SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v UNION BERLIN, REAL MADRID v GRANADA and AC MILAN v FROSINONE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V UNION BERLIN
2.30pm We have a cracking Saturday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE from Europe! We have some top class action from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A with Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and AC Milan all in action. We kick off the day with Bayern Munich hosting Union Berlin – this time last season this would have been a top of the table clash, but Union Berlin are having a shocker this season. It’s actually hard to believe Union Berlin finished fourth last season, they are playing Champions League football midweek but they currently sit in the relegation zone! They’ve only managed seven points from their 12 games this season; two wins and one draw. With that kind of form, most football fans will expect this to be a routine win for Bayern Munich and the market agrees. They come into this game the exceptionally heavy odds on favourites – they are trading as short as 1.16 at the time of writing which is the shortest price of any side in Europe’s major leagues this weekend. Real Madrid are trading exceptionally short later in the day too, but Bayern take the title for shortest price!
Not only have things been going badly for Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, but they are out of the Champions League too with just two points from five games. They were always going to be up against it in a Group with Real Madrid and Napoli in fairness. The Union Berlin story is actually incredible; a few years ago they were in a position where fans gave their labour for free – to finish in the top four was a remarkable story. They simply have to avoid relegation this season to throw all the progress away! Union Berlin were very lucky to finish in the top four last season in fairness; it was built on being rock solid at the back and having some great form at home. They never really created a lot – their average xG created was only 1.24; they are actually creating more this season at 1.39! They aren’t taking those chances though, and they are conceding a lot of sloppy goals – way more than they should if you look at their xG conceded. The reality is they are having a terrible time at the back, and Bayern is the last place you want to come. I can see Union being very cagey and negative here, and Bayern can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning – Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.78.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayBer
REAL MADRID V GRANADA
5.30pm Next we move to La Liga as Real Madrid host Granada. I mentioned above in the Bayern Munich game that Real Madrid were also exceptionally short favourites this weekend, and they are trading as short as 1.17 at the time of writing! That’s only one tick off Bayern at 1.16 for the shortest price of the weekend title; I’m sure they would make a good double this weekend! If you fancy a shock here, Granada 19.0 with the draw trading 10.0. This should be a routine win for Real in my opinion; the only major question here is how many goals they score – or indeed how many goals Jude Bellingham can score because he’s been in unstoppable form. Girona finally dropped points on Monday night, so Real Madrid went back to the top of the table. Granada are the opposite end of the table and they start the weekend sitting in the relegation zone. They are seemingly in big trouble – only one win from their 14 games but they are still within touching distance with only three points to 17th. On the overall under-lining numbers, Granada are the fourth worst performing side in La Liga – their average xG created is only 1.17 and they are conceding an average of 1.54.
Not exceptionally back figures, but when you put them together you’re getting yourself into a relegation battle. The gulf in class between the sides here is absolutely massive – Real Madrid are creating an average xG of 2.04 this season – the only side in La Liga currently with an average over 2.0. Not only have they been fantastic going forward, they have been solid at the back too – their average xG conceded of 1.22 is the second best in the league behind Barcelona. This is a case of how many goals Real will score rather than will they win in my opinion – from the 18 meetings between the sides, Real Madrid have won 17 times! What is interesting from a handicap point of view is Real only managed a 1-0 last season with home advantage, but they are playing so well I expect the goals to flow here. The 1.51 on Real -1.5 goals is simply too big to ignore here, and it’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Real Madrid -1.5 goals to beat Granada at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaGra
AC MILAN V FROSINONE
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Saturday as AC Milan host Frosinone. This is a must win game for AC Milan as they try to keep in touch of Inter Milan and Juventus in the top two spots; a little gap as formed between the top two and the rest – plus they have Napoli behind them and they are playing some great football, just not getting the results at the moment. On paper, AC Milan will be expected to win here with Frosinone coming up from Serie B last season, but Frosinone will be very happy with their start to the Serie A season. They start the weekend sitting safely in mid-table with a massive cushion of eight points on the relegation zone. Coming up from Serie B, surely the sole aim this season was to stay up and they are going a good job at the moment. There are definitely some red flags however; their average xG created is only 1.12 which is a pretty poor figure. It’s not the worst in Serie A, but there’s definitely room for improvement there. They are also conceding an average xG of 1.65 which makes them the second worst side at the back in Serie A this season – another area to improve!
You have to give Frosinone credit for grinding out results, but they will definitely struggle if they keep their performance level. At the moment, they are scoring more goals than their xG and that won’t last forever. The thing about AC Milan here though is that they aren’t exactly playing superb football; their average xG is only 1.35 and they are conceding an average of 1.3. That’s basically a mid-table standard and you wouldn’t be surprised if they fell out of the top four as the season went on. They still come into this game as the odds on favourites – the home win is trading 1.47 with Frosinone 8.2 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. Frosinone have been very average, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.47 on AC Milan given their chances created this season. Even at home, their average xG created is 1.36 which is a pretty low figure. I can see AC Milan having to work very hard to win here, and Under 2.5 goals is an appealing bet at 2.26. I’m happy to keep stakes low here, but I’d have Unders a few ticks shorter.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmFro