SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ROMA v INTER MILAN, BAYER LEVERKUSEN v BAYERN MUNICH and PSG v LILLE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V INTER MILAN
5pm Some Saturdays from Europe are better than others, and this is one straight from the top drawer on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! All eyes will be on the top of the table clash in the Bundesliga between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, but we kick off the action in Serie A as Roma host Inter Milan. Last weekend was massive in the title race for Inter Milan as they beat Juventus to move four points clear. As I said in my preview of that game, that was a fixture that Juventus needed to win because Inter also have a game in hand. There is definitely a big difference in their performance levels this season, and we were all just waiting for Inter to take over in the title race to be honest. Another win here would see them put the rubber stamp on that; they do face a tricky fixture here. We all know the atmosphere will be superb, and Roma seem to be flying since the Jose Mourinho sacking. It does seem strange because it felt like all the players loved him, but they’ve put three wins together capped by a smooth 4-0 win over Cagliari. Before we get too carried away though, they have had a very easy fixture list. They’re run came against three of the bottom four.
Inter Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites, but it’s very marginal at the moment! Inter Milan are trading 1.98 with Roma 4.6 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Inter had to grind out a 1-0 win last weekend against Juventus, and you’d have to expect another classic Italian cagey game here. I know Mourinho is gone now so the season long stats might change going forward; however we have the best two sides at the back here. Inter have an average xG conceded of 1.08 while for Roma it’s 1.13 – that’s the two best defensive figures in Serie A. Where the sides have a massive difference is in attack; Inter’s average xG created is 1.78 while Roma’s is only 1.29. The 1.98 is tempting on Inter, but Under 2.5 goals looks a great bet at 1.7. The last two meetings between the sides have finished with Under 2.5 goals and the under-lining numbers suggest a very cagey game here. Roma would be happy with a draw too, so their mindset will be quite negative and as I said, Inter will have to grind out a win.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaInt
BAYER LEVERKUSEN V BAYERN MUNICH
5.30pm Next we move to the Bundesliga for the biggest clash of the weekend in Europe! Bayer Leverkusen host Bayern Munich in a top of the table clash with just two points between the sides. It’s been a fascinating situation in the Bundesliga this season with Bayer Leverkusen playing some excellent football; but now is the acid test to see can they hold off Bayern Munich. Leverkusen have yet to be beaten this season, they have drawn four times – against Bayern Munich, Dortmund and Stuttgart who all sit within the top four. The massively disappointing result came recently in a 0-0 draw against Gladbach here which let Bayern close the gap down to two points. They finished that game with an xG created of 3.01 – it was just one of those games that the ball didn’t find the back of the net – you couldn’t fault the performance. With Bayern’s record in the Bundesliga, and especially after they managed to win the title on the final day last season too when it was in Dortmund’s hands, I feel like we’re all just waiting for Bayern to take over at some stage. However, you cannot knock Leverkusen this season, they have been exceptional and will give Bayern a massive test. I do feel from a belief and morale point of view, not even allowing for the fact Bayern will overtake them, Leverkusen can’t afford to lose here.
We have an exceptionally open betting heat. Bayern come into the game as the favourites but there’s only ten ticks between the sides. Bayern Munich are trading 2.62 with Bayer Leverkusen 2.72 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. It’s clear that we have the best two sides in the league here – I know the table reflect that but the under-lining numbers show them as miles ahead. They are the only two sides with an average xG of over 2.0, and they both have the two best defensive records as well. It’s hard to pick holes in either of them, and this seems a game that will be won by a moment of magic or some drama along the way. For me though, I feel the draw is a massive price at 3.95. I would have the market even more open with the two sides a little bigger and the draw shorter; it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game here. Plus, a draw isn’t a bad result for the home side.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BynBay
PSG V LILLE
8pm We move over to Ligue 1 to finish Saturday from Europe as PSG host Lille. As expected, PSG are starting to pull away from their rivals after a slow start to the season. They now have an eight point lead, but let’s be honest – anything other than a smooth PSG win in Ligue 1 would be a major shock. They will be judged on their performance in the Champions League which is coming up soon – they meet Real Sociedad in the Last 16 next week. That’s a tie that they should come through. Lille have been having a good season in Ligue 1, and they currently sit in the top four; however Ligue 1 got an extra Champions League spot so they can push for that third spot this season. They start this weekend one point behind Brest in that race. PSG will be expected to win, but obviously this is one of their more difficult Ligue 1 fixtures. They come into the game trading 1.6 with Lille 6.4 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. This is effectively attack v defence – PSG have the best attacking figure in Ligue 1 while Lille have the second best defensive figure. Away from home too, you’d expect Lille to take a very cagey approach and make PSG work very hard for the win.
With Lille focusing on being solid at the back, they haven’t been one of the best attacking sides in Ligue 1 this season. Their average xG created is 1.46 which is basically the high end of mid-table in France. Lille managed to hold PSG to a 1-1 draw when the sides last met, but usually we see plenty of action when the sides meet. PSG have won 4-3, 7-1 and 5-1 in the three meetings previously! Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 here and I’m sure we’ll see some big opinion either side of the book on that market – Lille’s record at the back would attract punters to Unders but obviously the long-term track record between the sides puts me off the Unders bet. I much prefer the PSG bet at 1.6 – there are levels between the sides going forward and the 1.6 is a little too big for me with home advantage. PSG have an average xG created at home of 1.93 which is very impressive – add that to the fact their average xG conceded is only 1.0 at home too and I’d have them closer to 1.5 here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win PSG to beat Lille at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgLle
