FA CUP FIFTH ROUND: The Striker previews NOTTINGHAM FOREST v IPSWICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V IPSWICH
7.30pm We finish the FA Cup Sixth Round on Monday night with another all Premier League clash on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Nottingham Forest host Ipswich. This is a game that most English football fans will be expecting Forest to win given the season they are having, but they have hit a few bumps in the road recently. That being said, Ipswich have been playing pretty average football, and they are heading back down to the Championship while Forest try to cling onto a Top Four finish – which would be an incredible achievement to be honest.
As you would expect given how the sides have played this season and home advantage, Nottingham Forest come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.73 with Ipswich 5.2 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. Forest are having an incredible season, but there are some major red flags in their performance levels which is why there are plenty of willing layers. They’ve been conceding a lot of goals lately, and perhaps we’re finally seeing sides take their chances against them. Forest have an average xG conceded of 1.61 this season, which is actually in the bottom six defensive figures in the Premier League.
Whether it’s been through luck, ability to just survive the difficult moments or sides just purely not converting their chances against them – Forest have been conceding much less than they should. Their actual goals conceded average is 1.22, that’s a big difference and a lot of points earned. To compare; Ipswich have an average xG conceded of 1.68 which is only 0.07 worse than Forest, however they are in the relegation zone. Forest have conceded twelve goals in their last six Premier League games, and two of those have been clean sheets as well.
There’s no getting away from that fact that Ipswich have been quite poor this season – they have the worst attacking record in the Premier League with an average xG created of just 1.08 this season. That drops to 0.91 away from home too. For that reason, I wouldn’t be rushing to take on Forest but I do feel that the 1.73 doesn’t jump off the page as good value here – they will likely get the job done but it’s hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter given the volume of chances they are conceding.
We have two sides here who are conceding a lot, and we should see a reasonably open game. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market and focus on goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.84 and Both Teams To Score is the same price at the moment. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I feel there’s marginally more value in the Both Teams To Score bet.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FANoIp
