SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s games starting with MANCHESTER CITY v EVERTON including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V EVERTON
12.30pm It’s a massive Saturday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a whopping seven fixtures to go through and plenty of talking points. We start the day with Manchester City hosting Everton, and it was a brilliant weekend for City last weekend. Arsenal beat Liverpool to “get back” into the title race, but what it really did was gift the advantage to City in my opinion. Pep Guardiola’s men are only two points behind Liverpool now with a game in hand – they are level on points with Arsenal, but also have a game in hand on them too. With Kevin De Bruyne back it just feels inevitable that City are going to take over at the top of the table this month. On paper, their fixture list is pretty easy and they are going to start long odds on favourites for every game. They will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing, if you fancy a shock then Everton are 16.0 with the draw 8.2. Given the last few weeks, I feel this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win.
That’s taking nothing away from Everton either; it just feels like City are really starting their charge towards the title. We’ve seen this before of course. Everton are definitely under pressure, but getting points away to Manchester City isn’t really factored in when considering how likely it is that they stay up or not – anything here is a complete bonus. Everton haven’t been playing bad football this season, but obviously the ten point deduction is a hammer blow. They slipped into the relegation zone with Luton’s recent win, and they could actually end up in a poor position with Luton at home to Sheffield United today too. Away from home, Everton have been conceding more chances than they have been creating, their average xG conceded is 1.53 which is reasonable high, and you just know City can take advantage of that. I feel they can cover the Handicap here, and the 1.66 -1.5 goals is worth backing to start the weekend!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Everton at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncEve
FULHAM V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have a very busy afternoon ahead with five fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Fulham hosting Bournemouth. This is the most open market of the day, and Fulham come into the game as the favourites with home advantage. The home win is trading 2.5 with Bournemouth 3.0 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Fulham have played one more game than Bournemouth, but there’s only a point between the sides as they sit beside each other in the table. Both will be reasonably happy; there’s absolutely no danger of a relegation battle and let’s be honest – neither are good enough to challenge for European spots so mid-table is their place. While there’s exceptionally little between the sides points wise, there’s also exceptionally little between them performance level wise! Their stats are very similar. Bournemouth have a marginally higher average xG created – their figure is 1.42 compared to Fulham at 1.36. They are both within 0.01 of each other at the back; Bournemouth have an average xG conceded of 1.55 and for Fulham it’s 1.54.
On paper, this should be a very close game and you’d have to agree with the market in having such an open betting heat. What could be the difference however is home advantage for Fulham; their home and away stats have been very different this season! Away from home they have been conceding a huge amount of chances – their average xG conceded away is a whopping 1.81 compared to only 1.25 at home. They have also really struggled to create chances away from home as well. Bournemouth have created a good level of chances this season, but you can clearly see looking at their stats that they like to play a very open game. I couldn’t put anyone off the draw at 3.7 but I can see a very end-to-end game here with plenty of chances and Both Teams To Score looks a nice position at 1.65 in what should be a very open game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FlmBou
LIVERPOOL V BURNLEY
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the weekend in the Premier League as Liverpool host Burnley. Even with Manchester City at home this weekend to another side in the relegation zone, Liverpool are the shortest price. In fairness, there’s a big gulf in class performance level wise between Everton and Burnley this season. Liverpool will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game trading as short as 1.18 at the time of writing. It’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable Liverpool win, but if you fancy a shock then Burnley are 19.5 with the draw 9.8. After the blow of losing to Arsenal last weekend and suffering a big dent in their title challenge, this is the ideal fixture for Liverpool to bounce back in. Burnley just haven’t been up to Premier League standard this season. They have had issues all over the pitch, and their stats are obviously very poor. Their average xG conceded is only 0.95 this season – only one of three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0 this season. The other two being Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United.
They have been poor at the back too. Their average xG conceded is 1.62 which is the fourth worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Put everything together and their chances of staying up are very slim, and decreasing each week. With Luton winning games recently, Burnley start this weekend seven points off Luton in 17th having played a game more too. They face one of the best attacking sides in Europe here too; Liverpool’s average xG created this season is a massive 2.08. Not many sides have an average xG of over 2.0, and obviously the Premier League is the best league in the world too. I feel this is a case of how many goals can Liverpool score, and they can score plenty here. Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more goals and win) looks a nice position at 2.7 in the Correct Score market. An early goal should see the floodgates over.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivBny
LUTON TOWN V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm It might not be the highest quality game of football this weekend, but I feel Luton Town v Sheffield United is the most important game this weekend! I think it’s more important for Luton too because they have a realistic chance of staying up now against all the odds, whereas Sheffield United look nailed on to go down already. They just haven’t been good enough all season and they’ve spent a lot of time nailed to the bottom of the table too; they are going to start this game ten points behind Luton. I just can’t see them closing that gap to even get back in the mix to fight to stay up. On the other hand, Luton have been on their best run of the season recently. Three wins in six games, along with two draws means they are finally out of the bottom three. I think everyone expects Everton to go past them at some stage given the quality of football they have played, but that ten point deduction is a big blow and you never know what the pressure does now. I do feel however, if Luton are to stay up then Nottingham Forest are likely to take that third and final spot in the bottom three along with Sheffield United and Burnley.
Luton come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, which hasn’t happened often this season! It’s very likely that this is the only game they start as odds on favourites this season – the home win is trading 1.79 with Sheffield United 5.0 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. As I have been saying over the last number of weeks, Sheffield United aren’t just the worst side in the Premier League – stats wise they are the worst side from any of the top leagues in Europe. Their overall performance figure of -1.02 makes for grim reading; they are the worst side going forward, and at the back! Luton also have massive issues at the back, they are the second worst side defensively but they do have massive momentum coming into this game and they have found their goal scoring boots too. I’m definitely keep stakes small in this one, but it feels like an ideal time for Luton to have this fixture and add another three points to their recent tally.
The Striker Says:
One point win Luton Town to beat Sheffield United at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutShe
TOTTENHAM V BRIGHTON
3pm While I said above that Luton Town v Sheffield United is my most important game of the weekend, Spurs v Brighton could easily be the most entertaining. It’s a shame is hasn’t got a TV slot this weekend! We have two sides here who have been absolutely fantastic going forward this season, but they’ve also been very poor at the back too. It’s hard not to see drama and goals in an end-to-end-game! Both sides have average xG created figures in the top five of the Premier League; only behind Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal. Spurs have been marginally better going forward with an average xG created of 1.79 while for Brighton it’s 1.71. They’ve both been open at the back too. Spurs average xG conceded is 1.45 while for Brighton it’s 1.32 – Brighton have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season though. Their actual goals conceded figure is very high at 1.65, and it’s also not a surprise to see Spurs have been conceding more goals than they should too. Basically, we just have two sides here who switch off at the back from time-to-time and that just causes mistakes and problems – and headaches for the managers no doubt!
Spurs come into the game as the odds on favourites with the home win trading 1.88 with Brighton 4.0 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. I think it’s fair to say that both sides have been hard to trust, obviously Spurs have made improvement under Ange Postecoglou but something “Spursy” as they say is still never far away! I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because I feel this game absolutely screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.44 and while it’s clearly a price that suggests the market is expecting goals, I still feel it offers value at the odds. Brighton have only managed to keep two clean sheets in the Premier League this season, they scored four against Crystal Palace last weekend but shipped four goals to Luton before that! Spurs have been very open at home, and I can’t see past goals here. It’s my most confident bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TtmBha
WOLVES V BRENTFORD
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Brentford. This should be an interesting game, Wolves are definitely favourites but they aren’t a side you could be very confident on. Brentford are having a poor season though, and they seem there for the taking. Wolves have managed to collect ten more points than Brentford, who actually aren’t far away from the relegation battle. Obviously they are “too good to go down” on paper, but they start the weekend only two points away from the relegation zone. Obviously Everton will be expected to lose against Manchester City but a win for Luton at home against Sheffield United could see them jump over Brentford should they lose here. As you would expect given they have home advantage and Brentford’s results this year, Wolves come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.18 with Brentford 3.5 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Wolves have been massively over-performing in front of goal this season – their average xG created is only 1.14 but their actual goals scored average is 1.61.
That’s quite a difference, and eventually they will stop scoring from awkward angles – that’s just probability. For the time being however, they are playing with plenty of confidence – as highlighted by them putting away Chelsea last weekend pretty easily. Brentford are the opposite when it comes to confidence levels – they have really struggled for wins this season and have had major issues at the back. Their average xG conceded is high, but they’ve been conceding more goals than they should too because they’ve made so many mistakes. Wolves aren’t a side that I’d like to back at short odds, however Brentford aren’t a side to support at the moment. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market – Both Teams To Score is trading 1.69 and that looks a nice position. Both teams have scored in Brentford’s last six Premier League games, while for Wolves it’s four from their last six. We should have plenty of mistakes from both sides, and the 1.69 is too big.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolBrt
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We finish Saturday with a very interesting market as Nottingham Forest host Newcastle. This game could be absolutely key in the relegation battle too; obviously Luton Town v Sheffield United is going to have a big impact on the situation – especially whether or not Luton win. As I said above, I think if Luton are going to survive this season I feel it has to be Nottingham Forest going down. Everton are obviously in trouble, but they are playing to a much better level than Forest. That new manager bounce was absolutely needed for Forest – we would be having a much different conversation without the six points from Newcastle and Manchester United! They meet Newcastle again here relatively quickly, and this time they have home advantage which is important given Newcastle’s problems away from home this season. Newcastle beat Aston Villa 3-1 in their last away game which surely would have given them massive confidence – it was only their second win away from home in the Premier League all season! Just when you thought that might give them a boost, they drew 4-4 with Luton at home!
There’s a big gulf in performance level between the sides, even with Newcastle dropping their level a lot this season. Nottingham Forest have an average xG created of only 0.94 which is the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League – one of only three sides with an average xG under 1.0. Newcastle might give them chances here though; their average xG conceded away from home this season is 1.78 which is exceptionally high. You can understand why Newcastle aren’t trading odds on; they are 2.16 with Nottingham Forest 3.6 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I’m definitely going to keep stakes low on this one, especially because of Newcastle’s away form, however the 2.16 is on the big side for me. Forest have been very poor this season; they have been just as bad as Newcastle at the back but Newcastle have been better going forward. I feel a small bet at 2.16 is a good way to end the day.
The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotNwc
