ATP Mutua Madrid Open – Friday 4th May until Sunday 13th May 2012
There’s something sadistically gratifying about picking a player to win a tournament one week, only to see him succeed at the very next attempt. That is exactly what happened on Sunday afternoon when Andreas Seppi defeated Benoit Paire to lift the trophy in Belgrade. I knew the Italian had a tournament win in him, hence tipping him up last week for the event in Bucharest. It is just unfortunate the draw didn’t open up for him in Romania, the same way it did in Serbia this past week. He may not have lined our pockets in quite the way I had anticipated. Nevertheless, it shows I’m targeting the right type of player to be winning these ATP 250 events on tour.
Moving onto this week’s event and Madrid hosts the first of two clay court ATP 1000 events in as many weeks and it is the court surface that dominates the build up to the tournament. For the first time at a top-level event, play will take place on blue clay instead of the traditional red stuff, which some players have been particularly outspoken on. Top seed and many people’s idea of the winner this week Rafael Nadal, has described the change as something that shouldn’t have been allowed to occur at an event of this size. Indeed Nadal has been highly critical of the tournament since it was moved in the calendar back in 2009, citing the thin spring air in Madrid negating his game strengths and assisting the opposition. Nadal has openly stated that he is happy with where his game is at present and will enter this week full of confidence. Even so, expressing such dissatisfaction concerning the court surface, in addition to the general environment in which he’s likely to compete this week shows a slight chink in the Spaniard’s armour and I couldn’t sit here with the utmost assurance and suggest that a likely price of around even money demonstrates anything remotely close to value. Instead, I’ll be shining the BETDAQ spotlight on a recent winner and in my opinion, the greatest player ever to grace the game.
Juan Martin Del Potro defended his title in Estoril last week and without showing any disrespect to the opposition, the title defence was never in any doubt. He didn’t lose a set all week and his serve was only broken twice in his four matches. Perhaps the most impressive statistic was that Del Potro didn’t face a single break point against either Wawrinka in the semi final on Saturday or against Gasquet in the final on Sunday and if continuing to serve that well in Madrid this week, he would have an outstanding chance of making the last four at worst. It is highly likely that Nadal would be waiting for the Argentine in the semi final and I wouldn’t necessarily think this would prove to be a foregone conclusion. Many tennis pundits seem to think the altitude this week could make for the play to be that little bit faster and could play to the strengths of Del Potro. I’m encouraged that he has tournament form too having made the last four back in 2009 and I’m looking forward to see if he can carry his Estoril momentum through to Madrid.
Selection # 1 – Juan Martin Del Potro
My second selection this week needs absolutely no introduction, He’s a maestro, a legend, and answers to the name of Roger Federer. Many a tennis column I’ve written waxing lyrical about the Swiss genius, to the point where every superlative has probably been overused, albeit justifiably. Federer has openly stated his desire to regain the top ranking in men’s tennis and I wouldn’t bet against him doing so. Having won the title here in 2006 and 2009, as well as a losing finalist in 2007 and again in 2010, you’d have to say that Federer ticks just about every box. I also think the blue clay is unlikely to deter Federer as his adaptability is arguably one of his greatest strengths. If he can negotiate a tricky-looking second round match against Nalbandian or Raonic, I think he’ll have the measure of the other seeded players within his quarter in Ferrer, Almagro, or Gasquet and I think it is highly likely we’ll see Federer, Djokovic, Del Potro, and Nadal as the last four standing.
Naturally a Del Potro/Federer final would be the ideal outcome. Having said that, if either collapses to the floor in triumph a week today with blue clay all over their back when they rise, the week will have been a successful one.
Selection # 2 – Roger Federer
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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