PREMIER LEAGUE MONDAY: The Striker previews MANCHESTER UNITED v BRENTFORD with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRENTFORD
8pm We have Monday Night Football from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week as Manchester United host Brentford at Old Trafford! This should be a very interesting game, and every game is massive at the moment for Brentford as they push for a European spot. A win here would see them jump over Chelsea, Bournemouth and Brighton into a Europa League spot, which would be a huge achievement for Brentford. Even Europa Conference League would be fantastic. Keith Andrews has done a wonderful job at Brentford this season, but they have a tough task here against a United side that has been the transformation under Michael Carrick.
As you would expect with home advantage, United come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.89 with Brentford 4.2 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Carrick has won eight of his twelve Premier League games in charge – half of United’s total wins for the entire season. The conversation around the dugout has shifted dramatically; he is now widely considered the favourite to be handed the job permanently in the summer. He is popular with the players, knows the club inside out, has a solid experienced coaching staff around him, and the fans are fully behind him. The transformation in atmosphere at Old Trafford tells its own story. The thing is though; we’ve seen this before from United – the vibes are always fantastic when a new manager comes in and then it all goes wrong in the second season. He will likely get the job; but will United keep playing like this?
The signs have been extremely positive for United this season, even when Ruben Amorim was there. Their average xG created of 1.75 is the joint-second best attacking figure in the Premier League this season only behind Manchester City, and their average xG conceded of 1.34 is fifth best defensively. They actually topped the attacking table for most of the season. Bruno Fernandes has been central to that I saw a stat that he had 109 key passes this season, he has played nearly 50 more key passes than any other player in the Premier League. He is three assists away from breaking the all time Premier League record for assists in a single season, which would be an incredible achievement in fairness and perhaps that is going under the radar this season too.
Brentford are obviously having a wonderful season results wise, but there are red flags to be concerned about. When Thomas Frank departed for Spurs in the summer, they actually traded pretty short for relegation at the start of the season – Keith Andrews appointment was met with widespread scepticism at the time. He’s obviously done incredibly well; potentially a first ever European campaign in their history. However, their performance levels are clearly saying that they are over-performing. Brentford’s average xG created of 1.27 is the fifth worst attacking figure in the Premier League, while their average xG conceded of 1.47 is the seventh worst defensive figure. If they get European football, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them go the same way Nottingham Forest have done when they over-performed. Carnage next season as results reflect performance levels; maybe even a relegation battle.
On the xG data, United are clearly the superior side. However, you have to take on board the fact that Brentford have been able to grind out so many results this season. United did get beaten in their last home game by Leeds too. All that considered, I still feel the 1.89 is far too big on United here – they have been playing some excellent football this season and I’d have them trading sub 1.8. I feel we’re getting enough value for a Five Star NAP to start the week!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester United to beat Brentford at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLMuBt
