SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s matches with the action underway at 3pm. All games include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V WOLVES
3pm We kick off December in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with a very interesting Saturday fixture list! We don’t have an early kick off this week, but we do have five fixtures to get our teeth into. We have three 3pm games, and we start the day with Arsenal hosting Wolves. Most footballs fans will assume this will be a routine win for Arsenal, and they are trading as the shortest price of the day. The Gunners are 1.32 to win at the time of writing with Wolves 12.0 and the draw is 6.0. With Manchester City and Liverpool drawing against each other last weekend, Arsenal went top of the table with a win over Brentford. They had to work exceptionally hard for that win with the goal not coming until the 89th minute but that was another example of Arsenal grinding out away wins and getting the job done. That is something Arteta has brought to this squad – a backbone away from home! This is a fixture that Arsenal have always done well in; at home to a side a level or two below – they usually just outclass the opposition in games like this. The 1.32 isn’t a price that I will tip of course, but it’s a nice addition to any Acca this weekend.
The Outright market for the Premier League has been very interesting lately. Obviously Manchester City have remained odds on favourites, but Arsenal and Liverpool have been chopping and changing as second favourites. After last weekend, now Arsenal are back as second favourites. Based on performance levels, I would agree with that. Obviously City are in a league of their own, but Arsenal are next best with an overall performance level of +0.81. This is a good bit ahead of Liverpool at +0.54. Liverpool create more chances, but Arsenal are much more solid at the back. Arsenal have the best defensive performance record in the Premier League; their average xG conceded is just 0.90. With Wolves only creating an average xG of 1.13, which puts them in the bottom six attacking wise, I feel Arsenal can keep a clean sheet here on the way to winning. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.78 and that looks a standout bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsWlv
BRENTFORD V LUTON TOWN
3pm Next we have Brentford hosting Luton Town, and this is an interesting market. On paper, this is a fixture that Brentford should win. They are the heavy odds on favourites at 1.51 with Luton Town 7.4 and the draw is 4.7. The thing about Brentford this season however is they have struggled to win games. Only four wins from 13 games isn’t a great record, especially considering they haven’t really bumped into the big sides until recently. They have put back-to-back losses together against Liverpool and Arsenal, but you can forgive them that very easily. It’s been disappointing that they couldn’t beat the likes of Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Everton here. I know Luton have been playing very average football this season, but I wouldn’t be rushing to get on Brentford at 1.51. For me that price is a little short – their average xG created is 1.45 which is mid-table form but they are conceding a bigger average at 1.52. They will finish in mid-table this season with that level.
As we all know, Luton will have a relegation battle on their hands. They have been heavily odds on to get relegated back down to the Championship all season. However, a win over Crystal Palace last weekend was surely a huge boost for morale and for the time being it gives them a four point advantage over the bottom three. You’d still expect Everton to go past them at some stage, but in fairness to Luton they aren’t going down without a fight. They are still creating an average xG of under 1.0 this season though, and when you can also conceding an average xG of close to 2.0 you can see why they have massive issues. I’m going to stay out of the match odds market here, and this game screams goals in my opinion. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 and I feel we’re getting a lot of value here. Both sides have been conceding chances left, right and centre this season and while I know Luton are limited going forward they will still get plenty of chances here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-2 or 3-3 here! Overs is a very confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreLut
BURNLEY V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We finish the 3pm games with an absolutely massive game in the relegation battle as Burnley host Sheffield United! Both sides are currently odds on to go back down to the Championship, but from the two Burnley have a fighting chance of staying up even though they start the weekend sitting bottom of the table. To be honest, it would be a surprise if the three sides who came up this season didn’t go back down, but obviously Everton’s ten point deduction has thrown a spanner in the works. Everton are playing some pretty good football this season, so it would be a surprise if they didn’t climb out of the bottom three again. Nevertheless, this is an absolutely must win game for Burnley as they have home advantage – if they are going to have a decent chance of staying up then this is a fixture they simply have to win. Burnley come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers. The home win is trading 1.89 at the time of writing with Sheffield United 4.8 and the draw is 3.75.
