Philadelphia Eagles (8-3, 7-4 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-3, 6-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -3 (54.5)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: LB Emmanuel Acho (questionable– groin), QB Nick Foles (out– collarbone)
Dallas: DT Josh Brent (questionable– personal), DT Amobi Okoye (out– illness)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Dallas is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last 6 games vs. NFC East opponents
The OVER is 4-1-1 in Dallas’ last 6 games overall
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. The Eagles have played very well lately, winning 3 of their past 4 games and covering in 5 of their past 7, and the Cowboys had lost back-to-back games before pulling out a win over the 1-10 Jacksonville Jaguars and miraculously coming back to beat the 3-8 New York Giants. Dallas simply isn’t as good as their record would indicate and they’ve covered just 3 times in their last 10 home games, so a bet on Philly is the only sensible play here.
2. Philadelphia has one of the league’s very best offenses, a unit that ranks 3rd in points scored (31.1 ppg), 4th in total yards per game (411.8 ypg), and 4th in pass yards per game (293.1 ypg). This week they’ll face a vulnerable Dallas defense that has surrendered 20 points or more in 5 of their past 6 games, including 28 to the struggling Giants last week.
3. Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is literally playing with a broken back (two cracked vertebrae, to be exact), so one hit could send him to the sidelines for the rest of the season. Behind Romo is Brandon Weeden, who has struggled mightily in limited work, so the Cowboys offense is on shaky ground, to say the least. Do you want to trust a hobbled Romo going up against an offense that averages over 30 points per game?
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys have been rolling right along this season, with a loss to NFC West-leading Arizona and an overtime loss to Washington the only blemishes on their record since Week 1. This week they’re facing a team, Philadelphia, that feasts on the dregs of the league but struggles against quality opposition. Seven of Philly’s 8 wins this season have come against teams that currently have losing records, while they’ve covered just once in their last 5 games against teams with winning records.
2. Dallas averages over 387 total yards and 26 points per game, and they should exceed those totals this week against the dreadful Philadelphia defense, a unit that ranks 26th in total yards allowed and has surrendered more passing yards than all but two teams leaguewide. The Eagles have faced exactly two teams that currently rank in the top-10 in points scored– Indianapolis and Green Bay– and they allowed 80 combined points in those two games.
3. The Dallas defense has exceeded expectations this season, as they currently rank in the top-half of the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. They’ll be going up against a backup quarterback this week, and not just any backup– Mark Sanchez, whose history of back-breaking turnovers and general unreliability is well chronicled. Don’t make the mistake of trusting Mark Sanchez with your money.
Prediction
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