is better than the bare form and are aiming high (QE11 and America), so 9.2 on BETDAQ this morning is top value, with Captain Cat the danger.
3.45 Newmarket Godolphin will want to win this with their own Penglai Pavilion, gelded since fifth in the Arc last season, or the Princess Haya’s Nabucco. Both have recent form lapses but this race would have been targeted and I could get 9.2 each of two this morning.
They should find St Leger fourth Windshear hard to beat but he’s always found one to stop him in his last five starts whether a lowly handicapper (Cannock Chase) or a star (Kingston Hill).
5.00 Newmarket (Silver Cambridgeshire) The Classic generation took the first three of these Cambridgeshire consolations until, when they were sparcely represented last year, it was won by an older sort, Bancnuanaheireann, due to run in tomorrow’s big’un.
GM Hopkins has been a glass horse, but has won both his two starts in 15 months. Lacan has also had a quiet time and these two come close together now on their one-two on soft ground in the Spring.
Munaaser disappointed when favourite over a mile bat York but still finished almost on top of the second, allowing for the weight difference. That runner-up was Extremity, one of the favourites for the Cambridgeshire proper tomorrow.
Mange All was leading at today’s trip when just run out of it over further at Doncaster but Munaaser (9.0 on BETDAQ this morning) might have won at York had there been an extra furlong.
Watch Chain of Events in the market! Currently 18.5 and seems to be too high in the handicap but Ryan Moore has been booked and when the Wigham money is down, get on!
GO DUTCH IN THE BETDAQ FINAL
5.20 Haydock (Betdaq Haydock Apprentice Training Series Final) The top six riders on number of winners in the last five turf seasons are Cam Hardie 36, Jacob Butterfield 33, David Muscutt 30 and Shelley Birkett 27, with Jack Garrity and Louis Steward on 27.
Match them up with the leading trainers in that time: David O’Meara 315, Ian Williams, 96, Eric Alston 76, Jonathan Portman 74, Karl Burke 55, Mark Brisbourne 50, Richard Price 47, Ed De Giles 46, Tom Tate 43, Alistair Whillans 42. And you get Hallingham v. Pim Street.
But to reduce this amazing series to a numbers game is to deny the colour and courage of the apprentice scene in in these well supported races which set a Market Puzzle (right Gary!) and will crown the winner as King Of Paradise (you got it, Rachel!)
Market Puzzle is a previous winner of this race and three of the four successful in it have come from the low five stalls. He’s coming out of gate 6 but, with Automotive a ‘nonner’, is one of the first five.
Dansili Dutch will be hard to beat, stepped back up to this trip. So I’m taking top and bottom of the market, as I write: Dansili Dutch 7.6 and Market Puzzle 43.0.
THE NAP: With trainer Charlie Longsdon having just landed a four-timer, I wanted to be on Pied Do Roi (3.25 Worcester) for his five-timer but the word is that Orby’s Man (5.10) is the so-called ‘good thing’ of his pair (famous last words).
TOBY BALDING, A MASSIVE MAN
Not many can do it. To make life work for you, yet be full of fun and rarely lacking in energy. To see the funny side but be able to cut to the chase, literally – including winning the Grand National – with an instinctive understanding and way of handling horses and people.
Uniquely, this massive personality had a quiet, unassuming, disciplined brother, Ian, equally brilliant at the same profession, one on the Flat, one over jumps.
Toby Balding, once retired from training, was greatly missed. He’s now gone when we badly need his kind of injection into the body racing. But do they breed ’em like that anymore?
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 7pts win BELLE D’OR and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) PROVENANCE (1.40 Newmarket)
BET 4.6pts win CRITERIA, and 2pts win and place LONG VIEW (2.10 Newmarket)
BET 2.3pts win and place WHAT SAY YOU and 3.2pts win (stakes saver) LUCIDA (2.40 Newmarket)
BET 5pts win CAPTAIN CAT and 2.4pts win OUTSTRIP (3.15 Newmarket)
BET 2.4pts win on each NABUCCO and PENGLAI PAVILION (3.45 Newmarket)
BET 2pts win BERLUSCA, and 1pt win and place SHOWPIECE (4.10 Haydock)
BET 2.5pts win MUNAASER, and 1pt win and place CHAIN OF EVENTS (5.00 Newmarket)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ORBY’S MAN (5.10 Worcester)
BET 3pts win DANSILI DUTCH and 0.4pts win and place MARKET PUZZLE (5.20 Haydock)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£50 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