Both sides have been playing poor football this season, and they deserve to be sitting in the bottom three. Both of them are averaging an xG created of under 1.0, two of only three sides (the other being Luton Town) who are creating so little. Burnley have been a lot more solid at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.58 compared to Sheffield United’s 1.99 which is the worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. Sheffield United actually have an overall performance figure of -1.20 which is the worst figure of any side in the major leagues around Europe. No other side actually has a performance figure worse than 1.0 in Italy, Spain, Germany or France. Obviously we have two very limited sides here, but it’s hard to support Sheffield United against any side at the moment. I’m definitely keeping stakes low here, but the 1.89 on Burnley is big enough to back here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Burnley to beat Sheffield United at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurShe
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V EVERTON
5.30pm We have another game that will have a big impact on the relegation battle here as Nottingham Forest host Everton. We have the most open market of the day with Everton coming into the game as the slight favourites. They are trading 2.72 at the time of writing with Nottingham Forest 2.9 and the draw is 3.4. I’m sure Everton are still dealing with the ten point deduction, and that has left them sitting in the relegation zone. Obviously they are under immense pressure again after it looked like they wouldn’t be involved in the relegation battle this season, but they are playing some nice football. As I said in the game above, it would be a surprise if Everton didn’t climb out of the relegation zone because they are creating an average xG of 1.55 this season. That’s mid-table form, maybe just outside of the European spots; for example Newcastle’s average xG created is 1.53 and Manchester United’s is 1.52 – that’s the level they have been playing at and it’s a mile away from relegation form.
Compare that attacking figure to Nottingham Forest who have an average xG created of 1.09. That’s the worst figure outside of the three sides odds on to go down this season; Sheffield United, Luton Town and Burnley. Everton have also been a lot more solid at the back compared to Forest, and I have to say the 2.72 feels a little big on Everton. They have been playing much better football compared to Forest this season, but their away performances have been to a lower standard compared to their home form. Forest have been marginally better at home this season too compared to away from home, but their performances haven’t been that strong. You have to give them big credit for grinding out results though, and I’m happy to keep stakes limited on my Everton bet here but the 2.72 does offer some nice value.
The Striker Says:
One point win Everton to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotEvr
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm We finish later than usual this Saturday as Newcastle host Manchester United. These two sides had to settle for draws midweek in the Champions League, and both had dramatic circumstances too! PSG scored a penalty in the 98th minute for a 1-1 draw with Newcastle while Manchester United threw away a two goal lead twice to draw 3-3 with Galatasaray. United still have a chance of getting through, but they play Bayern Munich in the final fixture and currently sit bottom of the table. Newcastle are in a better position, but their Group is still massively open between PSG, themselves and AC Milan. It’s a sign of the times that Newcastle come into this game as the clear favourites. Newcastle are trading 2.02 with Manchester United 3.9 and the draw is 3.85. As I mentioned in the Everton game above, these two have very similar average xG figures – Newcastle are creating an average of 1.53 with United just below them at 1.52. Where the big difference comes is at the back – United have been conceding plenty of chances this season. Their average xG conceded is 1.53 while Newcastle come in at 1.24. United actually have one more point than Newcastle, but it is Newcastle that have been playing the better football.
The market is shrewd too; it doesn’t factor in United have got more points it focuses on performance levels. It’s hard to have much faith in this United side this season – they have come up short in all the big games and they have made hard work of beating average sides too. They did really well last weekend to beat Everton 3-0, but that was a rare win without any stress for United fans! A big worry here too has to be United’s away form; they are conceding more than they are creating by a bigger margin away from home. While Newcastle have been rock solid at the back at home; their average xG conceded at home is only 1.13. I would definitely lean towards Newcastle at 2.02, but Over 2.5 goals looks a nice bet at 1.8. This game screams goals in my opinion; United have been so open this season it’s hard not to see goals here! Newcastle have played a very attacking game too, especially at home, and I can’t see United sitting back. At 1.8, I feel Overs is worth a Max Bet to finish the day!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcMun
