It’s been 50 very long days since Novak Djokovic cemented his place at the top of the men’s game by winning the ATP Tour Finals in London and with the new season just around the corner, few would bet against him starting 2013 in a similar fashion. I’m not one for reading too much into exhibition-type events but rather ominously, Djokovic won on his seasonal reappearance, defeating Spanish pair David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro in the process. Confidence for the Serbian is clearly sky high right now and rightly so. Britain’s Andy Murray (now an OBE) also took part but was comfortably beaten by Djokovic’s fellow Serbian Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets. Clearly not ideal preparation for the Scot but with a few quid pocketed and some valuable court time under his belt, Murray will now be focused on defending his Brisbane title over the next seven days.
Elsewhere in the tennis world, Rafael Nadal’s long-awaited return to the tour will have to be put on hold just a little longer. The Spanish world number four has not hit a competitive tennis ball in anger since his quite remarkable second round defeat to Lukas Rosol at last year’s Wimbledon tournament and due to a stomach virus, Nadal will miss the year’s first Grand Slam in Australia, for which Novak Djokovic is currently a very short priced favourite at 2.2 (6/5) with BETDAQ. Nadal’s plan now appears to revolve around a return to his beloved clay courts at the back end of February, meaning he will drop outside the world’s top four after the Australian Open for the first time since May 2005. It remains to be seen however whether Nadal will return at quite the same level we’ve seen previously, or indeed how his schedule will be impacted by his troublesome knees.
Onto the first week of the 2013 season and we have three 250 (ranking points) events to get our teeth into….
ATP Brisbane
No better place to start than the state capital of Queensland where Brisbane hosts Andy Murray’s return to competitive tennis and the world number three is likely to be an unsurprisingly short-priced favourite for the event he won at his first attempt twelve months ago. Defeat in a meaningless exhibition last week perhaps wasn’t the outcome Murray was hoping for but priceless match experience will stand the Scot in good stead as he looks to defend the points he secured in 2012. It’s understandable that Murray wants to defend his title this week but I suspect he would’ve been forgiven for sticking around in Doha to get his hands on a bigger purse. Nevertheless he finds himself in a most winnable event and should put up a solid defence of his title. As previously pointed out, he’ll be short enough in the betting and I’d be inclined to look elsewhere for a spot of value. 2013 could be a pivotal year in the career of Milos Raonic and it would be no surprise to see the big-serving Canadian lay down a serious maker ahead of the year’s first grand slam in just under a fortnight’s time.
Catching Raonic early in the season could prove fruitful for backers. In his first tournament of 2012, Raonic secured his first outdoor hard court title by beating Janko Tipsarevic in a thrilling three-hour final and could produce the same level of form at an identical time. Raonic ended last season in pretty good shape, demonstrating some solid looking play with a final in Tokyo and a couple of last-eight appearances in a pair of ATP 1000 events in Cincinnati and his native Canada. My only issue with Milos is his sometimes inconsistent performances but make no mistake, Raonic is not a player anybody wants to be facing on this sort of surface and certainly not this early in the season. With points to defend from his tournament win in Chennai and currently sat at his highest ever world ranking (13th), one can only expect a bold showing from the young Canadian this week and is fully deserving of my cash this week.
Selection: Milos Raonic
ATP Chennai
Next up is India’s only ATP event in Chennai and using the same rationale as Milos Raonic above (early season form), Janko Tipsarevic looks the way to go. A beaten finalist in 2012, Tipsarevic had easily his best year on tour last year and will look to push on in 2013. Gunning for his fourth ATP title this week, Tipsarevic showed he is consistent if nothing else in reaching the end of year tour finals for the second straight year and despite not showing his best form, solidified his place amongst the best players on tour.
The participation of Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic, and Stanislas Wawrinka certainly shows that Chennai will take some winning but having avoided both Berdych and Cilic until the final at the very earliest, Tipsarevic should have enough class to advance to at least the last eight, where a likely meeting with the talented (if slightly fragile) Stanislas Wawrinka awaits. The pair have only met the once on the red clay of Rome and it was the Swiss who comprehensively beat Tipsarevic. This surface should level the playing field somewhat and I’d fancy Tipsarevic to turn the tables. Ultimately, I think something around the 4/1 mark about Tipsarevic represents a solid proposition and would entice me more than say 6/4 about Tomas Berdych.
Selection: Janko Tipsarevic
ATP Doha
Finally, the biggest prize pot is on offer in Qatar and it is top seed David Ferrer who tops the betting and it is difficult to argue against him. Seven titles in 2012 was the best of anyone on the ATP Tour last year and Ferrer epitomises everything that a modern day professional tennis player should. Consistency coupled with hard work has served the Spaniard well and a display of anything similar to his 2012 form should see Ferrer secure his first of possibly many more titles in 2013. Standing in Ferrer’s way are the likes of Richard Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Mikhail Youzhny, all of whom should be afforded any level of respect from punters thinking Ferrer is a proverbial ‘sure thing’ this week. I’m encouraged that two of the aforementioned trio are in the opposite side of the draw to Ferrer and without sticking my neck on the line to early in the 2012 season, I’d be very surprised if any of the opposition were good enough to prevent Ferrer from at least reaching the quarter finals. Naturally Ferrer’s price will be reflective of his likely chances this week and anything around the even-money mark or bigger would be an absolute steal this week.
Selection: David Ferrer
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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